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Thursday, October 20, 2011

CFBTN vs. Vegas, week 8

The first chart is predicted scores for individual teams according to Vegas and CFBTN. I've highlighted those teams where we disagree by more than a touchdown. Teams in red are road teams, blue are home teams.

The second chart is predicted margin. Again, highlighted games are those that we disagree on by more than a touchdown. Vegas likes the road team more than I do in games below the line.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Boy, did I get that wrong

Sometimes, the best methods still get it wrong. Below are all game prediction and outcomes so far this season. Named games are those that CFBTN got wrong by more than 4 touchdowns. The vertical axis is the actually margin and the horizontal axis is the predicted outcome.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

A Tale of Two Halves

Some teams in college football have already faced their toughest tests, while others have a rougher road ahead of them. Teams above the line have a tougher SOS in the second half of the season than in the first.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Vegas vs. CFBTN

This is a chart of the margin according to CFBTN and Vegas for week 7. There are six games in which Vegas and I disagree by more than a touchdown. I like the home team more in those games that are above the line. 

Monday, October 10, 2011

When Good Predictions Go Bad

Some outcomes in college football are unexpected. While the predictions here are within two touchdowns of the actual outcome about 65% of the time, the algorithm is occasionally off by as much as 4 or 5 touchdowns. So far this season, the model has been off by 4 touchdowns or more 6 times. Across the bottom below are the predicted outcomes and the vertical axis has the actual margins. 

Friday, October 7, 2011

Probability of Double Digit Wins

By week 6 we already have a number of games behind us and a better idea of how things will go in the upcoming games. A few teams have already been eliminated from double digit win contention mathematically and others will be eliminated soon enough because they just aren't good enough. Below are the teams with the best odds of making it to ten wins or more in 2011.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Week 5 Over-Ranked Rankings

Rankings in college football are subjective, but they are only subjective because we have failed to defined what exactly it is we are ranking. With the BPR, I have developed a definition that I think best approximates the general opinion of what it is that we should be ranking. Basically, it evaluates a team's win/loss record against the strength of opposition that team has faced. 

It is, then, against the BPR poll that I evaluate other national polls. Below, I have ranked teams by the amount they are over-ranked in the combined AP and Coaches polls. Red teams are over-ranked and green teams are under-ranked. In general, over-ranked teams are those that were ranked high to begin the season but have lost in games against top-quality opponents. Human pollsters do not want to punish these teams too much for losing a tough game, but my computer is still waiting for them to prove they belong. Under-ranked teams are those that have won big games but the human pollsters are still waiting to see if they are legitimate or one-hit wonders.