Games to Watch in Week 3

So far this season I am 9-1 picking winners and 6-3 against the spread-7-2 if Urban Meyer hadn't insisted on kicking that last second field goal against Miami. If I had avoided emotional picks (i.e. games involving Nick Saban, Urban Meyer and BYU), I'd be perfect.

Ohio State (+10.5) [-22] at USC [+25.5]

Why we care: These two schools have combined for 9 AP national championships and 1,451 wins.

NCAAF - Ohio State @ USC - Who will win?

What to watch for: 1) The condition of Beanie Wells' toe. Ohio State's backups proved to the world last week that the OSU O-line is overrated because it has been blocking for a super-premiere back, and when they are blocking for mortal runningbacks, the Ohio State running game suffers. The USC defense will not get worn down like that of Ohio. No Beanie, no W for the Buckeyes.
2) The matchup of the USC receivers and Ohio State secondary. Ohio State has the advantage here, and if they are able to rely on a lot of man coverage and stack 8 in the box, USC could have trouble moving the ball. Sanchez will not be able to make plays with his feet the way "Boo" did last week for the Bobcats (especially if their are still some subconscious concerns about the infamous knee) which will make USC predictable offensively.

Misc: A 10 point spread historically means that OSU has about a 1 in 5 chance of winning this game (which is remarkably consistent with Hubdub).

Pick: USC by 5

Kansas (+2.5) [+.75] at USF [-7]

Why we care: A win for USF will rank it officially as the class of the Big East, a title it might then hold indefinitely.

What to watch for: The Kansas pass rush. Kansas may have the best linebackers and secondary in the Big XII (which, by the way, is a much better conference than the Big East). But if the pass rush gives Bulls' QB Matt Grothe time to move and create, he will. On the other side, Todd Reesing is completing more than 3 of every 4 passes and Kansas has two backs getting more than 5 yards a carry. They will score their points, but USF's George Selvie will put enough pressure on an untested line to get a few stops. Kansas will also, then, need some stops to avoid getting outscored (aka losing).


Misc: In 2004, these teams combined for 8 wins, a mark both surpassed individually last year.

Pick: Kansas by 5

Georgia (-7) [+15.5] at South Carolina [+2.75]

Why we care: The wrong team came out on top of this one last year.

NCAAF - Georgia @ South Carolina - Who wins ATS?

What to watch for: The over/under. The line opened at 8, but money was heavy on South Carolina +8. This tells me that people expect the game to be low scoring. If South Carolina can stay within 7 into the 4th quarter, this could be anyone's ball game. If Georgia can score some points early, SC won't be able to keep up.

Misc: Its been a really, really long time since Spurrier had a quality season.

Pick: Georgia by 10.

Michigan (+1.5) [-5] at Notre Dame [-14.5]

Why we care: If you thought Ohio State and USC had combined for a lot of championships and wins . . .

What to watch for: Can Sam McGuffie break out? I see no reason to believe that Notre Dame will score an offensive point in this game. Last year, ND finished 116th in scoring (near the bottom) and 119th in total yards (that is the bottom). To kickoff this season, Cal Poly outgained them by 141 yards against a mutual opponent. And Michigan actually plays solid D.
On the other side, Notre Dame returns a secondary that was 2nd in the nation in pass D. Against a typical Rich Rodriquez team, that stat would be pointless, but Michigan, if you haven't noticed, doesn't have a mobile quarterback. The Domer run defense, though, was exploitable and had to be rebuilt after last season. With a good scheme and better execution, UM RB McGuffie could have a big day, helping Michigan score those 3 points it will need to win.

Misc: Scouts Inc. gave ND the advantage in terms of coaching. Huh?

Pick: Michigan by 3

Temple (+6.5) [+12.5] at Buffalo [12]

Why we care: (Bet you weren't expecting this one) In 4 games against D1A opponents, these two perennial crappers are +39 in margin of victory and +24.5 against the spread.

What to watch for: I'll be frank-I haven't watched either of these teams in a couple of years, so I could regurgitate something I've read in Athlon or Scouts, but instead I'll advice you to seek it yourselves. I am excited to watch these two teams duke it out on ESPN360, though.

Misc: Temple does actually have a football team and they, like the more distinguished BB team, are called the Owls. Both Buffalo and Temple are in the MAC (East). Eleven of the 119 D1A teams play in smaller stadiums than Buffalo.

Pick: Buffalo by 6.5

Other Don't Missers: Wisconsin at Fresno, UCLA at BYU--When power conference reps travel to meet the mid-majors, interesting things can happen.

Big East Preview, 2008

I assumed the loss to Pitt had permanently scarred the West Virginia program. When Rich jumped ship, I thought we were about see a team whither away and fade into oblivion. But Coach Stewart stepped up and the Mountaineers beat down Oklahoma, stunning the world and, apparently, Bob Stoops.

This was supposed to be a sign that all was well in Morgantown, and with White, Devine, and an imposing offensive line back, the offense was going to again be unstoppable. But I think WVU lost more talent on offense in backs Slaton and Schmitt and WR Reynaud than they have picked up with a couple of recent middle of the pack recruiting classes. And the defense, which was better than most people recognized, was stripped clean. I think WVU will really get a run for its money this year in the Big East.

Question: What do Pitt and USF have in common?

Historically, these two programs have nothing in common (except for a lack of national championships in the 80's, 90's and this most recent decade), but last season they shared one important commonality - they beat West Virginia.

They have something else in common: they both have speed out the wazoo on defense. Pitt's defense was one of the best in the country, but the offense was so bad that they had to defend short fields and, consequently, gave up too many points. USF's biggest weakness on defense is that they are too speedy and lack the size to punish bruising backfields. Noel Devine is approximately 4 feet tall and weighs as much as Juice Williams did at birth. These two things - beating WVU and having speed - are not accidents.

In 2008, after losing to Auburn at home, White and Co. will need to win at Pitt and against USF the last two weeks of the season to win a Big East championship and finish in the top 15. I don't know if they will be able to pull it off. And if things don't go well in Boulder on September 18th, WVU could be looking at 4 losses in 2008.

If West Virginia falls from grace, who will take their place. In my mind, three teams in the Big East (USF, Rutgers, and Pitt) are ready to step forward while three others (Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn) have stepped back. And Syracuse is still Syracuse (relishing the glory days of Jimmy Brown and 1959).

Rutgers will have to replace Ray Rice but is now a real program with athletes that can fill in the holes as they appear. Solid quarterback play and a more open offense will help the Scarlet Knights compete, but a tough schedule will make life hard. They have to travel to West Virginia, Cincinnati, Pitt and South Florida between October 4 and November 15. If they can win three of four of those games, they should be Big East champs and BCS bowl bound. If not (the more likely scenario) they will be looking at another 8 or 9 win season, which is nothing to be ashamed of.

NCAA Football: Who will win the Big East Championship?

South Florida put themselves on the map last season (but only figuratively because most college football fans still couldn't tell you in which city USF resides). A more mature Grothe and healty RB Matt Ford should mean the offense is better than last year. They were hit bad at corner, but the defense should still be reliable. If they can win some big games at home against Kansas, Pitt and Rutgers, the skies the limit for this team.

It's about time for Pitt to break out. Three straight years now Pitt has dominated the recruiting scene in the Big East. Injuries last season held the offense in check, but watch for Sean McCoy to have a stunning season now that defenses will have to account for QB Stull and WR Kinder. The defense will be first class again, and their performance will actually show up on the score board when the offense starts clicking. They won't be great, but it won't take greatness to win the Big East this year.

And my much awaited prediction for Syracuse? They'll suck once again and forever.

Bowl Picks 4

Sun Bowl. Oregon vs. USF

Oregon at one time claimed the best offense in the country, but USF finished only scoring 10 total fewer than Oregon this season. Oregon finally found in Justin Roper a QB that had some post-Dixon success, but against USF's pass D, the real weight on offense will be carried by RB Stewart. USF held WVU to 13 points and has the potential to do the same against Oregon as well. The fate of the Bulls will lie on QB Grothe, who also leads the team in rushes and rushing yards. Oregon's run D is good enough that USF will need to have success throwing the ball (and not throwing interceptions) to win.

The Matrix - USF by 3.1, 40.4% against the spread

Music City Bowl. Kentucky vs. Florida State

Kentucky did not have a late season meltdown. They had two bad games against Vandy (which they won) and Mississippi St (and lost). They outperformed Georgia and Tennessee, but lost both of those games. Earlier in the season, Kentucky got shambloozoled by South Carolina and barely beat Louisville in far worse performances then they put up against the best teams of the SEC East late. Here are the real story lines for this game: 1) Florida State is going to need to pick up some folks from intermurals to field a team, 2) Florida State's offense could only make a mother proud (they're scoring 22 points a game), and 3) Florida State makes two many mistakes in the secondary against a quality passing team and NFL quality quarterback. Florida State is still athletic - every school in Florida, including St. Mary's Girls College, has athletes - but, much like the University of Texas, bad coaching shows up in poorly performing offenses and/or in lots of mistakes in the secondary.

The Matrix - Kentucky by 1, even odds against the spread (but it did not predict that half the Seminoles were changing grades)

Insight Bowl. Oklahoma St vs. Indiana

OSU was supposed to have the best offense in the universe, so they're probably a little disappointed to have the 28th scoring offense in the country. But they do have a very efficient offense (even in the last two games without superhuman Adarius Bowman) and have lost six games because my junior high football team could have thrown for 200 yards against the 106th ranked pass D in efficiency. Indiana and QB Kellen Lewis will have a field day, but Oklahoma St will score points as well. I think this game will come down to the fact that a less talented Hoosier team has been motivated all season by "Play 13" but not "Win the 13th", and Oklahoma State has some incredible athletes on offense that can kill you.

The Matrix - Oklahoma State by 4.8, 50.8% against the spread

Chick-fil-a Bowl. Clemson vs. Auburn

Horrible name for a bowl, but a very interesting bowl matchup all the same. Auburn's defense is as efficient as any (10th against the pass and 25th against the run), but they're offense needs improvement (although it is not as bad as it appears in unadjusted statistics). That Auburn's defense is 6th in scoring defense despite spending more time than they would like on the field is really quite impressive. Clemson plays on both sides of the ball, but is not as efficient as the raw numbers suggest - in fact, these two teams are pretty equally matched once we account for opponent strengths. This game could be decided by the first team to 10, and with a couple of key Clemson defenders ineligible for the game, Auburn has, in my opinion, a slight advantage.

The Matrix - Clemson by 2.1, 48.9% against the spread

Outback Bowl. Wisconsin vs. Tennessee

If the SEC is going to keep up this campaign that the SEC is so much better than everyone else then Tennessee really needs to win this game. Despite being the better team in terms of talent, the Vols inconsistency leaves this game open for question.

The Matrix - Tennessee by 3, 48.3% against the spread

Cotton Bowl. Missouri vs. Arkansas

Missouri was one win from playing for the national championship and instead get a middle of the pack SEC team. These are two teams that have scored points, Missouri through the air and Arkansas on the ground. Arkansas also has the 17th ranked pass D in efficiency, which should keep them in the game. If Missouri can't handle McFadden and the folks at Arkansas aren't two distracted by the arrival of Bobby Petrino, Arkansas might pull of the upset. The Matrix, though, does not see that as being too likely.

The Matrix - Missouri by 7.5, 60.7% against the spread

Capital One Bowl. Michigan vs. Florida

Poor Michigan. At least you have something to look forward to in your new coach, but the New Year won't start well for you. Not only does Florida have the most efficient offense in the country, but it also boasts the 9th most efficient Run D in the country - it could be a rough day for Mike Hart. Two things could influence the outcome of this game - 1) Tebow could have post-Heisman-itus and 2) Michigan will be healthy again, but then on the other hand, Meyer is such a better coach than the Wolverine abiss I just can't see Michigan winning.

The Matrix - Florida by 11.3, 51.6% against the spread

Gator Bowl. Texas Tech vs. Virginia

I would love to see Tech against Navy - the nation's best pass (and worst run) offense against the best run (and worst pass) offense. Tech was supposed to have a rebuilding year until Crabtree turned out to be the best receiver since Randy Moss. Virginia has been led by Chris Long to a lot of close victories in which they were outgained but somehow pulled out the W. Chris Long, though, will be neutralized against Tech who has mastered the 3 step drop and wide splits (so Chris will be starting his rush while holding the coaches hand). Of course, Tech isn't playing OU or A&M, so they will come out flat and will need to score 21 in the 4th quarter to win.

The Matrix - Texas Tech by 3.5, 44.4% against the spread

International Bowl. Rutgers vs. Ball State

That Rutgers ending the season in Canada is a sign that things in the Big East are returning to normalcy. Quite simply, Ball State is not a very good team. Only their pass efficiency is better than the national average - QB Davis has put up some decent numbers - and they will be a facing a very efficient Rutgers pass defense. Regardless, at least Ray Rice is worth watching.

The Matrix - Rutgers by 6.2, 40.9% against the spread

GMAC Bowl. Tulsa vs. Bowling Green

Only Tulsa has a winning record against BYU this year, something they can be proud of. QB Smith is second only to Tech's Harrell is passing yards but, since Tulsa also has a running game, they have led the nation in total yards. Bowling Green has essentially abandoned the whole concept of defense and will need to exploit a weak Tulsa pass D to stay in the game. These two teams might break 100 - individually.

The Matrix - Tulsa by 3.4, 48.4% against the spread

An Ode to Oregon

Complete Week 12 Predictions

The #2 curse. I'm becoming a believer. I pity the Big 12 team that moves into Oregon's now empty poll slot - or more specifically, I pity the quarterback of the team that fills the #2 slot.

Oregon lost this football game because Dixon stepped funny. That doesn't mean they should have lost the game without their quarterback - Arizona is not a good football team. Oregon outplayed the Wildcats, but they turned the ball over 4 times, once for a touchdown, gave up a punt return and two long touchdown passes. With Dixon in the game, Arizona would have scored one less touchdown (the interception return was a Leaf classic) and Oregon would have scored at least one more - thus, Ducks win 31-27.

But the #2 curse reared its ugly head once more.

It started with USC. Booty threw 4 interceptions into the hands of the might Cardinal secondary and then missed the next three games. While he was out, USC struggled against Arizona and lost to Oregon.

Cal. A heroic collapse. Cal loses to Oregon State because an inexperienced backup decides to tuck it and run. They've lost three of the last four, only beating Washington State by 3 in that stretch.

Next, USF. Grothe came into the Rutgers game completing 60% of his passes and had thrown only three interceptions all season. He throws 7 interceptions in the next three games and completes 53% of his passes. USF loses three in a row and is essentially forgotten.

Arizona State moves in to fill the vacant #2. Arizona State at least had the presence to lose to a better team. But the next week, Carpenter has his worst game of the season and they barely sneak out a win against UCLA. This weekend, they play USC and I wish Carpenter the best.

BC. to Ryan's credit, the curse hit him against VT and he still pulled out a victory. But then an interception, following a second sub-par performance, in the closing minutes sealed their fate against FSU. The next week they lose to the Terps with style. Ryan had completed at least 60% of his passes in every game leading up to Virginia Tech; he has not done so since. And the smart money is on Clemson this weekend.

Now Oregon. Dixon's leg is attacked by an invisible turf monster and the team hands the game away to a bad team. If you have Dixon on your fantasy football team, don't play him next weekend against UCLA.

Next up on the butcher's block is Kansas' Reesing, a solid quarterback, unless OU and Bradford, who lead's the nation in quarterback rating, can jump the undefeated Jayhawks. If the Sooners are smart, and Bradford isn't masochistic, they'll hope they stay at #3 until the Big 12 championship game.

Ivan Maisel, as usual, has a good take on this.