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Monday, October 10, 2011

When Good Predictions Go Bad

Some outcomes in college football are unexpected. While the predictions here are within two touchdowns of the actual outcome about 65% of the time, the algorithm is occasionally off by as much as 4 or 5 touchdowns. So far this season, the model has been off by 4 touchdowns or more 6 times. Across the bottom below are the predicted outcomes and the vertical axis has the actual margins. 

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