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Wednesday, October 17, 2007

PM 2.11 and a review of PM 1.11

PM 1.11 performed poorly. It was outperformed by PM 1.0, which looks only at the most recent game and home field advantage. I think that teams vary more in their performances, based on their competition, more than we think, but that will have to wait for another week for deeper analysis.

For now, I would like to introduce PM 2.11. PM 2.11 is different from PM 1.11 only in that it covers one major oversight of the latter--it uses point margin.

I use the factors developed in a previous blog to adjust the margin of victory for the probability of victory. Ratings start at 0 and are adjusted by a k of 4, which represents a maximum rating change of 4 points of point margin (see PM 1.11 for a discussion of the basic methodology).

Through week 7, PM 2.11 would have been a step or two behind Vegas. It is actually quite consistent with Vegas spreads, but is generally more conservative (and wrong) when dealing with games between two unevenly matched teams. It has been picking the winner between 65% and 80% of the time.

The Top 5

Here is the top 5 nationally going into week 8.

Number 5. Texas Tech
Any system that emphasizes point margin will tend to favor a team like Tech. Also, Tech is coming off a big win (by point margin and for bragging rights) in week 7. It also help that all FCS teams are given a rating of -7, which is probably too generous and helps the Raiders who have own big and often against much inferior opponents.

Number 4. Arizona State
The best team in the PAC 10 is not in California, and demographic trends look good for the future success of the Sun Devils.

Number 3. West Virginia
I was a little surprised that West Virginia came in higher than their victors in Florida, but my computer doesn't care much who actually won that game (because it was in Tampa it didn't actually affect either teams rating. And West Virginia can put up a lot of points very quickly.

Number 2. Oklahoma
Oklahoma's 7 point win in the Cotton Bowl actually lowered its rating, and the lost to Colorado obviously didn't help, but early success gave them a cushion on the rest of the pack.

Number 1. Ohio State
Top in the PM 2.11 polls and by a large margin. USF is the only team in the country, in my opinion, that has any claim to number 1 (and they didn't break even break the top 5 here).

Week 8 Predictions

Below are predictions for week 8 to win and against the spread:
(Click on image below if you actually wish to see the results and please excuse the typos)

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