My new theory on the Big 10

I've always opposed the idea that the stature of the Big 10 has fallen because Yankees are slower on average than their southern counterparts. No one has ever provided me evidence to that effect. After Ohio State lost to LSU, I showed that speed was not the issue. Instead, I have argued that the South is benefiting from a growing talent pool (in terms of athletes, students, and donors) while the Midwest is hunting for minnows in a shallow, stagnant, and shrinking pond-its demography, not genetics, weather, or proximity to the Gulf of Mexico.

But Ohio State consistently gets the best talent from the Midwest and also pulls five star recruits from Florida. Their classes are as good, and as fast, as the classes that USC, Texas and Florida are grabbing. Ohio State was every bit as physically talented as USC but lost anyway. Why do they fold against top caliber teams?

The answer came to me while I was watching Ohio State's otherwise dominant defense collapse at the end of each half against USC. The Big 10, and especially its elite, do not condition the same way they do in the South. Its happened with the Buckeyes before. Texas went to a no-huddle hurry-up offense a year ago and the Ohio State D was barely staying upright by the end of the drive. Lack of conditioning, and perhaps even a lack of practice, make you look slow.

If Exhibit A is a fatigued Buckeye, Exhibit B is the Rich Rodriguez experience at Michigan. Rodriguez expects his players to practice and condition like everyone else and players start to rebel. Why? They haven't done it before. And now that they have taken on a big league conditioning regiment, Michigan is quickly looking like a contender again-they are faster at every position, even at positions that are still filled by Lloyd Carr guys.

Exhibit C: Notre Dame is in the Big 10 culturally if not physically. Notre Dame also recruits nationally, so the slowness of Yankees should not be a problem. But the knock on Notre Dame is their teams have been slow, right? But the real problem has not been raw speed-if you look at the Notre Dame recruiting classes for the last 8 years their classes have not been slower than, say, Navy or Syracuse. But they've looked slow recently because they haven't trained hard enough. They have suffered from both the Big 10 culture and Charlie Weis' self-constructed image as a super genius whose teams can outsmart others even if they are not as physically prepared.

This does not rule out depth as a possibility. While Big 10 teams can have some very good players, and Ohio State and Michigan can even field an entire first team of very good players, it is harder to get the depth of talent that a USC or Florida has (demography again). Lack of depth can make you look slow and can cause you to tire early.

This week's games: USC at Ohio State

It shouldn't surprise anyone that Ohio State got better last year as Pryor learned the ropes in his new job. Considering that and the talent that USC lost last year to the NFL, one might be tempted to pick Ohio State in this rematch.

Not so fast, my friend.

Pryor, though dangerous in his own way, is limited. He is strong with the ball in his hands, and Tressel is finding new ways to keep the ball in his hands, but he's no Pat White. He's also much less scary when he tries to distribute the ball to his teammates. The USC secondary is good enough that the targets Pryor will need to hit will be miniscule-and I'm not convinced he can do that consistently.

And USC is a program that simply reloads. Freshman Matt Barkley has not yet faced a large, hostile crowd, but breakdowns in the Ohio State secondary and wide open receivers should help him feel right at home. As I've said before, USC will win this by 20.

Games to Watch

(Complete Week 1 Picks Here)
TEAM1 (Record) |Spread| [ATS] @ Team2 (Record) [ATS]

Ohio State (4-1) |-2.5| [-12.9] @ Wisconsin (3-1) [+1.0]
Why we care: Big Ten title is still up for grabs. More importantly, we get are first look at Terrelle Pryor as the number 1.
What to watch for: How much of the offense has Pryor absorbed and how healthy is Beanie Wells. Ohio State already has one of the more efficient run offenses in the country-and it should only get better. But can Pryor stretch the field? Wisconsin is good enough up front that they will stop you unless you pull back and throw it over their heads every once in a while.

Pick: Ohio State 19, Wisconsin 9

Auburn (4-1) |-4| [-2.4] @ Vanderbilt (4-0) [+15.9]

Why we care: Vandy just might win this one, and they might win because they might be the better team-that is reason enough for me.
What to watch for: Who screws up first. Don't expect this to be a game of offensive fireworks. These two teams couldn't move the ball consistently against their own scout teams. Whoever gets to 14 first wins.

Misc: Remember how the SEC East was supposed to be dominant this year? Now their last remaining shimmer of hope is the Commodores?

Pick: Vanderbilt 17, Auburn 14
Connecticut (5-0) |-1| [+5.0] @ North Carolina (3-1) [+14.0]

Why we care: UNC is probably an up and coming program under Butch Davis and has looked competitive in its 4 outings, while UConn looks to start 6-0.

What to watch for: QB play. Both teams are without their starting quarterbacks. This turn of events favors UConn who has the top rusher in the country in Donald Brown-who was a week one player that impressed. But North Carolina has looked like the more explosive team and has played the tougher schedule.

Pick: North Carolina 32, UConn 19

Games to Watch in Week 3

So far this season I am 9-1 picking winners and 6-3 against the spread-7-2 if Urban Meyer hadn't insisted on kicking that last second field goal against Miami. If I had avoided emotional picks (i.e. games involving Nick Saban, Urban Meyer and BYU), I'd be perfect.

Ohio State (+10.5) [-22] at USC [+25.5]

Why we care: These two schools have combined for 9 AP national championships and 1,451 wins.

NCAAF - Ohio State @ USC - Who will win?

What to watch for: 1) The condition of Beanie Wells' toe. Ohio State's backups proved to the world last week that the OSU O-line is overrated because it has been blocking for a super-premiere back, and when they are blocking for mortal runningbacks, the Ohio State running game suffers. The USC defense will not get worn down like that of Ohio. No Beanie, no W for the Buckeyes.
2) The matchup of the USC receivers and Ohio State secondary. Ohio State has the advantage here, and if they are able to rely on a lot of man coverage and stack 8 in the box, USC could have trouble moving the ball. Sanchez will not be able to make plays with his feet the way "Boo" did last week for the Bobcats (especially if their are still some subconscious concerns about the infamous knee) which will make USC predictable offensively.

Misc: A 10 point spread historically means that OSU has about a 1 in 5 chance of winning this game (which is remarkably consistent with Hubdub).

Pick: USC by 5

Kansas (+2.5) [+.75] at USF [-7]

Why we care: A win for USF will rank it officially as the class of the Big East, a title it might then hold indefinitely.

What to watch for: The Kansas pass rush. Kansas may have the best linebackers and secondary in the Big XII (which, by the way, is a much better conference than the Big East). But if the pass rush gives Bulls' QB Matt Grothe time to move and create, he will. On the other side, Todd Reesing is completing more than 3 of every 4 passes and Kansas has two backs getting more than 5 yards a carry. They will score their points, but USF's George Selvie will put enough pressure on an untested line to get a few stops. Kansas will also, then, need some stops to avoid getting outscored (aka losing).


Misc: In 2004, these teams combined for 8 wins, a mark both surpassed individually last year.

Pick: Kansas by 5

Georgia (-7) [+15.5] at South Carolina [+2.75]

Why we care: The wrong team came out on top of this one last year.

NCAAF - Georgia @ South Carolina - Who wins ATS?

What to watch for: The over/under. The line opened at 8, but money was heavy on South Carolina +8. This tells me that people expect the game to be low scoring. If South Carolina can stay within 7 into the 4th quarter, this could be anyone's ball game. If Georgia can score some points early, SC won't be able to keep up.

Misc: Its been a really, really long time since Spurrier had a quality season.

Pick: Georgia by 10.

Michigan (+1.5) [-5] at Notre Dame [-14.5]

Why we care: If you thought Ohio State and USC had combined for a lot of championships and wins . . .

What to watch for: Can Sam McGuffie break out? I see no reason to believe that Notre Dame will score an offensive point in this game. Last year, ND finished 116th in scoring (near the bottom) and 119th in total yards (that is the bottom). To kickoff this season, Cal Poly outgained them by 141 yards against a mutual opponent. And Michigan actually plays solid D.
On the other side, Notre Dame returns a secondary that was 2nd in the nation in pass D. Against a typical Rich Rodriquez team, that stat would be pointless, but Michigan, if you haven't noticed, doesn't have a mobile quarterback. The Domer run defense, though, was exploitable and had to be rebuilt after last season. With a good scheme and better execution, UM RB McGuffie could have a big day, helping Michigan score those 3 points it will need to win.

Misc: Scouts Inc. gave ND the advantage in terms of coaching. Huh?

Pick: Michigan by 3

Temple (+6.5) [+12.5] at Buffalo [12]

Why we care: (Bet you weren't expecting this one) In 4 games against D1A opponents, these two perennial crappers are +39 in margin of victory and +24.5 against the spread.

What to watch for: I'll be frank-I haven't watched either of these teams in a couple of years, so I could regurgitate something I've read in Athlon or Scouts, but instead I'll advice you to seek it yourselves. I am excited to watch these two teams duke it out on ESPN360, though.

Misc: Temple does actually have a football team and they, like the more distinguished BB team, are called the Owls. Both Buffalo and Temple are in the MAC (East). Eleven of the 119 D1A teams play in smaller stadiums than Buffalo.

Pick: Buffalo by 6.5

Other Don't Missers: Wisconsin at Fresno, UCLA at BYU--When power conference reps travel to meet the mid-majors, interesting things can happen.

The Ohio State University: Too Legit to Quit

Three minutes into the first half, Matt Flynn fell on his own fumble at the LSU 6 yard line. Twelve minutes later, LSU’s Harry Coleman fell on a fumbled punt at the LSU 16. In a game in which LSU was outgained, 2 turnovers were the deciding factors, but Ohio State lost the ball to LSU, not LSU to Ohio State. If those fumbled balls had proven too slippery for Coleman and Flynn, we would have a different national champion for the 2007 college football season.

Price represents the probability that Ohio State will be the BCS outright national champion in 2008.

Now, generally intelligent and well-informed, but myopic, college football commentators are making broad generalizations that Ohio State shouldn’t be allowed to compete for the national championship in 2008 because their schedule is soft and they don’t have the talent and speed to compete with the SEC. Garbage.

Here are some things to remember before we make that same mistake. First, the Ohio State team of 2007 was supposed to be a rebuilding project. Ohio State went to the Sugar Bowl because the rest of the contenders across the country missed the bus. Let’s review.

Georgia couldn’t even win their own division because they got blasted by a quality, though not title contending, Tennessee team. It is prerequisite that any team interested in playing for the title of best team in the country should first establish themselves as the best in their six team division. The same goes for Kansas.

West Virginia had a golden ticket, but they and Missouri got locked in a fierce game of hot potato and threw it away. I would agree that the Big East was probably stronger than the Big 10 last year, but WVU lost twice (which is more than once) in one of the weaker BCS conferences.

Virginia Tech was on a roll at the end of the season and suffered only two losses to two good teams, but the Hokies were already handed a 41 point loss by LSU. You don’t get a rematch when you call on the mercy rule in your first meeting.

Oklahoma could have made a strong argument, having lost twice in a much tougher Big 12. But after watching their bowl game performance, and considering their own record in bowl games recently, I don’t think we would have been any better off. And Missouri has no claim, suffering the same number of losses as OU with a softer schedule and, coincidentally, having lost twice to Oklahoma.

Here is a list of USC’s second order losses (teams that beat teams that beat USC): Notre Dame (3-9), Washington (4-9), Washington State, Oregon (9-4), Oregon State (2x), California (7-6), UCLA (2x) (6-7), Arizona (5-7), Arizona State (10-3), and TCU (8-5). It is somewhat remarkable that USC won the conference championship despite marking first or second order losses to every team in the conference. The Pac 10 may have been tougher than the Big 10, but USC’s work in the Pac 10 did not warrant a shot at the title.

(On a side note, speaking of second order losses, 4 teams accomplished the rare feat of earning a spot on their own second order loss list: BYU, UCLA, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. Oklahoma, Missouri, UCF and Tulsa could have joined this list if their conference championship games had turned out differently.)

USC and Georgia may have been better teams in January, but the beautiful thing about college football is that you have to perform from September through November, too. Ohio State, two seasons in a row, has punched their card to the title game by playing good, consistent ball throughout the regular season. If Ohio State is one of the best two teams from September to November in 2008, they should again be packing their bags for another trip to the BCS title game.

But we hear that Ohio State plays in a weak Big Ten and doesn’t actually have the talent to compete against the best teams in the country. Again, garbage. Any recruiting service worth its salt will tell you that Ohio State has had top 5 recruiting classes 2 of the last 3 years. The OSU not only has grabbed the best talent from Ohio, Pennsylvania and Illinois (good high school football states), but they have also nicked five star athletes from the South. Their 2008 signees included 2 kids from Florida, 1 from Texas, and 1 from Maryland in the top 100 nationally, including ATH Lamaar Thomas who has the speed to make Trindon Holiday nervous in a foot race.

Florida only signed 5 kids from the South in the top 100 nationally.

Ohio State is too slow though, right? Sure the SEC is faster than the Big 10 and produces more pro talent at the speed positions, but the Big 10 doesn’t play for national championships—Ohio State does. Here’s a comparison of the average 40 time by unit for Ohio State and LSU in 2007:

Offensive Line and Tight End (starting 6):
OSU – 5.06 LSU – 5.05

Runnning Back (3 deep):
SU – 4.45 LSU – 4.45

Fullback:
OSU – 4.50 LSU – 4.60

Receiver (4 deep):
OSU – 4.55 LSU – 4.44

Defensive Line (starting 4, 1 reserve):
OSU – 4.80 LSU – 4.80

Linebackers (3 starters):
OSU – 4.65 LSU – 4.57

Secondary (4 starters):
OSU – 4.48 LSU – 4.53

Quarterback:
I don’t know, but LSU has the advantage here.

Conclusion—LSU was faster but not “me vs. Usain Bolt” faster. The difference between the two teams was small.

LSU looked so much faster in the Sugar Bowl, despite not actually being that much faster, because 1) LSU’s defense was coached by Bo Pelini. Players both play faster and look faster because of good coaching and scheming under Pelini. 2) LSU was accustomed to a faster pace from playing in the SEC. Ohio State had the capacity to play and that speed, but up to that point, their competition had not inspired them to. 3) LSU has more speed on the practice squad. If Tressel had allowed his first teams to go at it more in December practices, I have a feeling we wouldn’t have been able to notice a speed difference between the two teams.

OSU's Coach Tressel is a smart guy—you can tell because he wears a sweater vest and only smart guys wear sweater vests. I’m disappointed he didn’t make the necessary adjustments from 2006 to prepare for LSU, but we need to remember that a healthy LSU was really that much better than everyone else. In 2008, Tressel will have his team ready (and they won’t have to play anyone as stacked on defense as LSU was in ’07).

All this is important because Ohio State has another team that is ready to make a run for a national championship. The team will be loaded with about 47 returning starters and a Heisman-caliber running back in Beanie Wells (who has demonstrated in both national championship games that he is not too slow to compete against SEC defenses). According to Athlon Sports, Ohio State ranks in the top 10 in the country at every unit but defensive line.

More importantly, Ohio State has a schedule that could earn them some legitimacy. They play at USC, Wisconsin and Illinois (all potential top 15 teams) and also have Penn State and Michigan (who wasn’t too slow to compete against Florida last year) on the schedule. Assuming we grant one spot in the national championship game to the SEC champ, Ohio State would have just as much claim as any remaining contender based on strength of schedule.

It would be a real shame if we kept a team out of a national championship game just because they had proven to be second best the two years before.

Bowl Picks 5 - BCS Bowls

Complete Bowl Picks

The Matrix and the folks in Vegas don't seem agree about the BCS matchups. In most cases here, I take the side of the folks in Vegas.


Rose Bowl. Illinois vs. USC

If Illinois were to win this game, they might start next season in the top 5 and Ron Zook would be elected governor of Illinois. The only offense of note in this game is Illinois' run game which will face up against the 2nd most efficient run D in the country. The Illini, though, already beat the 3rd ranked run defense (the Ohio State). Mendenhall is as good of a runningback as any in the country and Juice is another dangerous running back who throws the ball more than most. USC, though, also touts a tough running game that now, in the form of Joe McKnight, is showing a little more explosiveness. USC is the better team and is essentially playing at home, but they don't have the fire power to put Illinois away.

The Matrix - USC by 8.3, 39.8% against the spread

Sugar Bowl. Georgia vs. Hawaii

All season, I wanted this mediocre Hawaii team to lose so they wouldn't get to this point and embarrass the non-BCS fraternity. Hawaii is undefeated because they have played the 105th toughest schedule in the nation - they beat Louisiana Tech by 1, got lucky against San Jose State and have a loss against Nevada in my unofficial record keeping. They are a better team when Colt is on the field, but who's to say Georgia won't get a couple of solid hits and knock him out of the game in the 1st quarter. And QB Colt Brennan will take his shots, because Hawaii has no running game and the Georgia lineman can pin back their ears and speed rush. Georgia's pass D is not spectacular, but it has the speed in the secondary it needs to contain Hawaii's receivers. On the other side, watch RB Knowshon Moreno to have a big game. He is in my RB top five (with McFadden, Charles at Texas, Patrick at OU, and UCF's Kevin Smith). I'm not as impressed with Georgia as others, but I think they have the speed to be where the Hawaii players are and the strength to put them down once they get there.

The Matrix - Georgia by 3.7, 33.1% against the spread

Fiesta Bowl. West Virginia vs. Oklahoma

These two teams would be playing in the national championship game but they suffered freakish upsets when their quarterbacks got knocked out. West Virginia was hit the hardest, because they lost in the very last game to a rival and because they have fewer opportunities to win titles than OU. Now, after being kicked in the gut, Rich Rodriquez has gutted the coaching staff. Pat White will have some time to recover from bruisings, but WVU, a 1-dimensional run offense, will be facing one of the nation's best run defenses. To make matters worse, by the end of the season OU's offense was as effective as as I've seen all year. QB Bradford rarely lets the ball touch the ground or an opponent, and OU's stable of NFL running backs runs through holes opened up by a dominant O-line. And Stoops is a better coach than whoever WVU will be able to pick out from the pee-wee league. Personally, I have loved watching WVU for the last two seasons and hope them the best after Rich jumped ship, so I hope they can at least keep this game close for the first half. If the game stays reasonably close, this will be the game to watch this bowl season.

The Matrix - Oklahoma by 1.2, 35.1% against the spread

Orange Bowl. Virignia Tech vs. Kansas

I agree with everyone else that Missouri, not Kansas, should be in this game. But here's why Kansas is good: QB Todd Reesing has completed more than 60% of his passes for 3200 yards. The human sledgehammer RB Brandon McAnderson has rushed for over 1,000 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry and scoring 16 times. And they have a top 10 defense in adjusted yards per play. Watching the game, I was convinced that Kansas was better than Missouri, but made rare mistakes that cost them the game (and, therefore, Missouri should be in this game). I've only watched two Hokies games in their entirety, and one of those was the slaughtering LSU put on them, so my impressions maybe skewed. But Virginia Tech's "stifling" defense has only managed to stifle two offenses worth noting (BC and Clemson) and Kansas will bring in the best offense they have seen all season. And Virginia Tech will struggle against a Jayhawk defense that has allowed fewer opponent-adjusted yards per play than the Hokies own. It is also significant that Kansas has no significant injuries. On the other hand, Kansas has won all year against inferior opponents with inferior talent and Virginia Tech's speed may be their undoing.

The Matrix - Virginia Tech by .8, 43.1% against the spread

National Champion Game. Ohio State vs. LSU

I was thinking I would make a special blog entry for this game or do something to set it apart until I remembered that I don't actually care all that much about this game. These two teams deserve to be in this game, but this season will go down with 1990 and 1984 as seasons in which a national champion was named only because we feel compelled to name a national champion - not because any team merited the title.

This hogwash about Ohio State not being able to deal with a mobile quarterback is, well, hogwash. Ohio State has a solid defense with real athletes. Only one team broke 20 against the Buckeyes this year, and Illinois (who managed 28, 32 less than Arknasas against LSU) are not similar to LSU in style. And Tressel & Co. can have the athletes to game plan in the two weeks they have running up to the game - and they can watch film on what 13 other teams have tried to stop Crowton's very undynamic offense.

The real story, in my opinion, for this game is going to be the health of LSU. Here is the injury report for LSU from NOLA.com:

Linebacker Darry Beckwith (12/3, right ankle) is probable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Running back Trindon Holliday (12/3, ankle) is probable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Wide receiver Early Doucet (12/3, shoulder) is probable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Quarterback Ryan Perrilloux (12/3, finger) is probable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Quarterback Matt Flynn (12/3, shoulder) is probable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Defensive tackle Charles Alexander (12/3, knee) will miss the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Guard Will Arnold (12/3, viral infection) is questionable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Left tackle Mark Snyder (12/3, knee) will miss the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State.

That's a long list and includes a lot of critical contributors. LSU has better athletes and was dominant before injury slimmed their ranks, and will win if they have their team back.

The Matrix - Ohio State by 1.9, 73.3% against the spread

Week 15 Rankings

Complete Week 14 Ratings Table Here

According to the Matrix, the national championship game already took place, in San Antonio, on Saturday, and Oklahoma won.

I mentioned yesterday how Stoops was trying to manipulate the national championship game with his vote. Well, this is how that kind of manipulation occurs statistically. It is a bootstrap technique. Missouri's rating is dependent on OU's rating because both of Missouri's losses came at the hands of the Sooners. Oklahoma's rating, likewise, depends on Missouri's, because Oklahoma's two biggest wins came against Missouri. When Missouri loses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma's stock is boosted, which lessens the penalty levied on Missouri for losing twice to them, which, again, boosts Oklahoma's stock for having beaten them, etc.

That, of course, does not mean the system is flawed. If you look at the way these two teams have performed, with the exception of Oklahoma's games against Colorado and Tech, you will not find a more impressive record in the country.

Missouri, though still #1, took a hit. Last week, it was consensus number 1 (in all three polls the Matrix generates) with huge leads over everyone but West Virginia. If West Virginia had not managed to choke as no other team has ever choked before or ever will again (Pitt is now the nation's second hottest team according to the Recent rating), Missouri would have dropped to 2 and, in fact, could have potentially dropped below Oklahoma in the Hybrid poll as well.

USC and Ohio State still sit comfortably at #1 and #2 with the nation's best defenses. Florida still has the highest performing offense, but Navy (from the wishbone, no less) is now nipping at the heels of the Gators.

The Vandals have made a strong move to the bottom of the list as the nation's worse team, claiming a title Florida International had been coveting all season. The Gophers are the worst team from a BCS conference - Brewster's really taking things a whole new direction. The amazing thing about the 1-11 season is that it should never happen. Minnesota actually has a history of success in the game, a massive student body (=fans in the stadium and revenue for financing facilities), and is in the Big 10. Ironically, Minnesota payed Brewster more per win than any other team in the country.

That is not the case with football failures SMU and Rice. They were almost competitive for years in the SWC but, like Baylor, cannot compete with the larger schools in Texas - especially since SMU can't get away with putting together the best team money can buy anymore. Despite all the talent in that fine state, Texas has three of the nation's six worst teams (with the Mean Green joining the others at 118). At the other end, Texas has no teams in the top 25 according to the Matrix.

Before moving on, I would like to congratulate Washington for scoring this season's most difficult schedule. Unfortunately, the strength of that schedule is very visible in their record this season.

I thought I would end this with a brief discussion of the rating measures you can find on the table.

Performance - A rating based only on margin of victory and opponent strength.
Potential - Based on the performance rating, but tries to take into account match-ups and "luck" that might have distorted a teams performance rating.
Elo - A rating based on wins and losses and opponent strength.
Hybrid-2 - A combined rating that takes into account the first three rating approaches.
Strength of Schedule (SOS) - this is the mean of a team's opponents' ratings. I have included it as an additional piece of information - it is not used in the calculations of any ratings.
Recent - A rating of a team's recent performance relative to its average performance - a Recent rating does not mean that a team is good, only that it is playing better than before.
Consistent - the consistency rating is read like a golf score - a low number means the team has been relatively predictable.
Efficiencies - These are relatively self-explanatory. A higher number means that a team has demonstrated a higher level of efficiency in that area.

Complete Week 14 Ratings Table Here

Week 14 Rankings

Complete Week 14 Rankings Here

The polls got shifted around quite a bit last week. The two top teams lost. LSU did it in 3OT again and Kansas missed two chip shot field goals and threw two interceptions deep in Missouri territory. Oregon's offensive disaster in the Rose Bowl will keep it from returning in January. That opened the door for Missouri to jump from #6 to #1 in one day, barely sliding past West Virginia.

Hawaii didn't make up much ground after an impressive victory against Boise State, but USC did move up the polls after a (more?) impressive performance.

UCLA held on to its #1 ranking as the nation's most unpredictable team (the Matrix didn't know Oregon was on its third string quarterback), but Kansas fell from the most consistent out of the top 10 in consistency - Troy is #1 and I'm not quite sure I can believe that.

USC and the Ohio State have marked their turfs as the two best defensive teams in the country. If Missouri or West Virginia lose this weekend, we will get a chance to see how good that Buckeye defense really is. Utah stays at #3 in pass defense after an impressive performance that was one 49 yard pass short of helping them upset the Cougars.

For this week, I have added a combined rating. Because Missouri and Florida International sit on top and on bottom of all three polls, respectively, they are still on top and bottom in the combined poll. Minnesota falls below Baylor to become the worst BCS conference team in the nation - and with a 1-11 record even the gophers can't argue that. Hawaii is the highest ranked non-BCS team with BYU close on its heels. And the Longhorns fell out of the top 25 - a rough day for Colt.

With a lot of teams not playing, there wasn't much movement in the recent performance rankings, but USC did move into the top 5.

Complete Week 14 Rankings Here

Week 13 Rankings

Click Here for Complete Week 13 Rankings

Before Dennis Dixon went down, I was beginning to believe Oregon just might be the best team in the nation. My own rankings suggested that they had performed at a higher level than any other team in the nation this season. But one bad twist of the knee can shake things up quite bit.

This week I have added a Potential ranking. The Performance ranking that I have used in the past focuses on the score outcomes of games. The Potential rating takes into account a few other factors, foremost of which are total yards and "hardship". Hardship is the difficulty of the match-ups a team faces. For example, Florida's pass defense is barely above average while its run defense is 7th in the nation. Unfortunately for Florida, it has played more teams that are more dependent on the pass than on the run. Consequently, Florida has more potential than game outcomes would suggest - they are 4th by potential and 7th by performance.

The Recent ranking is how well a team has performed recently relative to their average performance. Louisiana-Monroe, for example, has jumped to #4 after the shocker in Tuscaloosa. The rest, I believe, are self-explanatory.

#1?
LSU

The Tigers managed to jump WVU this past week primarily because Pat White fumbled twice the 4th quarter and allowed the game to get closer than it needed to be.

After LSU
2. West Virginia
3. Kansas
4. Ohio State
4. Oregon
6. Missouri

Oregon menos Dixon won't be able to play up to the model's expectations, which should give the edge to Missouri and Ohio State. Missouri, if they are able to beat Kansas and Oklahoma will have enough mustard to jump Ohio State as well.

Potential Rankings:
LSU and West Virginia again are at 1 and 2. Florida jumps up to 4. Missouri also moves up into the #3 spot and Kansas is bumped down to #5.

The worse BCS team - Baylor. The Bears come in a few spots below fellow BCS powerhouses Iowa State, Minnesota, Syracuse and Duke. These teams, Northwestern and Notre Dame have all performed at a lower level than any team in the Mountain West this season.

Win Rating:
In my equivalent of a BCS poll, Kansas takes the #1 spot. Hawaii, after a dismal performance against Nevada - that resulted in a win - moves up 2 spots from last week to 6.

Consistency:
The consistency rating is like a golf score - low numbers are good. Kansas stays at number 1 for another week after they cover for the tenth time this season. The Vandals make a move up, surprising no one with their soft performance. WVU makes a surprise appearance at #4 after their rating was adjusted down a bit from past weeks.

Recent Performance:
Two hyphenated Louisiana squads bust into the top 5. Iowa State, despite losing by 38 to Kansas, is still 3rd - the Matrix predicted them to lose by 40 so they actually broke par in that game.

Offensive Efficiency:
Oregon and Florida have the most efficient run and pass offenses, respectively. Florida (aka Tebow) also makes a good argument for the most efficient offense overall, ranked 13 in run efficiency.

Defensive Efficiency:
LSU's vaunted defense took a big hit this last week and has dropped below USC and Ohio State, easily the two best defenses in the nation. South Carolina can take pride as the nation's most lopsided defense, ranked 5th in pass defense and below average in run defense.

How bad is Minnesota's defense? They have the worst run defense in the nation and the 5th worst pass defense. Overall, only Toledo is less capable of stopping their opponents - bringing shame to the entire Big 10.

For those Aggie fans on the Fire Fran bandwagon, these rankings offer some good evidence of his incompetence. The Wrecking Crew defense of legend is ranked just above Iowa State in run defense and somewhere between UAB and Ohio (not Ohio State, but Ohio) in pass defense. There are also 93 D 1A teams that pass more efficiently than A&M, including Temple and Buffalo.

Click Here for Complete Week 13 Rankings

Week 12 Picks

Complete Week 12 Predictions Here

Last week was not a great week for the Matrix (about 40% against the spread). I was able to identify some flaws, and I'm hoping it will perform better from here on out.

This isn't an exciting week. Michigan and Ohio State is suddenly much less interesting.
A lot of high ranking teams are on the road, but generally against softer competition.

This week I am reporting two point margins - Season and Recent. Obviously, the second gives more weight to recent performances. In most cases, this is rather insignificant, but not always. Iowa State makes up 10 points against Kansas (who hasn't been playing badly), but is still 30 from winning.

Game 1. (6) West Virginia @ (22) Cincinnati
Obviously, Cincinnati could win. West Virginia is very dependent on their running game and Cincinnati is tough against the run. Playing at home doesn't hurt either (and it means we don't have to watch West Virginia in bright yellow). But I could also see West Virginia scoring early and often and winning easily.

West Virginia by 2.6 (1.8), 37.9% against the spread

Game 2. (7) Ohio State @ (21) Michigan

This game does not have national title implications, but it does have Big 10 and bragging right implications that matter just as much to those involved. The Matrix ranks Ohio State as the second best defensive team in the country (only LSU is better). Michigan has filled in the holes in the secondary and now actually ranks higher in pass defense than run defense. Their are no obvious match-up issues, and Michigan only has a slight advantage in terms of recent performance, but Ohio State is just a much better team.

Ohio State by 9.2 (8.4), 75% chance of winning

Game 3. (4) Oklahoma @ Texas Tech

Statistically, this game should be much different than most people assume. Tech might lead the nation in yards, but Oklahoma is 3rd in points, 2.5 more per game than Tech. Oklahoma plays killer defense against the run, but is little above average, and worse than Tech, against the pass. Tech will move the ball and will score some points. Tech hasn't played better at home this season and throughout the year all the biggest upsets have happened on the road. But if Oklahoma got down early, it could be tough to come back in Lubbock.

Oklahoma by 10.3 (10.9), 85% chance of winning

Game 4. (17) Boston College @ (15) Clemson

These two teams are playing for a chance to play in the ACC championship game. For Clemson, it would be redemption after a sloppy start. For BC, they are trying to save a season that was flushed the last two weeks. Clemson will want to run the ball, but BC is tough against the run. BC will want to throw and Clemson plays good pass defense. But Clemson has emerged as the better team over the last few weeks and, playing at home, is definitely the favorite to win again. BC, though, will try to avoid falling from undefeated and #2 to 8-3 and unranked in 15 days.

Clemson by 7.5 (9.4), 80% chance of winning

Week 11 Predictions

See Week 11 Predictions
See Week 11 Rankings

Last week, the Matrix was 5-0 picking winners in the spotlighted games, but 1-4 against the spread (despite being 27-21 against the spread for the week across all games).

Before getting to the games, I made a couple of minor changes to fix some glitches. The big change is the Navy factor. Basically, the formula from last week gave equal weight across all teams for their pass and run efficiencies. Navy, though, scores high in pass efficiency but doesn’t win games that way. So, I’ve added a factor to weight efficiencies based on the relative importance for that team’s offense.

Now the picks.

Game 1. (18) Auburn @ (10) Georgia

Auburn has lost 3 games by a total of 14 points, including a losses to a former #2 (South Florida) and the current #2, but also managed to lose to Mississippi State. Georgia lost one game by 21 to an inferior Tennessee (though definitely not inferior on that night). Georgia has only 1 quality win (at Florida) and a semi-quality win (at Alabama). Auburn’s record looks similar (at Florida and at Arkansas). Now both teams seem to be hot and it should be a solid, defensive game. The SEC can be a little difficult to figure out, and the line-setters and the Matrix seem to be seeing it that way as well. But Georgia needs to cover and then some at home to convince me they deserve to be 10^th with two losses.

The Matrix: Georgia by ½ a point

Game 2. (17) USC @ Cal

A month ago this was set to be the big showdown in the PAC 10. Well, it turns out the big showdown already took place last week in Eugene, but this game will still throw a lot of talent on the field. Surprisingly, the two teams are only 36^th and 39^th in the nation in scoring despite having tons of talent. Cal’s offensive production has fallen every game since scoring 45 against a relatively tough Arizona defense. USC, on the other hand, played Oregon tough two weeks ago, clobbered Notre Dame’s JV team, and beat Oregon State handily last week. Unless Cal turns it around, USC should win in style but, at home, Cal has the talent to compete.

The Matrix: USC by ½ a point

Game 3. Illinois @ (1) Ohio State

My gut tells me that Ohio State better watch out for this game, but I can’t find any statistic to support that inclination. Illinois has lost some steam recently since its big win over Wisconsin. We can be confident that Juice won’t get much done in the air, but, if he can stretch the field a little, just might be able to pound out some points on the ground – against the nation’s second best run defense. Unfortunately for the Fighting Illini, Ohio State will have a much easier time scoring points. If Wells gets going, Ohio State could cover easily.

The Matrix: Ohio State by 20

Game 4. (4) Kansas @ Oklahoma State

Here’s why this game is important – Kansas is still undefeated. If Kansas wins out, it would have a portfolio that includes wins on the road and at a neutral field against top ten teams. That being the case, I think you have to put them in the national championship game, even if that means hopping them over one loss Oregon and LSU. But first it must beat the Cowboys. Kansas proved last week it could score points, and they will need to put up 35+ on Saturday if they want to win.

The Matrix: Kansas by 12

Game 5. Texas Tech @ (14) Texas

Texas Tech is 1^st in passing yards and 118^th in rushing yards, almost dead last in the nation. This isn’t new turf for Tech, but its still fun to watch. I still hold that Texas is over-rated this season, and I think Tech will show the world I’m right on Saturday. To come to the point, Harrell is a lot better than McCoy and the outcome will reflect that. The Matrix actually rates Tech higher than Texas, but gives the Longhorns a 3 point advantage at home.

The Matrix: Texas by 3

Pick of the Week:

Somehow, Iowa State has ended up on the other end of the Matrix’s pick of the week again. Colorado has a 74% of covering a five point line at Iowa State. We’ll see.

See Week 11 Predictions

Week 11 Rankings

Week 11 Rankings

#1?
Ohio State.

You can't really argue with that, can you? And if the Matrix picked the participants for the national championship game today we would see the Buckeyes against the Ducks. And, in case you're wondering, it would give Oregon a 60% chance of winning.

SEC fans might gripe about this, but SEC teams don't win big enough. LSU really shouldn't need a brilliant combination of luck and guts to beat Alabama in a late comeback. Oregon didn't need late heroics to beat Arizona State, who also has a pretty good team. And hanging your hat on the Florida-Ohio State game here won't do you any good. USC put as solid a whipping on Michigan as Florida did on Ohio State.

Some things to keep in mind when you look at the rankings. First, it is based on margin of victory, not wins and losses, but with a very rapid diminishing returns for large margins of victory. In other words, it sees a 1 point win as little better than a one point loss, but a one point loss versus a 1 point win can change a teams ranking about as much as a 15 point win instead of a 35 point win.

I've set it side by side with a few other important and sophisticated polls. The scores under Matrix represent the teams rating and the number on the far left side is the ranking according to the Matrix. The mean is a number I've pulled from masseyratings.com which compares over a hundred rankings. I'm a big fan of this compilation and of the Massey ratings.

There are a few kinks with the html that I need to work out, but that will have to wait until another day.

Click here to see the rankings

The Matrix - Week 10 Predictions

I feel like I've got some really interesting numbers on my last blog, and suggest that visitors give it a look, but I'm pretty stoked about this blog, too. This week I am presenting the Matrix, the culmination of my experiment into college football prediction models (plus whatever refinements I might want to make later).

A quick overview of the matrix. It uses two general ratings--play throughout the season and play weighted by the last games. To find the best ratings, I use an automated trial and error system that runs the teams through the season a few hundred times to find the best fit. I then adjust these two ratings for match ups in the game--offensive and defensive play against the run and pass and home field advantage.

Before we get to this week's picks, I want to quickly review my picks from last week. I finished the day 2-3, but to my credit, Boston College did not deserve to win. Morelli proved me right in Happy Valley, and Sanchez showed that USC's problems go much deeper than the play of the quarterback. I still have a hard time believing the PAC 10 is any good with Arizona State undefeated and Oregon in second (after the beat down they got last year in the Holiday Bowl). If USC is having an off year, the entire PAC 10 drops a few rungs in my opinion.

Now with a few notable picks (in a less exciting week).

Game 1. LSU @ Alabama
The only reason the spread is under 10 is that the game is at Alabama and people are waiting anxiously for Saban to perform some wonder. Keep waiting. I've heard this talk that Nick will bring his A game against his old team - but the coach doesn't play and has players don't have much of an A game. The hard hitting, low scoring game (both teams will complete less than 60% of their passes) will appear closer than it really was.

The Matrix:
LSU by 13 points, 66% of covering a -7.5 point spread

Game 2. Oregon @ Arizona State
It's disappointing to think that the Ducks, after franchise-establishing wins at Michigan and against USC could fall to the Sun Devils and out of national championship contention. It is harder to believe that Arizona State is actually good. I've heard that Oregon has "far and away the best offense in the country." That's a bunch of bologna, but they'll still win this one.

The Matrix:
Oregon by less than a point (51% chance of winning), 31% chance against the 7 point spread

Game 3. Rutgers @ Connecticut
I ragged on Connecticut last week and they proved me wrong. Rutgers' performance, on the other hand, made me look like a prophet. The Matrix favors Rutgers in every statistical category it measures but the score.

The Matrix:
Connecticut by 2.2 (57% chance of winning), toss up against the spread (-2)

Game 4. Wisconsin @ Ohio State
Ohio State will beat up on another very weak Big 10 opponent. The Ohio State University might have a legitimately good team, but the rest of the Big 10 is soft. I understand the South when they moan about a lack of balance in college football - if BC and the OSU play for the national championship at the end of the season, I don't see any good reason to recognize the winner as the best team in the country. In my opinion, if national championship game does not include West Virginia or LSU (both teams that lost only once, on the road, against more talented teams than any that BC and Ohio State play all year), or if it includes any team other than those two, Oregon or Ohio State, I won't bother to watch. But Ohio State, with powerful wins over Akron and Kent State, which is better known for a shooting than football, has played well this season.

The Matrix:
Ohio State by 23 (94% chance of winning), 70% chance against the spread (-15.5)

Game 5. Texas A&M @ Oklahoma
Its a bad week for college football and I could only find 4 games of real importance, so I picked the 5th game as a homer. Stat of the game--the Matrix sees Oklahoma holding the Aggies to 3 yards per carry. I'd like to console myself by saying that A&M was only one stupid call away from beating Oklahoma last year, but the same coach that made that same stupid call (to kick the field goal) made the same stupid call last week against Kansas and seems, in fact, to be perfecting the art of stupid calls.

The Matrix:
Oklahoma by 20 (92% chance of winning), 47% chance against the spread (-21)

The most interesting game this week is Navy at Notre Dame. The Midshipmen haven't pulled out a win in a little less than a half-century (1963, I believe), but this year they get to play the JV. Navy is favored by 3.5, the Matrix gives them less than a point, but my gut tells me it won't be that close. Navy's run attack is good enough to put up points against anyone, and Notre Dame's offense is bad enough to stop themselves on an empty field.

Picks of the week:
I'm not a gambler, and I don't suggest it personally, but I do like outsmarting the folks in Vegas, so I present three games where the Matrix believes they are off the mark.

Illinois is favored by 12 and still the Matrix gives them a 72% chance of covering at Minnesota. Not only do the Gophers have an appallingly bad defense, their offense isn't half as good as the Big 10 likes to believe it is - but they did manage 21 against the might Bison of North Dakota State.

UTEP is favored by 7 at Rice, but they'll win by more than 15, 70% chance of covering. Even Texas, that has struggled against almost everyone this season (including powerhouses like Arkansas State and UCF), blew out Rice.

Iowa State has played tougher in recent weeks against Missouri and, especially, Oklahoma, but they are still one of the worst teams in FBS. Kansas State will cover the 14 point spread and win by 30+, 90% chance against the spread. Need I mention that Iowa State is the only other team against which Texas has looked competent.

Click the image below to see the rest of the picks. Rankings based on the matrix will be released starting next week.

CSV file

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