This week's games: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech

Part two of the ACC reclamation project. After an absolutely abysmal weekend in the ACC, Miami and Florida State revived some faith in the ole basketball conference. Georgia Tech and Clemson will take the national stage on Thursday and hope to impress as well.

Don't count on it.

Though I wish the best for Paul Johnson and the spread option project, I think it will hit a snag in the road this season. Johnson was actually very fortunate in the available personnel when he arrived at Georgia Tech given his system so, unlike Rodriguez at Michigan, he won't see much Sophomore season improvement. Also, being in a conference works against him in the sense that more of his opponents will already have prepared for the system more times in the past-when LSU had time to prepare specifically for the Yellow Jackets last season, the result was rather ugly. In fact, the Tech team in 2008 was typical for Tech in this decade, and I think this team will be lucky to reach that level.

And while Clemson did improve throughout the season, this trend was exaggerated by falling expectations. When fans and analysts accepted just how bad Clemson could be, small successes suddenly seemed much larger. Though improved, Clemson was never actually good last year, and I have no reason to believe that will change. But, as I've said in the past, one nice thing about college football is that someone has to win, and right now that might be all the ACC can hope for.

ATS Rankings

(Click the image on the right to see a larger version; click here for complete week 5 Matrix picks).

I like to think of rankings against the spread as which team is the most better (or worser) than everyone thunk'em to be. You'll find teams like BYU and Alabama at the top of the list and no surprise. BYU covered by 51 points against UCLA-that's more than Clemson has covered total since the invention of football.

But more important is the name at the bottom of the list. Washington State is historically worser than anyone thought they were going to be-and no one outside of Pulman thought they were going to be worth snot. Washington State just might be the most bad worser team in the history of college football.

Good Sign/Bad Sign

Now its time for a little Good Sign/Bad Sign. Every week I will pick out one team from each BCS conference and one non-BCS team and discuss the good signs and bad signs from their last performance.

Texas (Texas 52, Florida Atlantic 10)

The Good-The Longhorns won big against a non-BCS conference opponent, something they struggled to do last year. They are finally starting to utilize some of that athletic ability that so often goes to waste under Mack Brown.

The Bad-Texas wins in blowout fashion, but still Colt McCoy, the Vince Young antithesis, leads the team in rushing. This reflects poorly on the UT running backs, but it also has to make you worry about McCoy’s durability.

Last year Texas finished 109^th in the nation in pass defense and this season they have added two freshman in the secondary. Florida Atlantic’s Rusty Smith threw for more yards in the first half (226) than McCoy in the game (222). It makes you wonder what a Graham Harrel, Sam Bradford, Zac Robinson or Chase Daniel could do against this secondary.

Auburn (Auburn 34, UL-Monroe 0)

The Good-The Tigers ran for more than 300 yards and kept another opponent off the scoreboard. That’s always good. And Auburn’s Robert Dunn returned a punt back for a touchdown, displaying un-Auburn like-offensive pizzazz.

The Bad-Auburn scored only two offensive touchdowns and threw for 85 yards in a new, wide-open spread offense. Tony Franklin, Auburn’s new offensive coordinator summarized the performance, “We stink.” Auburn will need a passing game to beat LSU.

West Virginia (West Virginia 48, Villanova 21)

The Good-WVU can throw the ball. Pat White was 25/33 for 208 yards, 5 TDs and only one pick.

The Bad-399-354. Either West Virginia’s defense is no good or . . . ? Getting outgained by Villanova makes the team look a little vulnerable against a South Florida offense that could have scored 50 points on Saturday on one leg.

Clemson (Alabama 34, Clemson 10)

The Good-Virginia Tech 22, East Carolina 27; you play in the ACC, not the SEC.

The Bad-Rushing Yards: 0. If the offensive line is really that bad, Clemson might not be good enough to win a conference championship in the Sun Belt.

USC (USC 52, Virginia 7)

The Good-Did you see Mark Sanchez’s bomb to Ronald Johnson? That kid might be something special. You always have to be happy with a 52-7 win against a team that was a serious contender in a BCS conference just 9 months ago.

The Bad-The knee dislocated in a non-contact drill. I broke a foot in a non-contact drill 9 years ago and it’s still a problem. Durability could be an issue for Mark Sanchez. And, by the way, Joe McKnight is no Reggie Bush.

Illinois (Missouri 52, Illinois 42)

The Good-Juice Williams: 26/42, 451 yards, 5 TDs. The Fighting Illini outscored Missouri 21-7 over the last 17 minutes of the game.

The Bad-Missouri’s offense slashed through the Illini defense like chopped liver; that’s two games in a row in which the defense has been thoroughly abused by a first class offense.

Fresno State (Fresno State 24, Rutgers 7)

The Good-They traveled across the country and beat a solid BCS team in Rutgers. Sophomore Ryan Mathews ran for 163 and 3 touchdowns on 26 carries. Those are very good numbers

The Bad-Bulldog QB Tom Brandstater was 11 of 24 throwing the ball. That’s not a very good number.

My Notes on Week 1

Pitt was supposed to be good this year because they have recruited well and they won the backyard brawl against West Virginia last year in shocking fashion. We learned on Saturday that Pitt is not good, Pitt had one very bad game, or Bowling Green has risen from the dust to become a top 25 team. Because Pitt has not yet been good, I would go with option #1: The Pitt Panthers are still not good at football.

We had questions about Clemson’s line and what kind of contribution Alabama would get from its host of incoming freshmen was a big unknown. We now have the answers: Clemson’s line didn’t matter because Alabama was also better at every other position. I realized 5 minutes into the game that the Tigers had no chance—Clemson’s Tommy Bowden seemed to get the hint pretty quickly, too. But before we sing the praises of the SEC, I need to see what Tennessee does against UCLA and I need an explanation for the performances of Mississippi State (lost to LA Tech) and Arkansas (4 point win over Western Illinois).

East Carolina has a solid team, and Hokey fans should not be embarrassed by that loss, but they should be embarrassed by the beatdown they received—on offense, defense and (gasp) special teams. The ACC can be scratched for this season and the rest of the decade—it will not again be a player on the national stage until 2010.

Utah beat Michigan. Watching the game I came to the following conclusions: 1) In the first half the Utah offense was decent, as was the Michigan defense. 2) In the second half the Utah offense was bad and the Michigan defense was decent. 3) Throughout the game the Utah defense was better than advertised (which shouldn’t be surprising since they were 5th in the nation in scoring defense in 2007) and even better than Michigan’s defense. 4) Rich Rodriguez must have used tapes of the 2007 Notre Dame offense to prepare his team—Michigan’s offense was atrocious. The scary thing about Utah is they usually get much better over the course of the season.

We learned very little about the top 5 teams in the country, except that Beanie Wells might have a stress micro-fracture in his foot. We also learned that Hawaii and Virginia have taken huge steps back this year from last year (which we expected). Missouri looked nigh unstoppable, but the Tiger faithful should be a little concerned that Juice Williams was throwing the ball around with ease against their defense (451 yards, 5 TDs). Or maybe Juice has evolved into a version of Peyton Manning that runs a 4.4.

Texas Tech again racked up a ton of yards, but their win over Eastern Washington did not fill anyone with fear and trepidation. There is a very good reason why Tech leads the nation in passing yards every year but had fewer points per game in Big 12 play than both Oklahoma and Missouri—it is very nice to be able run the ball in the red zone. Tech needs consistency, but they also need to be able to ground out tough yards in tight spaces to be an elite team.

And App. St.’s Armanti Edwards is quite pedestrian when he plays against elite college football talent.

Shocking state of the day: Arkansas State ran for 255 yards in their win against a Big 12 opponent.

Bowl Picks 4

Sun Bowl. Oregon vs. USF

Oregon at one time claimed the best offense in the country, but USF finished only scoring 10 total fewer than Oregon this season. Oregon finally found in Justin Roper a QB that had some post-Dixon success, but against USF's pass D, the real weight on offense will be carried by RB Stewart. USF held WVU to 13 points and has the potential to do the same against Oregon as well. The fate of the Bulls will lie on QB Grothe, who also leads the team in rushes and rushing yards. Oregon's run D is good enough that USF will need to have success throwing the ball (and not throwing interceptions) to win.

The Matrix - USF by 3.1, 40.4% against the spread

Music City Bowl. Kentucky vs. Florida State

Kentucky did not have a late season meltdown. They had two bad games against Vandy (which they won) and Mississippi St (and lost). They outperformed Georgia and Tennessee, but lost both of those games. Earlier in the season, Kentucky got shambloozoled by South Carolina and barely beat Louisville in far worse performances then they put up against the best teams of the SEC East late. Here are the real story lines for this game: 1) Florida State is going to need to pick up some folks from intermurals to field a team, 2) Florida State's offense could only make a mother proud (they're scoring 22 points a game), and 3) Florida State makes two many mistakes in the secondary against a quality passing team and NFL quality quarterback. Florida State is still athletic - every school in Florida, including St. Mary's Girls College, has athletes - but, much like the University of Texas, bad coaching shows up in poorly performing offenses and/or in lots of mistakes in the secondary.

The Matrix - Kentucky by 1, even odds against the spread (but it did not predict that half the Seminoles were changing grades)

Insight Bowl. Oklahoma St vs. Indiana

OSU was supposed to have the best offense in the universe, so they're probably a little disappointed to have the 28th scoring offense in the country. But they do have a very efficient offense (even in the last two games without superhuman Adarius Bowman) and have lost six games because my junior high football team could have thrown for 200 yards against the 106th ranked pass D in efficiency. Indiana and QB Kellen Lewis will have a field day, but Oklahoma St will score points as well. I think this game will come down to the fact that a less talented Hoosier team has been motivated all season by "Play 13" but not "Win the 13th", and Oklahoma State has some incredible athletes on offense that can kill you.

The Matrix - Oklahoma State by 4.8, 50.8% against the spread

Chick-fil-a Bowl. Clemson vs. Auburn

Horrible name for a bowl, but a very interesting bowl matchup all the same. Auburn's defense is as efficient as any (10th against the pass and 25th against the run), but they're offense needs improvement (although it is not as bad as it appears in unadjusted statistics). That Auburn's defense is 6th in scoring defense despite spending more time than they would like on the field is really quite impressive. Clemson plays on both sides of the ball, but is not as efficient as the raw numbers suggest - in fact, these two teams are pretty equally matched once we account for opponent strengths. This game could be decided by the first team to 10, and with a couple of key Clemson defenders ineligible for the game, Auburn has, in my opinion, a slight advantage.

The Matrix - Clemson by 2.1, 48.9% against the spread

Outback Bowl. Wisconsin vs. Tennessee

If the SEC is going to keep up this campaign that the SEC is so much better than everyone else then Tennessee really needs to win this game. Despite being the better team in terms of talent, the Vols inconsistency leaves this game open for question.

The Matrix - Tennessee by 3, 48.3% against the spread

Cotton Bowl. Missouri vs. Arkansas

Missouri was one win from playing for the national championship and instead get a middle of the pack SEC team. These are two teams that have scored points, Missouri through the air and Arkansas on the ground. Arkansas also has the 17th ranked pass D in efficiency, which should keep them in the game. If Missouri can't handle McFadden and the folks at Arkansas aren't two distracted by the arrival of Bobby Petrino, Arkansas might pull of the upset. The Matrix, though, does not see that as being too likely.

The Matrix - Missouri by 7.5, 60.7% against the spread

Capital One Bowl. Michigan vs. Florida

Poor Michigan. At least you have something to look forward to in your new coach, but the New Year won't start well for you. Not only does Florida have the most efficient offense in the country, but it also boasts the 9th most efficient Run D in the country - it could be a rough day for Mike Hart. Two things could influence the outcome of this game - 1) Tebow could have post-Heisman-itus and 2) Michigan will be healthy again, but then on the other hand, Meyer is such a better coach than the Wolverine abiss I just can't see Michigan winning.

The Matrix - Florida by 11.3, 51.6% against the spread

Gator Bowl. Texas Tech vs. Virginia

I would love to see Tech against Navy - the nation's best pass (and worst run) offense against the best run (and worst pass) offense. Tech was supposed to have a rebuilding year until Crabtree turned out to be the best receiver since Randy Moss. Virginia has been led by Chris Long to a lot of close victories in which they were outgained but somehow pulled out the W. Chris Long, though, will be neutralized against Tech who has mastered the 3 step drop and wide splits (so Chris will be starting his rush while holding the coaches hand). Of course, Tech isn't playing OU or A&M, so they will come out flat and will need to score 21 in the 4th quarter to win.

The Matrix - Texas Tech by 3.5, 44.4% against the spread

International Bowl. Rutgers vs. Ball State

That Rutgers ending the season in Canada is a sign that things in the Big East are returning to normalcy. Quite simply, Ball State is not a very good team. Only their pass efficiency is better than the national average - QB Davis has put up some decent numbers - and they will be a facing a very efficient Rutgers pass defense. Regardless, at least Ray Rice is worth watching.

The Matrix - Rutgers by 6.2, 40.9% against the spread

GMAC Bowl. Tulsa vs. Bowling Green

Only Tulsa has a winning record against BYU this year, something they can be proud of. QB Smith is second only to Tech's Harrell is passing yards but, since Tulsa also has a running game, they have led the nation in total yards. Bowling Green has essentially abandoned the whole concept of defense and will need to exploit a weak Tulsa pass D to stay in the game. These two teams might break 100 - individually.

The Matrix - Tulsa by 3.4, 48.4% against the spread