The Leach Effect

With the UCLA job opening up, we are hearing Leach-talk again. And I am again hearing from the ignorant masses that what Leach did at Texas Tech wasn't all that impressive - e.g., he may have scored a lot of points, but he never won a conference championship. This view is the result of ignorance and bias, and I hope to do my part to relieve that.

1) Tech was more than a quick strike offense. Leach was consistently winning 9 games against a very difficult schedule, and that takes more than a high-flying offense. People forget that Tech was playing in the best offensive division in the country and they gave up a few points as a result, but the Tech D was getting better. Since Tubberville's arrival, the opponent's numbers on the scoreboard have gotten bigger, not smaller. 

2) Have you ever been to Lubbock? To criticize Leach for not winning a Big 12 title is missing the point. That he was competing for a Big 12 South title against OU and Texas in less than a decade after arriving is remarkable - west Texas has more cows than people, let alone D1 talent. Leach was worth at least 2 wins a season during his stay and the program was on its way up. 

Vegas vs. CFBTN Week 13

CFBTN and Vegas disagree by more than 4 points on only 4 games this week. CFBTN likes the home team in each one, and in a couple of cases by a good margin. 

CFBTN vs. Vegas Week 12

CFBTN and Vegas disagree on five teams by more than a touchdown this week.

Vegas and CFBTN are within a touchdown on every game this week. Highlighted games are those where the two disagree by more than four points.

CFBTN predicts future. . . line moves

I've been noticing a pattern this season. When CFBTN and Vegas disagree, the line tends to move to be closer to the CFBTN prediction. In fact, in week 11, the CFBTN-line open and current line-line open had a correlation of .498. What does this mean? People tend to bet the same side that CFBTN is predicting . . . but that doesn't mean either of us is right.

CFBTN vs. Vegas

CFBTN and Vegas disagree on five teams by more than a touchdown this week.

Vegas and CFBTN are within a touchdown on every game this week. Highlighted games are those where the two disagree by more than five points.

CFBTN vs. Vegas week 10

The first chart has individual team point totals. CFBTN predicts more points for teams above the line than Vegas does. The second chart is points margins. CFBTN would take the road team for games above the line and the home team for games below the line.