Bowl Picks 2

Hawaii Bowl. Boise State vs. East Carolina

The talk of the town is that Boise State will have a letdown in this game and started slowly after the BCS miracle last season. Obviously, these people have never been to Boise or played in the WAC. East Carolina's trips to Virginia Tech and West Virginia received much more national attention than any game Boise State has played in this season (including at Hawaii). The Pirates' Chris Johnson is a stud, averaging an opponent-adjusted 5 yards per carry, but Boise State is definitely the better team in this game.

The Matrix - Boise State by 8.8, 46.3% against the spread

Motor City Bowl. Central Michigan vs. Purdue

What a miserable bowl to be forced to play in - how can you recruit to a school where a conference championship and decent season is capped off with a trip to Detroit in late December? Central Michigan has played three BCS conference teams this years, losing by 45, 23 and 56 points. If there is greater parity in college football, it ain't coming from the MAC. We may expect a different outcome this time from the previous meeting (when Purdue won by 23) after the dismissal of Lymon, but losing an athlete for conduct detrimental is not as bad as losing a leader to injury and, in some cases, can be a real blessing if his conduct was really detrimental. The critical point is that Central Michigan plays poor pass D (114th in the nation according to the Matrix) and Purdue will throw the ball 40 to 50 times.

The Matrix - Purdue by 6, 42% against the spread

Holiday Bowl. Arizona St. vs. Texas

These are two teams that, in my opinion, are meeting at a crossroads as they move in opposite directions. Two years ago from now, Texas had one of the best college football teams the world has ever known. Arizona St was struggling on the bowl eligibility bubble. Texas is losing more recruiting battles to LSU, OU, A&M, OSU, and even Tech (but not Baylor), has placed too many athletes in Austin's prisons recently, and has lost its last 3 games against rivals A&M and OU. Texas is still among the toughest against the run, but ASU has the better overall opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency and won't be all that interested in running the ball anyway.

The Matrix - ASU by 2.5, 61.8% against the spread

Champs Sports Bowl. Michigan St. vs. Boston College

Where the Purdue/Central Michigan game is a no win situation for the Big 10 - no one's impressed when you beat the Chippewa's - the Spartans could knock off BC, the ACC runner-up and former national title contender, and win back some Big 10 pride. Don't believe the hype about Ryan and BC's efficient offense - Michigan St is more efficient on the ground and in the air than the Eagles. Michigan State could pull off the upset in a shootout.

The Matrix - Boston College by 5.3, 55.9% against the spread

Texas Bowl. TCU vs. Houston

Who's going to get excited about this game? Houston doesn't have fans and TCU fans were expecting a BCS bowl berth when the season kicked-off. Houston is headless and TCU has been stumbling around all season. When Houston has the ball, we will be seeing a top 20 offense against a top 20 defense and should be, for college football fans, fun to watch.

The Matrix - TCU by 4.8, 54.3% against the spread

Emerald Bowl. Maryland vs. Oregon State

It's been a tough year for the Terps. After losing half the starting roster and losing to North Carolina, Maryland needed 2 wins in 3 games to go bowling - and beat Boston College and North Carolina State (37-0) to punch their ticket. Oregon St. has had the nation's most efficient run defense and Friedgen needs to run the ball to take pressure off of Turner.

The Matrix - Oregon St by 5.8, 53.2% against the spread

Week 10 Recap and the Field Goal Calculator

With one game left this weekend, I thought it was about time to report on the initial results from the Matrix's first weekend. All in all, things have gone well. The Matrix correctly picked the winner in 38 of 53 games and was 27-21 against the line.

And it could have been better. If you look back at the picks (table) from last week, you might notice that Oregon is listed as the road team against Arizona State. Unless Arizona State has decided to start playing its home games thousands of miles from home, this is a typo. The Matrix gives teams a bonus if they are playing at home, and, in this case, gave Oregon's "at-home" credit to Arizona State. This mistake shifted the prediction, in this case, by about nine points. In other words, if the Matrix would have been fed accurate data, it would have been correct.

Then there is Rice and Texas. After ragging on these two teams last week, they put up a combined 52 points in the 4th quarter to win and cover the spread. Cincinnati put up 31 in the 1st quarter to do the same. And then the Demon Deacons felt the Cavalier curse and missed what would have been the winning field goal in the last seconds.

But I found a more worrying issue when I looked more closely at the results from the Matrix. Against the line, the Matrix was 0-2 when it gave one team an 80% chance or greater of covering. One, which I mentioned before, was Rice and their 20 point comeback. The other was Iowa State, who seems to actually be a much better team these days. The Matrix was most accurate when it gave one team only a small advantage.

The game of the week, in my opinion, lived up to its billing (that I gave it). Navy wins in triple overtime on a failed two point conversion attempt. Historic. I'm a bit biased towards the midshipmen - I love to watch their offense - but how could anyone that isn't a Catholic not jump on the Navy bandwagon after that game.

The Field Goal Calculator

The field goal calculator is my initial attempt to create an adjustable system that can estimate the number of points that a team will get on average if they kick a field goal or go for it on 4th down. The calculations come from an earlier blog and are not, by any means, perfect, but I think it is a good starting point.

Here, I have provided an excel spreadsheet so users can play with it themselves. The spreadsheet has 4 entries and a graph. You can adjust it for the leg strength of the kicker (average = 0), the accuracy of the kicker (average = 0), the average yards per play for that team, and the number of yards the team needs to get a first down. The graph shows how many points that team could expect to get if they went for it or if they kicked the field goal from various points on the field.

Download Field Goal Calculator.xls

The Matrix - Week 10 Predictions

I feel like I've got some really interesting numbers on my last blog, and suggest that visitors give it a look, but I'm pretty stoked about this blog, too. This week I am presenting the Matrix, the culmination of my experiment into college football prediction models (plus whatever refinements I might want to make later).

A quick overview of the matrix. It uses two general ratings--play throughout the season and play weighted by the last games. To find the best ratings, I use an automated trial and error system that runs the teams through the season a few hundred times to find the best fit. I then adjust these two ratings for match ups in the game--offensive and defensive play against the run and pass and home field advantage.

Before we get to this week's picks, I want to quickly review my picks from last week. I finished the day 2-3, but to my credit, Boston College did not deserve to win. Morelli proved me right in Happy Valley, and Sanchez showed that USC's problems go much deeper than the play of the quarterback. I still have a hard time believing the PAC 10 is any good with Arizona State undefeated and Oregon in second (after the beat down they got last year in the Holiday Bowl). If USC is having an off year, the entire PAC 10 drops a few rungs in my opinion.

Now with a few notable picks (in a less exciting week).

Game 1. LSU @ Alabama
The only reason the spread is under 10 is that the game is at Alabama and people are waiting anxiously for Saban to perform some wonder. Keep waiting. I've heard this talk that Nick will bring his A game against his old team - but the coach doesn't play and has players don't have much of an A game. The hard hitting, low scoring game (both teams will complete less than 60% of their passes) will appear closer than it really was.

The Matrix:
LSU by 13 points, 66% of covering a -7.5 point spread

Game 2. Oregon @ Arizona State
It's disappointing to think that the Ducks, after franchise-establishing wins at Michigan and against USC could fall to the Sun Devils and out of national championship contention. It is harder to believe that Arizona State is actually good. I've heard that Oregon has "far and away the best offense in the country." That's a bunch of bologna, but they'll still win this one.

The Matrix:
Oregon by less than a point (51% chance of winning), 31% chance against the 7 point spread

Game 3. Rutgers @ Connecticut
I ragged on Connecticut last week and they proved me wrong. Rutgers' performance, on the other hand, made me look like a prophet. The Matrix favors Rutgers in every statistical category it measures but the score.

The Matrix:
Connecticut by 2.2 (57% chance of winning), toss up against the spread (-2)

Game 4. Wisconsin @ Ohio State
Ohio State will beat up on another very weak Big 10 opponent. The Ohio State University might have a legitimately good team, but the rest of the Big 10 is soft. I understand the South when they moan about a lack of balance in college football - if BC and the OSU play for the national championship at the end of the season, I don't see any good reason to recognize the winner as the best team in the country. In my opinion, if national championship game does not include West Virginia or LSU (both teams that lost only once, on the road, against more talented teams than any that BC and Ohio State play all year), or if it includes any team other than those two, Oregon or Ohio State, I won't bother to watch. But Ohio State, with powerful wins over Akron and Kent State, which is better known for a shooting than football, has played well this season.

The Matrix:
Ohio State by 23 (94% chance of winning), 70% chance against the spread (-15.5)

Game 5. Texas A&M @ Oklahoma
Its a bad week for college football and I could only find 4 games of real importance, so I picked the 5th game as a homer. Stat of the game--the Matrix sees Oklahoma holding the Aggies to 3 yards per carry. I'd like to console myself by saying that A&M was only one stupid call away from beating Oklahoma last year, but the same coach that made that same stupid call (to kick the field goal) made the same stupid call last week against Kansas and seems, in fact, to be perfecting the art of stupid calls.

The Matrix:
Oklahoma by 20 (92% chance of winning), 47% chance against the spread (-21)

The most interesting game this week is Navy at Notre Dame. The Midshipmen haven't pulled out a win in a little less than a half-century (1963, I believe), but this year they get to play the JV. Navy is favored by 3.5, the Matrix gives them less than a point, but my gut tells me it won't be that close. Navy's run attack is good enough to put up points against anyone, and Notre Dame's offense is bad enough to stop themselves on an empty field.

Picks of the week:
I'm not a gambler, and I don't suggest it personally, but I do like outsmarting the folks in Vegas, so I present three games where the Matrix believes they are off the mark.

Illinois is favored by 12 and still the Matrix gives them a 72% chance of covering at Minnesota. Not only do the Gophers have an appallingly bad defense, their offense isn't half as good as the Big 10 likes to believe it is - but they did manage 21 against the might Bison of North Dakota State.

UTEP is favored by 7 at Rice, but they'll win by more than 15, 70% chance of covering. Even Texas, that has struggled against almost everyone this season (including powerhouses like Arkansas State and UCF), blew out Rice.

Iowa State has played tougher in recent weeks against Missouri and, especially, Oklahoma, but they are still one of the worst teams in FBS. Kansas State will cover the 14 point spread and win by 30+, 90% chance against the spread. Need I mention that Iowa State is the only other team against which Texas has looked competent.

Click the image below to see the rest of the picks. Rankings based on the matrix will be released starting next week.

CSV file

Sortable Table