This week's games: East Carolina at West Virginia

The loss to East Carolina just about threw the Mountaineer faithful into a fitful frenzy. Rich Rod had left blazing trail of infamy behind him (trying to snag some recruits on his way out of Dodge) and Bill Stewart didn't seem up to the job. One win a way from the national championship game only a few months ago, West Virginia appeared to be in free fall. And they didn't just lose to East Carolina, they got a beat down (analogous in so many ways to the Dolphins win over the Patriots). West Virginia was able to right the ship, though, and ended with a decent season (though far inferior to the Rich Rod heyday). For East Carolina, the 15 minutes of fame ended all too soon. Three straight losses dropped them out of sight, only to reemerge with a C-USA championship at season's end.

At only 6.5 point underdogs, and with Patrick Pinkney still behind center, East Carolina has a chance to pull off the upset again. Their win against App. State won't woo any voters, but they got the job done. West Virginia, on the other hand, gave up 20 points to Liberty. If they were playing at home, I just might pick the pirates, but West Virginia gets a notable home field advantage.

Quick Note: The Brewing BCS Crisis

What do East Carolina, BYU, Utah and Fresno State all have in common? They might all be better than the automatic BCS invitees from the ACC and Big East. This could be a very big problem.

After Clemson, Virginia Tech, Rutgers and Pitt were dismantled last weekend and West Virginia was manhandled on Saturday, new ACC and Big East frontrunners Wake and USF needed a long last second field goal and overtime,respectively, to stay unbeaten. If West Virginia is down and Pitt, Virginia Tech, Miami and Florida St are trying to rebuild, these two conferences are mediocre at best.

This kind of thing has happened before. Pitt was no match for Utah in their 2005 BCS showdown and Boise St proved it belonged at the party by beating Big 12 champ OU.

But this year we could have the four non-BCS standouts finish with one loss between them while the ACC and Big East send 3 or 4 loss champs. Things could get even more complicated if Notre Dame is good again and Ohio State plays in another national championship game. All of a sudden, you've got to tell Utah or Fresno State that they got to take their undefeated record and top 12 ranking to the Crap Bowl in early November-or lock out Florida, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Missouri, OU, etc. from a BCS bowl because they couldn't win the Big 12 or SEC-whose divisions are more talented this year than the Big East and ACC combined.

This talk might be a little premature-BYU still gets UCLA, Wisconsin is awaiting Fresno St, and East Carolina has road games against Virginia, UCF and Southern Miss. Wake and USF are still undefeated despite the scares. But you got to believe that the non-BCS conferences will be producing at least two solid representatives, and the Bowl Championship Series picture will get very crowded.

Games to Watch in Week 2

Miami (-21.5) [NA] at Florida [1-0, +11.5]

NCAAF - Will U Florida beat U Miami (Fla) by 21.5 points September 6, 2008?

Why we care: Two big names, one big rivalry and a Saturday at the Swamp. And if that’s not enough, throw in a Heisman winner, three Mr. Floridas, and a ton of trash talk from U fans on the comment boards because their team looked good against Wilson Academy for the Deaf and Blind.

What to watch for: With speed and playmakers at the skill positions for both teams, this game will be decided . . . at the line of scrimmage. The Miami #1 and #2 at QB are both freshmen with 1 game of experience between them. The receivers also don’t strike fear in anyone, which is really too bad for the Canes, because that was Florida’s achilles heel last year. Instead, Miami will need to run the ball behind a massive offensive line that should be able to wear down the smaller Florida front.

On the other side, Miami will use a lot of nickel and dime packages to keep tags on Florida’s receivers and speedy, but not bulky, running backs. If Miami can get pressure on Tebow with the four down linemen, Miami may be able to slow down the Gator offensive juggernaut.

Miami’s inexperience may play a role, but it was Florida’s lack of execution against Hawaii that kept the Warriors in the game for the first 18 minutes.

Misc: Miami and Florida are currently 16^th and 17^th all time in average margin of victory, respectively (7.24 and 7.19). If Florida wins this game by 30 points or more, they will pass Miami and move up to 16^th all time.

Pick: Florida by 20

West Virginia (-8) [NA] at East Carolina [1-0, +14]

Why we care: If East Carolina can win this game, watch out BCS because you might just have a very deserving party crasher. And West Virginia looked beatable as they got outgained by Villanova.

What to watch: How many people does East Carolina put in the box and get away with it. East Carolina’s DL isn’t bad, but West Virginia’s offensive line is arguably the best in the land. And, by the way, WVU has a RB and QB that are pretty dangerous with the ball. East Carolina has to force QB White to put the ball in the air while still having one or two guys back in the secondary to play defense. If they can hold WVU to under 400 total yards (a task Villanova achieved), East Carolina’s offense is good enough (and West Virginia’s defense bad enough) that they just might score enough points to win.

Misc: I wonder if Skip Holtz will get really goofy like his dad when he gets really old, too.

Pick: East Carolina by .5

Texas Tech (-10) [NA] at Nevada [NA]

Why we care: Last year, these two teams scored a combined 987 points and gave up 755 points. That's a lot.

What to watch for: Tech will get its first test against a good offense this season. Tech will score plenty of points to win, but if Nevada is able to get its running game going, things will open downfield and Nevada will put its own mark on the scoreboard. This will all come down to Nevada’s ability to win the battle at the line of scrimmage—if the undersized Nevada O-line can open some holes, the Texas and OU lines will open up bigger holes down the road.

Misc: Nevada was averaging 36.25 points a game last year until they were shutout in their bowl game against New Mexico. That is the largest drop in production from regular season to bowl game in college football history.

Pick: Tech by enough (covers)

BYU (-6.5) [NA] at Washington [0-1, -20.5]

Why we care: Because it’s important

What to watch for (extended edition): This year, Jake Locker was supposed to make good on all the grandiose promise he brought with him to Washington. He proved his mobility in 2007, but he completed a paltry 47.3% of his passes. He struggled with making both the correct read and then the accurate pass. But last weekend Locker was good on only 12 of 28 passes, amassing less than 4 yards per attempt. And Locker wasn’t the only Husky to struggle offensively; RB Chris Polk used 14 carries to amass 19 rushing yards, making Lockers 3.7 yards per attempt much more appealing.

BYU’s offense, on the other hand, looked like it was going through the Friday runthrough. Max Hall was 34 of 41 for 486 yards and 2 TDs, TE Dennis Pitta showed that the Cougar run of NFL quality tight ends was not coming to an end just yet, and RB Harvey Unga picked up where he left off in 2007—which means he ran like a truck with quick feet.

But all was not roses for when the Cougars had the ball. Four turnovers in one quarter helped Northern Iowa stay in the game into the 4^th quarter, and, most disconcerting, one of the fumbles was another example of Hall’s small hands letting go when he gets hit. Fumble bugs make upsets possible.

BYU’s defense was good, but not far from perfect. Two of Northern Iowa’s scores (and almost all of their yards) came from plays of 69 and 76 yards, exposing again a potential weakness at the second level of the defense. QB Pat Grace also gave BYU fits, again demonstrating that the Cougar defense struggles against athletic quarterbacks (ala Jake Locker).

Oregon’s defense, on the other hand, was never given a real chance because they were forced all day against Oregon to defend short fields. If the Huskies fail to move the ball again, expect BYU to rattle off another 40+ points against Washington with Unga racking in 150+ yards rushing. If Locker can make some big plays with his legs and, more important, hit some receivers down field, Washington could make this a game.

Misc: Max Hall transferred from Arizona State because he couldn’t win the starting job at QB. In 2007, ASU QBs were sacked 55 times and BYU QBs were sacked only 20-proof that sometimes not winning can be a small victory in itself.

Pick: BYU by 15

My Notes on Week 1

Pitt was supposed to be good this year because they have recruited well and they won the backyard brawl against West Virginia last year in shocking fashion. We learned on Saturday that Pitt is not good, Pitt had one very bad game, or Bowling Green has risen from the dust to become a top 25 team. Because Pitt has not yet been good, I would go with option #1: The Pitt Panthers are still not good at football.

We had questions about Clemson’s line and what kind of contribution Alabama would get from its host of incoming freshmen was a big unknown. We now have the answers: Clemson’s line didn’t matter because Alabama was also better at every other position. I realized 5 minutes into the game that the Tigers had no chance—Clemson’s Tommy Bowden seemed to get the hint pretty quickly, too. But before we sing the praises of the SEC, I need to see what Tennessee does against UCLA and I need an explanation for the performances of Mississippi State (lost to LA Tech) and Arkansas (4 point win over Western Illinois).

East Carolina has a solid team, and Hokey fans should not be embarrassed by that loss, but they should be embarrassed by the beatdown they received—on offense, defense and (gasp) special teams. The ACC can be scratched for this season and the rest of the decade—it will not again be a player on the national stage until 2010.

Utah beat Michigan. Watching the game I came to the following conclusions: 1) In the first half the Utah offense was decent, as was the Michigan defense. 2) In the second half the Utah offense was bad and the Michigan defense was decent. 3) Throughout the game the Utah defense was better than advertised (which shouldn’t be surprising since they were 5th in the nation in scoring defense in 2007) and even better than Michigan’s defense. 4) Rich Rodriguez must have used tapes of the 2007 Notre Dame offense to prepare his team—Michigan’s offense was atrocious. The scary thing about Utah is they usually get much better over the course of the season.

We learned very little about the top 5 teams in the country, except that Beanie Wells might have a stress micro-fracture in his foot. We also learned that Hawaii and Virginia have taken huge steps back this year from last year (which we expected). Missouri looked nigh unstoppable, but the Tiger faithful should be a little concerned that Juice Williams was throwing the ball around with ease against their defense (451 yards, 5 TDs). Or maybe Juice has evolved into a version of Peyton Manning that runs a 4.4.

Texas Tech again racked up a ton of yards, but their win over Eastern Washington did not fill anyone with fear and trepidation. There is a very good reason why Tech leads the nation in passing yards every year but had fewer points per game in Big 12 play than both Oklahoma and Missouri—it is very nice to be able run the ball in the red zone. Tech needs consistency, but they also need to be able to ground out tough yards in tight spaces to be an elite team.

And App. St.’s Armanti Edwards is quite pedestrian when he plays against elite college football talent.

Shocking state of the day: Arkansas State ran for 255 yards in their win against a Big 12 opponent.