Stat of the Week - # of Plays

So far this season, Auburn's opponents have run 101 more plays than the Tigers, putting them well behind the second worst FBS team in play differential (Tulsa at -73). But in those 100 fewer plays, Auburn has score 13 more points than their opponents (and in just the right proportion to put Auburn at 3-1). In fact, the correlation this season between play differential and point differential is only .279, with Oregon and LSU also among the teams that have defended more plays than they have run themselves.

What do all of these teams have in common? What do all good teams have in common? Higher yards per play than their opponents. Oregon, for example, has been averaging more than 2 yards per play more than their opponents this season. Across teams, the correlation between points per possession and plays per possession is only r=.274 while the correlation between points per possession and yards  per play is a massive .878. In other words, few teams make a living on long, sustained drives. Instead, they score points on big plays and short fields.

And more plays do little to help a team rack up more yards per play by wearing out defenses. The correlation between yard per play and number of plays is weak, and can be totally explained by plays per possession - teams get more plays because they get more first downs. In other words, more plays on their own do nothing to increase a team's offensive efficiency.

If TCU played in the Pac-10

Given the existing system, I have no beef with Oregon and Auburn playing for the national championship while TCU is left outs. But I do have a beef with a system that cannot consider an undefeated team with TCU's resume.* 

The difference between TCU and the two national title contenders is schedule strength - all three teams finished their regular seasons (plus conference championship game for Auburn) undefeated. TCU tore through its softer schedule, but would the Frogs have done against a tougher schedule - say, Oregon's schedule?

While we can't actually play the games, I've developed statistical techniques over the last several years to simulate games and seasons. We cannot know exactly what would happen without actually playing the games - anyone who tells you different is lying, ignorant, or both. But I can tell you, with a high degree of confidence, how likely it is that certain things happen. 

Without getting into the nitty gritty (you can find more detail here), the system simulates a team's performance against another team's schedule, adjusting for the different strengths and weaknesses of the teams, the location of the game, the sequence of games (team's play less well on average the week after a big game), etc.

TCU if facing Oregon's 2010 schedule:

TCU-Opp    [Odds]
60.3 - 3.0     [100%]  vs New Mexico
36.6 - 13.7  [94.6%]  @ Tennessee
61.1 - 3 .0   [100%]   vs Portland St.
36.4 - 15.9  [93.2%]  @ Arizona St.
31.3 - 27.6  [61.4%]  vs Stanford
42.4 - 11.5  [97.9%]  @ Washington St.
41.1 - 7.1    [98.6%]  vs UCLA
32.9 - 22.3  [78.2%]  @ USC
43.8 - 10.4  [98.5%]  vs Washington
29.1 - 13.4  [87.1%]  @ California
36.2 - 16.3  [92.7%]  vs Arizona
35.9 - 15.8  [92.2%]  @ Oregon St.

The toughest games would come against Stanford (61.4% chance of winning) and USC (78.2%), but TCU would have a better than 50% chance of winning every game on the schedule. All-in-all, TCU would have a 30.0% chance of finishing the season 12-0 and earning a spot in the title game. The Frogs would still need a few breaks, but 30% is much better than the real odds they had of playing for a national championship - zero. If TCU were to play through Oregon's schedule 1,000 times, we could expect them to win 10.9 on average.

                     TCU    Oregon
Undefeated   30.0%   63.7%
Exp. Wins      10.9      11.6

Oregon may be the better team - and my statistical model suggests they are - but if the two were to switch schedules, there is a good chance that TCU would be getting ready for a national championship game and Oregon would be celebrating a tough win the in Rose Bowl.

*Please feel free to learn more about the One Win Away proposition - the only logical solution to the college football national championship conundrum - here.

This Season's OWA Rankings

Earlier this month I laid out the logic of the One Win Away approach to the college football post-season. Tournaments are great for giving every deserving team a chance, but tournaments can weaken the regular season by admitting undeserving teams. The One Win Away approach is the perfect balance - only deserving teams are admitted into the season-ending tournament. Deserving teams are those that, if they were to beat the top-ranked team in a head-to-head, would then be ranked higher than that team - e.g. if Oregon beat Auburn, Oregon would then be ranked higher than Auburn. Therefore, by deduction, the team that wins the OWA tournament is also the team that had the strongest overall season. With the OWA approach, the size of the field will vary from year to year depending on the number of deserving teams, but there will typically be between 2 and 6 entrants.

I also suggested that the OWA field be selected using the BPR. Below is an analysis of this year's results and the OWA participants. The left column is the BPR rating, the right column is the OWA rating - the rating if the team were to beat Auburn. To qualify, a team's OWA rating must be higher than Auburn's OWA- rating in parentheses (Auburn's rating if it were to lose an additional game). Four teams would make the field this season - Auburn, Oregon, TCU, and Stanford. We would then have a 4 team tournament, with Auburn getting Stanford and Oregon getting TCU is the semi-finals. The WAC and Big 10 one loss teams might feel a little peeved for getting left out, but even with a win over Auburn they would still have faced a much softer schedule and have the same number of losses - admitting them into the OWA field would erase that.

Game of the Week: Oregon at Arizona

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Game of the Week: USC at Oregon

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This week's games: Oregon at Boise State

I am posting two sets of graphs to compare teams that will be playing this week. One set shows how the teams have performed from 1994 to 2008 using the Matrix Hybrid rating. The second shows the trend-O-meter rating from 2008. Enjoy.

Boise State and Oregon have been fairly good and fairly even the last few years. Both teams improved substantially over the course of last season as they broke in new quarterbacks. Boise State caught Oregon at a low point last season, and won't do the same again this year, but the game is in Boise, and few are better at home than the Broncos-and Boise needs the win more.

College Football 2008

Now that the season's over, it's time to review and rank.

The Matrix offers us rankings based on three basic ideas-efficiency, performance, and win/loss record. Efficiency is based on yards per play. the efficiency ratings presented here are adjusted for the strength of a team's competition and weighted appropriately. Performance is a team's capacity to score or prevent the scoring of points. Finally, the Elo rating is based exclusively on the win/loss record of a team and of its opponents. I use a hybrid rating that combines these three to rank all 120 D-IA college football teams.

Florida comes in at #1. USC, Oklahoma, Texas and Penn State fill out the top 5. Utah and TCU then represent the MWC at 6 and 7 despite having weak schedules (71 and 55, respectively).

Oklahoma scores the nation's best offense (with Florida coming in second) and USC the nation's best defense (TCU at number 2). Oklahoma had the best passing offense and Oregon the most effective run offense (just ask Oklahoma State about that offense).

Oklahoma also had the toughest schedule (playing in the Big 12 and national championship games bulked a schedule that already included the rest of the Big 12 South, TCU and the Big East champ). Washington had the second toughest schedule, but navigated it less well than OU.

The Apple Cup was everythign we thought it would be, including the two worst BCS conference teams in the country. Despite winning the game, Washington State still managed to wrestle the title of worst BCS conference team from Washington.

But is was a team in Texas that wrote the book on futility. North Texas had the nation's worst defense (again) and a really bad offense measured both in terms of scoring and efficiency.

Quick Note: Week 4 Results

1) The BYU Defense-BYU has not allowed a point in two complete games now. The last points against the Cougars were score by Jake Locker and, notably, not Washington's kicker. Inexperience and lack of depth on defense were supposed to be BYU's achille's heel when the season kicked off, but the Y has pitched shoutouts even when they've thrown out the scout team in big blowouts. They aren't Auburn or anything, but as Wyoming's Devin Moore put it, "They were a little faster than I though they were."

2) Auburn/LSU-I don't care what SEC backers say, beating Mississippi State 3-2 is not a good thing, and Auburn finally got a small taste of comeuppance. This was a tight game between two very evenly matched teams that was essential decided by two injuries. The first injury was that inflicted by LSU's Andrew Hatch. QB Jarrett Lee's performance in the first half had been so bad that he was not going to see the field again--until Hatch was knocked unconscious. Then, all of a sudden, Jarrett Lee was back in the spotlight and he couldn't screw up if he tried. Auburn also suffered some breakdowns in the secondary and, for the first time in the game, LSU was able to make them pay.

The second big injury was suffered by Auburn's RB Brad Lester. Ben Tate was going to get most of the carries anyway, but the change of pace between the two was beginning to give LSU some headaches. And as time was running down, Lester could have been used out of the backfield to add a little unpredictability to an otherwise painfully predictable offense.

3) South Florida-the Bulls need to drop a few spots. Beating Kansas was a nice, but needing a big comeback at home-against a team that looks more like a 20-30 type team instead of the top 10 team of last year-does not merit a sub-teen ranking. And now that they have struggled against both UCF and FIU, they are getting no love from me. But, of course, since they play in the Big East, which might not be as good as the MWC from top to bottom this season, they'll probably finish the season with two losses and a trip to a BCS bowl.

4) One fifth of the top 25 is currently held by the MWC and the WAC. These five teams have gone a combined 17-1 over a schedule that has included Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Rutgers, Michigan and Wisconsin, not to mention in-conference foes (and teams that went bowling a year ago) in New Mexico and Air Force. The MWC teams will beat each other up a little, and TCU has a tough task ahead in going to Oklahoma, but if one the three survives the ringer, Boise State or Fresno State wins and Tulsa continues its winning ways, we could be on path to a major BCS logjam.

Good Sign/Bad Sign Week 2

Non-BCS: Notre Dame
Good Sign: They won. In fact, they are now on pace to win 4 times as many games as they did in 2007. Clausen was solid, completing 57% of his passes, averaging just under 7 yards per pass, and got better as the game progressed-managing an almost heroic 4th quarter. The O-line was able to get a push and showed a recognition that they have blocking assignments, which allowed the Domers to scratch out more than 100 yards on the ground. The 4th quarter domination also demonstrated that the Domers have a little depth and are better conditioned than last year-and maybe, just maybe, they got their fight back.
Bad Sign: The score was 13-7 when SDSU fumbled in the Notre Dame end zone early in the 4th quarter. San Diego State had more total yards than Notre Dame and should have won, but the Aztecs gave the game away. San Diego State is really bad but still had a better chance of beating the Irish than they did Cal Poly. This is the easiest game on the schedule for Notre Dame and the Domers barely snuck by with a W.

Big East: USF
Good Sign: South Florida unofficially won this game by 3 touchdowns. They more than doubled UCF in yards and first downs. Grothe put up impressive numbers while he comfortably waited in the pocket as long as he needed for receivers to get open. Statistical domination is a better predictor of future performance than domination on the score board.
Bad Sign: A bad special teams mistake (91 yard touchdown return in on UCF's first offensive touch) and an inability to get the ball in the end zone allowed UCF to hang around, and then a complete inability to establish the funning game let UCF make their run in the 4th quarter. Grothe was the teams leading rusher, getting 20 carries-way too many-and just 2.7 yards per attempt. Being one dimensional makes it harder to convert in the red zone and to effectively run out the clock, both weaknesses that haunted the Bulls on Saturday.

Big Ten: Penn State
Good Sign: Here's why Penn State is quickly becoming my Big 10 favorite. First, Daryll Clark. He can stretch the field through the air (15 yards per completion, 215 yards passing against Oregon St), and then he can tuck it and run (12 yards per carry, 61 yards rushing)-that combo has given many of the Big 10 defenses fits. RB Evan Royster will get over 1,000 yards rushing (141 yards against Oregon St), so the offense is far from one dimensional. Then defense is solid, but more important, Penn State has demonstrated an ability to jump out early on teams and force them into a passing contest. With Wisconsin's and Ohio State's combination of lines and backs, that could be invaluable. I am officially off the Ohio State bandwagon and on the Penn State one.
Bad Sign: I don't know . . . their coach is really old?

Big 12: Texas Tech
Good Sign: On a day in which Graham Harrell struggled, Tech still won. Inconsistency has been a big problem for Tech, but they now have the depth of options that it didn't bite them too hard. They got a special teams touchdown early when the offense was completely out of whack and then 3 rushing touchdowns to pull away. The backs were productive, which gives Leach one more option if the day-to-day offense isn't clicking.
Bad Sign: Saturday's numbers may be more of a trend than a hiccup. Coordinators have had an off-season to analyze the Harrell to Crabtree connection, which is one reason it might be less reliable-take out the 82 yard reception against Nevada and Crabtree's numbers are quite pedestrian this season. Nevada outgained Tech as they moved the ball effectively on the ground and through the air, so aspirations for the defense might have been premature. Tech is still averaging 8 yards per pass attempt this season, but if that numbers drops to 6.5 against stiffer Big 12 defenses, folks in Lubbock might be very disappointed this season.

SEC: Kentucky
Good Sign: 5, 0, 370 = total points, total touchdowns, and total yards allowed this season. And one of those opponents was Louisville. Granted this is not the Louisville of the Bobby Petrino era and Norfolk St does not scare many opponents, but those numbers are the mark of solid, mistake free defense regardless of the opponent.
Bad Sign: Kentucky will need a very good defense to succeed in the SEC, because the offense isn't there. Kentucky has been trying to replace former QB Andre Woodson, and the dismissal of QB Curtis Pulley didn't help. Consequently, the Wildcats have managed only 147 yards passing in each of their first two games. They racked up 298 yards against Norfolk St., but those yards will be harder to come by against real opponents. The 210 yards of offense against Louisville might be the norm for this Kentucky team, which could make for a very long season.

ACC: Georgia Tech
Good Sign: The Yellow Jackets took a triple option offense to Boston College, faced off against one of the best run defenses in the country, and came home a winner.
Bad Sign: Tech's offense did not win this game. They managed only 162 yards on the ground on Saturday and dropped it 3 more times. The defense played well, but if Boston College had been able to convert its three short field goals into touchdowns, this game wouldn't have been close. At some point you start to wonder if this team this season with this group of athletes will ever get Paul Johnson's offense rolling.

Pac 10: Oregon
Good Sign: It is a statistical fact that demonstrating an ability to throw the ball against much weaker opponents is a better predictor of future success than running the ball, because it doesn't require any offensive sophistication to boll over 150 lb nose tackles. But running for 408 yards against a D1A opponent, even if that opponent was Utah State, is still impressive. Oh yeah, and they threw the ball effectively with two different quarterbacks. And the defense's work against Locker a week earlier now looks more impressive after he ran free against BYU.
Bad Sign: Their quarterback still isn't named Dennis Dixon and the running back dares to be someone other than Johnathon Stewart. That step down in athleticism will catch up with them against the more athletic defenses in the Pac 10.

Bowl Picks 4

Sun Bowl. Oregon vs. USF

Oregon at one time claimed the best offense in the country, but USF finished only scoring 10 total fewer than Oregon this season. Oregon finally found in Justin Roper a QB that had some post-Dixon success, but against USF's pass D, the real weight on offense will be carried by RB Stewart. USF held WVU to 13 points and has the potential to do the same against Oregon as well. The fate of the Bulls will lie on QB Grothe, who also leads the team in rushes and rushing yards. Oregon's run D is good enough that USF will need to have success throwing the ball (and not throwing interceptions) to win.

The Matrix - USF by 3.1, 40.4% against the spread

Music City Bowl. Kentucky vs. Florida State

Kentucky did not have a late season meltdown. They had two bad games against Vandy (which they won) and Mississippi St (and lost). They outperformed Georgia and Tennessee, but lost both of those games. Earlier in the season, Kentucky got shambloozoled by South Carolina and barely beat Louisville in far worse performances then they put up against the best teams of the SEC East late. Here are the real story lines for this game: 1) Florida State is going to need to pick up some folks from intermurals to field a team, 2) Florida State's offense could only make a mother proud (they're scoring 22 points a game), and 3) Florida State makes two many mistakes in the secondary against a quality passing team and NFL quality quarterback. Florida State is still athletic - every school in Florida, including St. Mary's Girls College, has athletes - but, much like the University of Texas, bad coaching shows up in poorly performing offenses and/or in lots of mistakes in the secondary.

The Matrix - Kentucky by 1, even odds against the spread (but it did not predict that half the Seminoles were changing grades)

Insight Bowl. Oklahoma St vs. Indiana

OSU was supposed to have the best offense in the universe, so they're probably a little disappointed to have the 28th scoring offense in the country. But they do have a very efficient offense (even in the last two games without superhuman Adarius Bowman) and have lost six games because my junior high football team could have thrown for 200 yards against the 106th ranked pass D in efficiency. Indiana and QB Kellen Lewis will have a field day, but Oklahoma St will score points as well. I think this game will come down to the fact that a less talented Hoosier team has been motivated all season by "Play 13" but not "Win the 13th", and Oklahoma State has some incredible athletes on offense that can kill you.

The Matrix - Oklahoma State by 4.8, 50.8% against the spread

Chick-fil-a Bowl. Clemson vs. Auburn

Horrible name for a bowl, but a very interesting bowl matchup all the same. Auburn's defense is as efficient as any (10th against the pass and 25th against the run), but they're offense needs improvement (although it is not as bad as it appears in unadjusted statistics). That Auburn's defense is 6th in scoring defense despite spending more time than they would like on the field is really quite impressive. Clemson plays on both sides of the ball, but is not as efficient as the raw numbers suggest - in fact, these two teams are pretty equally matched once we account for opponent strengths. This game could be decided by the first team to 10, and with a couple of key Clemson defenders ineligible for the game, Auburn has, in my opinion, a slight advantage.

The Matrix - Clemson by 2.1, 48.9% against the spread

Outback Bowl. Wisconsin vs. Tennessee

If the SEC is going to keep up this campaign that the SEC is so much better than everyone else then Tennessee really needs to win this game. Despite being the better team in terms of talent, the Vols inconsistency leaves this game open for question.

The Matrix - Tennessee by 3, 48.3% against the spread

Cotton Bowl. Missouri vs. Arkansas

Missouri was one win from playing for the national championship and instead get a middle of the pack SEC team. These are two teams that have scored points, Missouri through the air and Arkansas on the ground. Arkansas also has the 17th ranked pass D in efficiency, which should keep them in the game. If Missouri can't handle McFadden and the folks at Arkansas aren't two distracted by the arrival of Bobby Petrino, Arkansas might pull of the upset. The Matrix, though, does not see that as being too likely.

The Matrix - Missouri by 7.5, 60.7% against the spread

Capital One Bowl. Michigan vs. Florida

Poor Michigan. At least you have something to look forward to in your new coach, but the New Year won't start well for you. Not only does Florida have the most efficient offense in the country, but it also boasts the 9th most efficient Run D in the country - it could be a rough day for Mike Hart. Two things could influence the outcome of this game - 1) Tebow could have post-Heisman-itus and 2) Michigan will be healthy again, but then on the other hand, Meyer is such a better coach than the Wolverine abiss I just can't see Michigan winning.

The Matrix - Florida by 11.3, 51.6% against the spread

Gator Bowl. Texas Tech vs. Virginia

I would love to see Tech against Navy - the nation's best pass (and worst run) offense against the best run (and worst pass) offense. Tech was supposed to have a rebuilding year until Crabtree turned out to be the best receiver since Randy Moss. Virginia has been led by Chris Long to a lot of close victories in which they were outgained but somehow pulled out the W. Chris Long, though, will be neutralized against Tech who has mastered the 3 step drop and wide splits (so Chris will be starting his rush while holding the coaches hand). Of course, Tech isn't playing OU or A&M, so they will come out flat and will need to score 21 in the 4th quarter to win.

The Matrix - Texas Tech by 3.5, 44.4% against the spread

International Bowl. Rutgers vs. Ball State

That Rutgers ending the season in Canada is a sign that things in the Big East are returning to normalcy. Quite simply, Ball State is not a very good team. Only their pass efficiency is better than the national average - QB Davis has put up some decent numbers - and they will be a facing a very efficient Rutgers pass defense. Regardless, at least Ray Rice is worth watching.

The Matrix - Rutgers by 6.2, 40.9% against the spread

GMAC Bowl. Tulsa vs. Bowling Green

Only Tulsa has a winning record against BYU this year, something they can be proud of. QB Smith is second only to Tech's Harrell is passing yards but, since Tulsa also has a running game, they have led the nation in total yards. Bowling Green has essentially abandoned the whole concept of defense and will need to exploit a weak Tulsa pass D to stay in the game. These two teams might break 100 - individually.

The Matrix - Tulsa by 3.4, 48.4% against the spread

I Think I’m Going to be Sick

I’m not a WVU fan. In fact, as a BYU alum, I hate the fact that the Big East gets an automatic BCS bowl bid while the MWC champion gets PAC-10 4/5. The largest stadium in the Big East holds 65,050 – which they borrow from the Steelers - and the mighty Panthers pack 43,000 in there for home games – not exactly big time football – but that’s not the point.

I’m not a WVU fan, but Saturday night’s loss to Pitt made me sick to my stomach. After a disastrous season of freakish upsets – not parity, but freakish upsets – I thought we just might get two one loss teams, with dynamic offenses, in the national championship game. Instead, we get the Buckeye Pansy Killers against a two loss team.

So, to avoid this kind of outcome in the future, I offer the NCAA and college football teams a few free suggestions (but I will accept donations).

1. Go Two Deep at QB

Longshore goes down - Cal loses. Dixon goes down – Oregon loses. Pat White goes down – WVU loses. Bradford goes down – Oklahoma loses. Booty goes down – USC loses. Defensive ends these days are more athletic and hit harder than ever before, and quarterbacks are more vulnerable running the spread offense. They are going to get hurt – and you need to have someone that can step up and play when that happens.

And you need to have someone that can run your offense. Jarrett Brown has his talents, but they are not the same as Pat White’s. Yet WVU kept trying to run the same offense and amassed 190 total yards. They have two running backs that are either former or future Heisman candidates in Slaton and Devine, but Brown keeps it play after play. Theoretically, Leaf also has talents (well-hidden?), but Oregon would have to run a completely different style of offense to exploit them.

So we need to start talking about depth at quarterback and realize that a team’s success over the course of the season will generally rely on its ability to overcome injuries with its second string qb. LSU won and West Virginia lost Saturday because the former has two quarterbacks while the latter has just one.

2. Give Pac-10 Coaches a Clock Management Workshop

If I’m not a WVU fan, then I’m definitely not a Cal fan, but their first of many losses still made me ill. Throw the ball away, get out of bounds, run faster than my grandmother and get the first down – just don’t get tackled in the middle of the field.

But Oregon’s blunder was even worse, because their blunder was premeditated. The game was tied. They've got first down and a chip shot field goal to win. They squatted on the ball to run off some clock and down the ball in the middle of the field. But then they run out the field goal team instead of spiking the ball to stop the clock, miss the rushed field goal, and lose in overtime (because they can’t convert on 4th and 1).

Cal managed a heroic collapse after their time-management disaster against Oregon State, and Oregon completed a three game losing streak by failing to get off a good field goal attempt against their in-state rival, Oregon State. I guess their coaches are so busy dreaming up creative offensive schemes they can't bother to worry about finishing games.

3. Hit a Field Goal

A reliable field goal kicker misses two close range attempts. The team is down by 6 (=3+3) late in the game until a safety ends any hope of a comeback. And national title hopes are lost. If Kansas’ and West Virginia’s kickers go in together, they might be able to afford the services of Blackwater USA long enough to get a chance at redemption next season.

4. Define the National Championship

The wonderful thing about college football is that every game counts. Even week 1 against Appalachian State. Any definition of a national champion that does not preserve this tradition in college football would ruin the sport.

First, this means that we should not have a tournament. If we did have a tournament this year, USC and OU (maybe Georgia) would end up playing for the national championship. USC lost twice, including at home against Stanford, and only won their conference because Dixon was attacked by a turf monster. Oklahoma lost twice on the road to Colorado and Tech. A tournament would discount those losses – and, therefore, make those games unimportant.

Second, I think it is also important to require a national champion win its conference championship. We made the mistake a few years ago of allowing Oklahoma to play for a title after getting a beat down in its conference championship game. The same goes for Georgia this year - and I don't care how well they've played recently. If we must have a tournament, allow only the 8 conference champions from the SEC, Big East, Big 10, Big XII, PAC-10, MWC, WAC, and ACC. This would have the nice externality of forcing Notre Dame to join a conference like everybody else.

A national championship game should include the two teams that have performed the best over the course of the season and also won their conference championships. This year, the natural selection would be LSU – who only lost twice, both times in 3OT and against tough competition – and Ohio State, the only one loss champion. If you lose to a team that is not bowl eligible, or lose by 25+ points, in my book, your disqualified.

5. Recognize that LSU's coaches are very mortal

First, Crowton. He was run out of Provo, and quickly after BYU becomes a power. Last year, they had one of the top 3 offenses in the country by the end of the season (just ask the Ducks). He goes to Oregon and their offense is a disaster (just ask the BYU defense). LSU picks him up - and I can only assume they did it to have a scapegoat in case they didn't win a championship. Oregon has the best offense in the world outside of Massachusetts after he leaves (until Dixon is injured), and LSU's offense is a little above average.
Bo - He had amazing success with the Blackshirts - 15 guys juiced out of their minds. Fine. At LSU, the defense is good, but their are better defenses in the country with less talent. I'm not impressed. If Nebraska fans think he will be their savior, suicide rates could be climbing over the next few years in that fine state.

and Les - Not impressed. Of course, I'm not at all impressed with Michigan and that program, either. Their football team's loss to App. State has been resoundingly outclassed by the basketball team losing to Harvard. It would be a better fit for Les at Michigan - less money, less recent succes, worse future prospects. But instead LSU offers him a raise? Ridiculous - even if he does give the world's second best press conferences (with Gundy at #1).

P.S. Shame on Pitt players and the program for dancing on the midfield logo. If Pitt actually had fans I would hope that they are embarrased for that performance.

P.P.S. The #2 curse lives on

Week 13 Rankings

Click Here for Complete Week 13 Rankings

Before Dennis Dixon went down, I was beginning to believe Oregon just might be the best team in the nation. My own rankings suggested that they had performed at a higher level than any other team in the nation this season. But one bad twist of the knee can shake things up quite bit.

This week I have added a Potential ranking. The Performance ranking that I have used in the past focuses on the score outcomes of games. The Potential rating takes into account a few other factors, foremost of which are total yards and "hardship". Hardship is the difficulty of the match-ups a team faces. For example, Florida's pass defense is barely above average while its run defense is 7th in the nation. Unfortunately for Florida, it has played more teams that are more dependent on the pass than on the run. Consequently, Florida has more potential than game outcomes would suggest - they are 4th by potential and 7th by performance.

The Recent ranking is how well a team has performed recently relative to their average performance. Louisiana-Monroe, for example, has jumped to #4 after the shocker in Tuscaloosa. The rest, I believe, are self-explanatory.

#1?
LSU

The Tigers managed to jump WVU this past week primarily because Pat White fumbled twice the 4th quarter and allowed the game to get closer than it needed to be.

After LSU
2. West Virginia
3. Kansas
4. Ohio State
4. Oregon
6. Missouri

Oregon menos Dixon won't be able to play up to the model's expectations, which should give the edge to Missouri and Ohio State. Missouri, if they are able to beat Kansas and Oklahoma will have enough mustard to jump Ohio State as well.

Potential Rankings:
LSU and West Virginia again are at 1 and 2. Florida jumps up to 4. Missouri also moves up into the #3 spot and Kansas is bumped down to #5.

The worse BCS team - Baylor. The Bears come in a few spots below fellow BCS powerhouses Iowa State, Minnesota, Syracuse and Duke. These teams, Northwestern and Notre Dame have all performed at a lower level than any team in the Mountain West this season.

Win Rating:
In my equivalent of a BCS poll, Kansas takes the #1 spot. Hawaii, after a dismal performance against Nevada - that resulted in a win - moves up 2 spots from last week to 6.

Consistency:
The consistency rating is like a golf score - low numbers are good. Kansas stays at number 1 for another week after they cover for the tenth time this season. The Vandals make a move up, surprising no one with their soft performance. WVU makes a surprise appearance at #4 after their rating was adjusted down a bit from past weeks.

Recent Performance:
Two hyphenated Louisiana squads bust into the top 5. Iowa State, despite losing by 38 to Kansas, is still 3rd - the Matrix predicted them to lose by 40 so they actually broke par in that game.

Offensive Efficiency:
Oregon and Florida have the most efficient run and pass offenses, respectively. Florida (aka Tebow) also makes a good argument for the most efficient offense overall, ranked 13 in run efficiency.

Defensive Efficiency:
LSU's vaunted defense took a big hit this last week and has dropped below USC and Ohio State, easily the two best defenses in the nation. South Carolina can take pride as the nation's most lopsided defense, ranked 5th in pass defense and below average in run defense.

How bad is Minnesota's defense? They have the worst run defense in the nation and the 5th worst pass defense. Overall, only Toledo is less capable of stopping their opponents - bringing shame to the entire Big 10.

For those Aggie fans on the Fire Fran bandwagon, these rankings offer some good evidence of his incompetence. The Wrecking Crew defense of legend is ranked just above Iowa State in run defense and somewhere between UAB and Ohio (not Ohio State, but Ohio) in pass defense. There are also 93 D 1A teams that pass more efficiently than A&M, including Temple and Buffalo.

Click Here for Complete Week 13 Rankings

An Ode to Oregon

Complete Week 12 Predictions

The #2 curse. I'm becoming a believer. I pity the Big 12 team that moves into Oregon's now empty poll slot - or more specifically, I pity the quarterback of the team that fills the #2 slot.

Oregon lost this football game because Dixon stepped funny. That doesn't mean they should have lost the game without their quarterback - Arizona is not a good football team. Oregon outplayed the Wildcats, but they turned the ball over 4 times, once for a touchdown, gave up a punt return and two long touchdown passes. With Dixon in the game, Arizona would have scored one less touchdown (the interception return was a Leaf classic) and Oregon would have scored at least one more - thus, Ducks win 31-27.

But the #2 curse reared its ugly head once more.

It started with USC. Booty threw 4 interceptions into the hands of the might Cardinal secondary and then missed the next three games. While he was out, USC struggled against Arizona and lost to Oregon.

Cal. A heroic collapse. Cal loses to Oregon State because an inexperienced backup decides to tuck it and run. They've lost three of the last four, only beating Washington State by 3 in that stretch.

Next, USF. Grothe came into the Rutgers game completing 60% of his passes and had thrown only three interceptions all season. He throws 7 interceptions in the next three games and completes 53% of his passes. USF loses three in a row and is essentially forgotten.

Arizona State moves in to fill the vacant #2. Arizona State at least had the presence to lose to a better team. But the next week, Carpenter has his worst game of the season and they barely sneak out a win against UCLA. This weekend, they play USC and I wish Carpenter the best.

BC. to Ryan's credit, the curse hit him against VT and he still pulled out a victory. But then an interception, following a second sub-par performance, in the closing minutes sealed their fate against FSU. The next week they lose to the Terps with style. Ryan had completed at least 60% of his passes in every game leading up to Virginia Tech; he has not done so since. And the smart money is on Clemson this weekend.

Now Oregon. Dixon's leg is attacked by an invisible turf monster and the team hands the game away to a bad team. If you have Dixon on your fantasy football team, don't play him next weekend against UCLA.

Next up on the butcher's block is Kansas' Reesing, a solid quarterback, unless OU and Bradford, who lead's the nation in quarterback rating, can jump the undefeated Jayhawks. If the Sooners are smart, and Bradford isn't masochistic, they'll hope they stay at #3 until the Big 12 championship game.

Ivan Maisel, as usual, has a good take on this.

Week 12 Rankings

I apologize. It will take a day or two to post the entire rankings. I have switched computers, but I have not yet switched all the software I need. But I do have some rankings this week.

First, The Top 10

1	Oregon	44.1
2	West Virginia	43.1
3	LSU	43.0
4	Kansas	41.5
5	Missouri	41.3
6	Ohio State	41.2
7	Oklahoma	41.1
8	Florida	40.7
9	Arizona State	39.3
10	Virginia Tech	38.4

West Virginia was poised to take the top spot, but played poorly against Louisville and made room for Oregon to slip in without playing a game. LSU could also jump the Mountaineers with an impressive showing in the SEC championship game.

Kansas jumped to #4 after an impressive win against Oklahoma State and Missouri nudged the Buckeyes out of the top 5.

Top 10, BCS variety

1	Kansas	1993
2	Oregon	1883
3	LSU	1879
4	Arizona State	1805
5	Missouri	1786
6	Oklahoma	1768
7	Ohio State	1761
8	Hawaii	1741
9	West Virginia	1697
10	Georgia	1687

This version of the top 10 uses only wins and losses. The big surprise here is that I made one minor modification and Hawaii drops from 3 to 8. Hawaii and Georgia push out Virginia Tech and Florida in this version, and the top spot is grabbed by the Jayhawks (who will belong there if they can win their next three games).

Top 10 Consistency

1	Kansas	4.98
2	Arizona State	5.16
3	Utah State	5.44
4	Florida International	5.61
5	Army	6.31
6	Missouri	6.99
7	Idaho	7.28
8	Fresno State	7.32
9	North Carolina	7.89
10	Hawaii	8.23

A quick note of warning - consistency does not equal good. Army and FIU are not good. Those two, Utah State, and the Vandals of Idaho have each made their way on this list with consistently horrible play. And Kansas finds itself on top of the pack again. Unfortunately for Arizona State fans, they were also consistent when they played Oregon and, very predictably, lost.

Top 10 Inconsistent

1	UCLA	24.55
2	Utah	22.59
3	Central Michigan	21.58
4	Kansas State	20.17
5	Iowa State	20.14
6	UNLV	19.53
7	Nebraska	19.16
8	East Carolina	18.18
9	Kentucky	17.39
10	Marshall	17.30

Again, inconsistency is not necessarily bad (though it won't win you any national championships). Iowa State has squeezed on this list by improving dramatically through the season. UCLA and Utah, on the other hand, have just been completely unpredictable.

Top 10 Hotness

1	Iowa State	0.361
2	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.298
3	Marshall	0.281
4	Illinois	0.260
5	Tulsa	0.215
6	Ohio	0.211
7	Cincinnati	0.205
8	Georgia	0.191
9	Wisconsin	0.178
10	Clemson	0.172

As I mentioned before, Iowa State is playing well. Illinois just shot through the roof in a single game.

Top 10 Coldness

1	Kansas State	-0.421
2	Miami (FL)	-0.314
3	UTEP	-0.265
4	Purdue	-0.218
5	Boston College	-0.205
6	New Mexico State	-0.196
7	Houston	-0.188
8	South Carolina	-0.163
9	UAB	-0.159
10	New Mexico	-0.158

As well as Iowa State has been playing recently, Kansas State has been worse, losing to Iowa State and then losing in embarrassing fashion to the Corn Huskers. I mentioned in an earlier blog, the Clemson/Boston College game is one of teams moving in opposite directions.

Most unexpected winners

	Home	Road	Spread	Score
7	UNLV	Utah	-7.5	27-0
6	Oregon	California	6.5	24-31
5	Middle Tenn	Lo-Lafayette	13.5	24-34
4	Michigan St	Northwestern	14.5	41-48
3	Louisville	Syracuse	37	35-38
2	UCLA	Notre Dame	22	6-20
1	USC	Stanford	41	23-24

I have limited this to winners, because some of the most unexpected outcomes this season were teams that almost won and shouldn't have had a chance - and "almost-upsets", as you learn as a child, aren't horseshoes or hand grenades. The USC/Stanford game was as big of a spread as you will ever see, but Cal beating Oregon has turned out to be a comparably unlikely event. Interestingly, UNLV is the only team to pull off the impossible at home.

Week 11 Rankings

Week 11 Rankings

#1?
Ohio State.

You can't really argue with that, can you? And if the Matrix picked the participants for the national championship game today we would see the Buckeyes against the Ducks. And, in case you're wondering, it would give Oregon a 60% chance of winning.

SEC fans might gripe about this, but SEC teams don't win big enough. LSU really shouldn't need a brilliant combination of luck and guts to beat Alabama in a late comeback. Oregon didn't need late heroics to beat Arizona State, who also has a pretty good team. And hanging your hat on the Florida-Ohio State game here won't do you any good. USC put as solid a whipping on Michigan as Florida did on Ohio State.

Some things to keep in mind when you look at the rankings. First, it is based on margin of victory, not wins and losses, but with a very rapid diminishing returns for large margins of victory. In other words, it sees a 1 point win as little better than a one point loss, but a one point loss versus a 1 point win can change a teams ranking about as much as a 15 point win instead of a 35 point win.

I've set it side by side with a few other important and sophisticated polls. The scores under Matrix represent the teams rating and the number on the far left side is the ranking according to the Matrix. The mean is a number I've pulled from masseyratings.com which compares over a hundred rankings. I'm a big fan of this compilation and of the Massey ratings.

There are a few kinks with the html that I need to work out, but that will have to wait until another day.

Click here to see the rankings

Week 10 Recap and the Field Goal Calculator

With one game left this weekend, I thought it was about time to report on the initial results from the Matrix's first weekend. All in all, things have gone well. The Matrix correctly picked the winner in 38 of 53 games and was 27-21 against the line.

And it could have been better. If you look back at the picks (table) from last week, you might notice that Oregon is listed as the road team against Arizona State. Unless Arizona State has decided to start playing its home games thousands of miles from home, this is a typo. The Matrix gives teams a bonus if they are playing at home, and, in this case, gave Oregon's "at-home" credit to Arizona State. This mistake shifted the prediction, in this case, by about nine points. In other words, if the Matrix would have been fed accurate data, it would have been correct.

Then there is Rice and Texas. After ragging on these two teams last week, they put up a combined 52 points in the 4th quarter to win and cover the spread. Cincinnati put up 31 in the 1st quarter to do the same. And then the Demon Deacons felt the Cavalier curse and missed what would have been the winning field goal in the last seconds.

But I found a more worrying issue when I looked more closely at the results from the Matrix. Against the line, the Matrix was 0-2 when it gave one team an 80% chance or greater of covering. One, which I mentioned before, was Rice and their 20 point comeback. The other was Iowa State, who seems to actually be a much better team these days. The Matrix was most accurate when it gave one team only a small advantage.

The game of the week, in my opinion, lived up to its billing (that I gave it). Navy wins in triple overtime on a failed two point conversion attempt. Historic. I'm a bit biased towards the midshipmen - I love to watch their offense - but how could anyone that isn't a Catholic not jump on the Navy bandwagon after that game.

The Field Goal Calculator

The field goal calculator is my initial attempt to create an adjustable system that can estimate the number of points that a team will get on average if they kick a field goal or go for it on 4th down. The calculations come from an earlier blog and are not, by any means, perfect, but I think it is a good starting point.

Here, I have provided an excel spreadsheet so users can play with it themselves. The spreadsheet has 4 entries and a graph. You can adjust it for the leg strength of the kicker (average = 0), the accuracy of the kicker (average = 0), the average yards per play for that team, and the number of yards the team needs to get a first down. The graph shows how many points that team could expect to get if they went for it or if they kicked the field goal from various points on the field.

Download Field Goal Calculator.xls

The Matrix - Week 10 Predictions

I feel like I've got some really interesting numbers on my last blog, and suggest that visitors give it a look, but I'm pretty stoked about this blog, too. This week I am presenting the Matrix, the culmination of my experiment into college football prediction models (plus whatever refinements I might want to make later).

A quick overview of the matrix. It uses two general ratings--play throughout the season and play weighted by the last games. To find the best ratings, I use an automated trial and error system that runs the teams through the season a few hundred times to find the best fit. I then adjust these two ratings for match ups in the game--offensive and defensive play against the run and pass and home field advantage.

Before we get to this week's picks, I want to quickly review my picks from last week. I finished the day 2-3, but to my credit, Boston College did not deserve to win. Morelli proved me right in Happy Valley, and Sanchez showed that USC's problems go much deeper than the play of the quarterback. I still have a hard time believing the PAC 10 is any good with Arizona State undefeated and Oregon in second (after the beat down they got last year in the Holiday Bowl). If USC is having an off year, the entire PAC 10 drops a few rungs in my opinion.

Now with a few notable picks (in a less exciting week).

Game 1. LSU @ Alabama
The only reason the spread is under 10 is that the game is at Alabama and people are waiting anxiously for Saban to perform some wonder. Keep waiting. I've heard this talk that Nick will bring his A game against his old team - but the coach doesn't play and has players don't have much of an A game. The hard hitting, low scoring game (both teams will complete less than 60% of their passes) will appear closer than it really was.

The Matrix:
LSU by 13 points, 66% of covering a -7.5 point spread

Game 2. Oregon @ Arizona State
It's disappointing to think that the Ducks, after franchise-establishing wins at Michigan and against USC could fall to the Sun Devils and out of national championship contention. It is harder to believe that Arizona State is actually good. I've heard that Oregon has "far and away the best offense in the country." That's a bunch of bologna, but they'll still win this one.

The Matrix:
Oregon by less than a point (51% chance of winning), 31% chance against the 7 point spread

Game 3. Rutgers @ Connecticut
I ragged on Connecticut last week and they proved me wrong. Rutgers' performance, on the other hand, made me look like a prophet. The Matrix favors Rutgers in every statistical category it measures but the score.

The Matrix:
Connecticut by 2.2 (57% chance of winning), toss up against the spread (-2)

Game 4. Wisconsin @ Ohio State
Ohio State will beat up on another very weak Big 10 opponent. The Ohio State University might have a legitimately good team, but the rest of the Big 10 is soft. I understand the South when they moan about a lack of balance in college football - if BC and the OSU play for the national championship at the end of the season, I don't see any good reason to recognize the winner as the best team in the country. In my opinion, if national championship game does not include West Virginia or LSU (both teams that lost only once, on the road, against more talented teams than any that BC and Ohio State play all year), or if it includes any team other than those two, Oregon or Ohio State, I won't bother to watch. But Ohio State, with powerful wins over Akron and Kent State, which is better known for a shooting than football, has played well this season.

The Matrix:
Ohio State by 23 (94% chance of winning), 70% chance against the spread (-15.5)

Game 5. Texas A&M @ Oklahoma
Its a bad week for college football and I could only find 4 games of real importance, so I picked the 5th game as a homer. Stat of the game--the Matrix sees Oklahoma holding the Aggies to 3 yards per carry. I'd like to console myself by saying that A&M was only one stupid call away from beating Oklahoma last year, but the same coach that made that same stupid call (to kick the field goal) made the same stupid call last week against Kansas and seems, in fact, to be perfecting the art of stupid calls.

The Matrix:
Oklahoma by 20 (92% chance of winning), 47% chance against the spread (-21)

The most interesting game this week is Navy at Notre Dame. The Midshipmen haven't pulled out a win in a little less than a half-century (1963, I believe), but this year they get to play the JV. Navy is favored by 3.5, the Matrix gives them less than a point, but my gut tells me it won't be that close. Navy's run attack is good enough to put up points against anyone, and Notre Dame's offense is bad enough to stop themselves on an empty field.

Picks of the week:
I'm not a gambler, and I don't suggest it personally, but I do like outsmarting the folks in Vegas, so I present three games where the Matrix believes they are off the mark.

Illinois is favored by 12 and still the Matrix gives them a 72% chance of covering at Minnesota. Not only do the Gophers have an appallingly bad defense, their offense isn't half as good as the Big 10 likes to believe it is - but they did manage 21 against the might Bison of North Dakota State.

UTEP is favored by 7 at Rice, but they'll win by more than 15, 70% chance of covering. Even Texas, that has struggled against almost everyone this season (including powerhouses like Arkansas State and UCF), blew out Rice.

Iowa State has played tougher in recent weeks against Missouri and, especially, Oklahoma, but they are still one of the worst teams in FBS. Kansas State will cover the 14 point spread and win by 30+, 90% chance against the spread. Need I mention that Iowa State is the only other team against which Texas has looked competent.

Click the image below to see the rest of the picks. Rankings based on the matrix will be released starting next week.

CSV file

Sortable Table