Games to Watch

(Complete Week 1 Picks Here)
TEAM1 (Record) |Spread| [ATS] @ Team2 (Record) [ATS]

Ohio State (4-1) |-2.5| [-12.9] @ Wisconsin (3-1) [+1.0]
Why we care: Big Ten title is still up for grabs. More importantly, we get are first look at Terrelle Pryor as the number 1.
What to watch for: How much of the offense has Pryor absorbed and how healthy is Beanie Wells. Ohio State already has one of the more efficient run offenses in the country-and it should only get better. But can Pryor stretch the field? Wisconsin is good enough up front that they will stop you unless you pull back and throw it over their heads every once in a while.

Pick: Ohio State 19, Wisconsin 9

Auburn (4-1) |-4| [-2.4] @ Vanderbilt (4-0) [+15.9]

Why we care: Vandy just might win this one, and they might win because they might be the better team-that is reason enough for me.
What to watch for: Who screws up first. Don't expect this to be a game of offensive fireworks. These two teams couldn't move the ball consistently against their own scout teams. Whoever gets to 14 first wins.

Misc: Remember how the SEC East was supposed to be dominant this year? Now their last remaining shimmer of hope is the Commodores?

Pick: Vanderbilt 17, Auburn 14
Connecticut (5-0) |-1| [+5.0] @ North Carolina (3-1) [+14.0]

Why we care: UNC is probably an up and coming program under Butch Davis and has looked competitive in its 4 outings, while UConn looks to start 6-0.

What to watch for: QB play. Both teams are without their starting quarterbacks. This turn of events favors UConn who has the top rusher in the country in Donald Brown-who was a week one player that impressed. But North Carolina has looked like the more explosive team and has played the tougher schedule.

Pick: North Carolina 32, UConn 19

Matrix Picks

Here are the Matrix picks for this weekend. Some interesting picks: Kansas State over Texas Tech-the Matrix sees Kansas State out-dueling the Red Raiders, throwing for over 8 yards a pass while holding Tech to under 6. Illinois over Michigan-no big surprise to me. Vandy over Auburn-Vandy will hold Auburn to under 3.5 yards per play and score enough points to pull out the tough victory. (Click the image to see a larger version.)

Games to Watch: Week 5

Had I written this a bit earlier, I wouldn't have included USC at Oregon State. But now I know--if you haven't seen this game yet, to to ESPN360 right now and watch it. You'll learn couple of important things:

1) This wasn't one of those "the better team played crappy and turned the ball over 18 times and lost." Oregon State exposed weaknesses on the USC defensive line and gave defensive coordinators some very good ideas for slowing the Trojan offense down in future weeks.

2) The Rodgers brother are really, really good; Jacquizz was the best player on the field Thursday night.

3) USC has serious problems with injuries. Sanchez's knee is in bad shape and the USC linebacker corp of myth and legend will be lucky to survive through the season.

Alabama (+6.5) at Georgia

Why we care: Alabama and Georgia have gotten to this point by soundly beating the two most over-rated teams in college football (Clemson and Arizona State).

What to watch for: Line play. Georgia is better at every other position on the field, but Alabama is stronger on the lines. Alabama was in this situation earlier in the season and ambushed Clemson. Also watch WR's Julio Jones and AJ Green. Not only are they incredible talents and potential playmakers, but if they do produce they can add that second dimension to their teams and make them many times more explosive.

Misc: If wearing a black uni makes you play harder, you're not really a man. PS-I don't like Nick Saban.

Pick: Alabama by 3

Illinois (+15.5) at Penn State

Why we care: The winner, especially if its Penn State, could be taking their first big step towards getting blown out by USC in the Rose Bowl.

What to watch for: Penn State has a ton of talent on offense, but the defense hasn't been challenged yet. Can Joe Pa's boys contain Juice and Co.?

Misc: No one benefitted more than Penn State from Oregon State's win over USC. Not only does it open one more door towards a shot at the title, but it gives Penn State's 45-14 Beaver beatdown a lot more legitimacy as a meaningful win.

Pick: Penn State by 10

TCU (+18) at Oklahoma

Why we care: OU is the interim #1. If TCU wins this game, we might see a strong put to include a MWC team in the championship game at season's end.

What to watch for: OU has score 57, 52 and 55 while TCU is giving up 7 points a game. Something's got to give--and the giving will be decided at the line of scrimmage. TCU has a legitimately good defense, but they don't have the size to match up on the line against OU's All-American OL. If the DL can free up the linebackers and put some pressure on Bradford this game could get very interesting. If not (the more likely scenario), OU will cover.

Misc: If the new Big XII had brought in TCU instead of Baylor, 1) the Big XII South would be the best division in the history of college football, and 2) this game would be every bit as important as the Alabama/Georgia game.

Pick: OU by 14

Games to Watch in Week 3

So far this season I am 9-1 picking winners and 6-3 against the spread-7-2 if Urban Meyer hadn't insisted on kicking that last second field goal against Miami. If I had avoided emotional picks (i.e. games involving Nick Saban, Urban Meyer and BYU), I'd be perfect.

Ohio State (+10.5) [-22] at USC [+25.5]

Why we care: These two schools have combined for 9 AP national championships and 1,451 wins.

NCAAF - Ohio State @ USC - Who will win?

What to watch for: 1) The condition of Beanie Wells' toe. Ohio State's backups proved to the world last week that the OSU O-line is overrated because it has been blocking for a super-premiere back, and when they are blocking for mortal runningbacks, the Ohio State running game suffers. The USC defense will not get worn down like that of Ohio. No Beanie, no W for the Buckeyes.
2) The matchup of the USC receivers and Ohio State secondary. Ohio State has the advantage here, and if they are able to rely on a lot of man coverage and stack 8 in the box, USC could have trouble moving the ball. Sanchez will not be able to make plays with his feet the way "Boo" did last week for the Bobcats (especially if their are still some subconscious concerns about the infamous knee) which will make USC predictable offensively.

Misc: A 10 point spread historically means that OSU has about a 1 in 5 chance of winning this game (which is remarkably consistent with Hubdub).

Pick: USC by 5

Kansas (+2.5) [+.75] at USF [-7]

Why we care: A win for USF will rank it officially as the class of the Big East, a title it might then hold indefinitely.

What to watch for: The Kansas pass rush. Kansas may have the best linebackers and secondary in the Big XII (which, by the way, is a much better conference than the Big East). But if the pass rush gives Bulls' QB Matt Grothe time to move and create, he will. On the other side, Todd Reesing is completing more than 3 of every 4 passes and Kansas has two backs getting more than 5 yards a carry. They will score their points, but USF's George Selvie will put enough pressure on an untested line to get a few stops. Kansas will also, then, need some stops to avoid getting outscored (aka losing).


Misc: In 2004, these teams combined for 8 wins, a mark both surpassed individually last year.

Pick: Kansas by 5

Georgia (-7) [+15.5] at South Carolina [+2.75]

Why we care: The wrong team came out on top of this one last year.

NCAAF - Georgia @ South Carolina - Who wins ATS?

What to watch for: The over/under. The line opened at 8, but money was heavy on South Carolina +8. This tells me that people expect the game to be low scoring. If South Carolina can stay within 7 into the 4th quarter, this could be anyone's ball game. If Georgia can score some points early, SC won't be able to keep up.

Misc: Its been a really, really long time since Spurrier had a quality season.

Pick: Georgia by 10.

Michigan (+1.5) [-5] at Notre Dame [-14.5]

Why we care: If you thought Ohio State and USC had combined for a lot of championships and wins . . .

What to watch for: Can Sam McGuffie break out? I see no reason to believe that Notre Dame will score an offensive point in this game. Last year, ND finished 116th in scoring (near the bottom) and 119th in total yards (that is the bottom). To kickoff this season, Cal Poly outgained them by 141 yards against a mutual opponent. And Michigan actually plays solid D.
On the other side, Notre Dame returns a secondary that was 2nd in the nation in pass D. Against a typical Rich Rodriquez team, that stat would be pointless, but Michigan, if you haven't noticed, doesn't have a mobile quarterback. The Domer run defense, though, was exploitable and had to be rebuilt after last season. With a good scheme and better execution, UM RB McGuffie could have a big day, helping Michigan score those 3 points it will need to win.

Misc: Scouts Inc. gave ND the advantage in terms of coaching. Huh?

Pick: Michigan by 3

Temple (+6.5) [+12.5] at Buffalo [12]

Why we care: (Bet you weren't expecting this one) In 4 games against D1A opponents, these two perennial crappers are +39 in margin of victory and +24.5 against the spread.

What to watch for: I'll be frank-I haven't watched either of these teams in a couple of years, so I could regurgitate something I've read in Athlon or Scouts, but instead I'll advice you to seek it yourselves. I am excited to watch these two teams duke it out on ESPN360, though.

Misc: Temple does actually have a football team and they, like the more distinguished BB team, are called the Owls. Both Buffalo and Temple are in the MAC (East). Eleven of the 119 D1A teams play in smaller stadiums than Buffalo.

Pick: Buffalo by 6.5

Other Don't Missers: Wisconsin at Fresno, UCLA at BYU--When power conference reps travel to meet the mid-majors, interesting things can happen.

Quick Notes: Opening Day

Head Ball Coach has a defense. South Carolina made a statement in their opener. In beating NC State 34-0, they gave up only 49 passing yards and forced 4 turnovers. But we knew SC’s defense was good. If the 4 Gamecock turnovers and offensive hiccups were just products of first game jitters, this Spurrier team could be for real—which means they finish 4^th in the SEC East.

The Runaround. Miami is fast. Really fast. Or Charleston Southern has tried to field a team of professional speed walkers. It's too bad no one was there to see the performance-even the fanciest camera angles couldn't hide all the empty seats.

What could’ve been and what can be. In January, Ryan Perriloux was the projected starter of the defending national champions. Now, LSU will start a Harvard transfer at QB and Ryan Perriloux is the starting QB at Jacksonville State. The entire town of Jacksonville couldn’t fill the visitor’s section at LSU’s Tiger Stadium.

Georgia Tech showed some potential in becoming a well-oiled Paul Johnson machine. The wide receivers were either making pancake blocks 30 yards downfield or catching goofy passes from QB Josh Nesbitt after releasing from the infamous “run haphazardly and get wide open” route. Half the time I had no idea where the ball was, and then I would find that it was 20 yards downfield and in the hands of someone I was pretty confident started the play on the sideline. Jonathan Dwyer, playing the hybrid running back/fullback B-Back position in Johnson’s scheme, will run for 1000+ yards this season and make the position a sexy one at Georgia Tech despite being only two inches from the QB’s butt.

But the Jackets still have a ways to go. The 2 fumbles and 70 yards of penalties can be reduced or eliminated. Josh Nesbitt completed only 5 of 12 passes. Last year’s Navy team hardly let the ball touch the grass on fumbles or incompletions and was penalized less than 30 yards a game.

Player that impressed. UConn’s RB Donald Brown is a stud. He is a known commodity in the Big East, but doesn’t get the recognition he deserves nationally. Against Hofstra, he demonstrated great vision and the ability to pop through the seam. He doesn’t have the bulk to carry the load for an entire game, but he won’t have to.

On the Money. I made two picks for Thursday's games and was an impressive 2-0 straight up and against the spread. The problem with achieving perfection this early in the season, though, is that I can only go down from here.

Games to Watch in Week 1

You should watch every game this weekend, but if you have a job or a life or a limited attention span, here's where you should focus your energies.

Legend: Team1 (line) [ATL in ‘07] vs./at Team2 [ATL in ‘07] (location)

Illinois (+8.5) [-0.42] vs. Missouri [-10.51] (St. Louis)

Why we care: It’s the only game this weekend that puts two really good teams on the same field.

What to watch for: First, how does Illinois recover from the loss of RB Mendenhall? Second, enjoy the Daniel to Maclin show.

Misc.: Missouri was better at football than Arkansas last year. In fact, matching those two up in a bowl game was an insult to the Big 12.
Missouri coaches and players have probably all invested in second homes in St. Louis to offset the hotel expenses. Regular season college football is not supposed to be played at neutral sites-only bowl games.

Pick: Missouri by 10.

Utah (+4) [-5.12] at Michigan [3.44]

Why we care: This is the first of a series of games pitting MWC teams against beatable BCS opponents, which will be important for legitimating a BYU (or Utah) run at a BCS bowl. Oh, yeah, and Michigan hired a new head coach.

What to watch for: The Michigan offense. Michigan is only two years away from a late season #2 ranking and a year away from a preseason #5. If the offense clicks, this could be a tough team (and Rich Rodriguez might just get a big head—the shame). If not, Utah will run away with this game and the year of the MWC begins.

Misc.: Last year, Rich’s team was called the Mountaineers. Last year, Rich’s new team lost to the Mountaineers. Last year, Rich’s team almost won a DI-A national championship. Last year, Rich’s new team wasn’t good enough to win the DI-AA national championship.

Pick: Utah by 5.

Troy (-6) [-9.65] at Middle Tennessee [-2.32]

Why we care: Two of the three best teams in the Sun Belt will be taking the field in Murfreesboro this Thursday. For Sun Belt teams, conference titles and a chance to knock off a BCS team are everything.

What to watch for: Last year, Troy had a legitimately good offense, averaging 453 yards a game, scoring 41 against Oklahoma State in a winning effort and another 34 against Georgia in a loss. Troy has to replace a QB Haugabook, though, and Thursday will be our first competitive look at new QB Jamie Hampton.
Middle Tennessee, on the other hand, has to replace almost everyone. Thursday’s game will help us decide whether the Blue Raiders are competing or rebuilding in 2008.

Misc.: Last year, Troy knocked off BCS foe Oklahoma State and Middle Tennessee State came a sliver from knocking off a very good Virginia team. In the next several weeks, the Troy Trojans will travel to LSU, Ohio State and Oklahoma State.

Pick: Troy by 10.

Wake Forest (-13) [-3.48] at Baylor [1.75]

Why we care: The beginning of the Art Briles era in Waco. Baylor has been competitive in the past under the great Grant Teaff, and could be again if Briles is able to make more out of less talent with a quirky offense (as Mike Leach has done at Texas Tech). If Baylor does become competitive again, the Big 12 South will be the best division in college football, hands down.
Some people care about ACC football, too. If Clemson slips, Wake Forest should get their shot at Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game-a game that will belong to the Atlantic representative.

What to watch for: With QB Riley Skinner, RB Josh Adams and 9 starters on defense back from last year’s team, we should know what to expect from Wake Forest. The question marks are all on the Baylor side. QBs Kirby Freeman and Robert Griffin have the talent to run a dynamic offense, but experience in the offense and the skill players around them to make it click have gone AWOL. The Baylor defense was horrible last season and we can anticipate a repeat performance.

Misc.: I probably played in 20 high school football games in stadiums larger than Wake’s Groves Stadium. One of those games was against Waco High.

Pick: Wake by 20.

Appalachian State (NA) [NA] at LSU [-4.56]

Why we care: University of Michigan 32 Appalachian State University 34

What to watch for: The QBs. Mountaineer QB Armanti Edwards is supposed to be the real deal – Wikipedia page and all. He looked like it against Michigan last year, but then again, Oregon’s Dennis Dixon looked like he could have walked on water had it been raining a week later in the Big House. LSU is reloading, but LSU recruits well enough to reload. Inexplicably, LSU will need to rely on a 47 year-old Harvard transfer at QB in Andrew Hatch. This game gives us a sneak peak of LSU’s new team and of Heisman hopeful Armanti Edwards against legitimate talent.

Misc.: Let’s just say, hypothetically speaking, that App. State pulls this one out. Could they get Les Miles fired, too?

Pick: LSU by 25. (Les, your job is safe until Alabama comes to town.)

Clemson (-5) [-5.08] vs. Alabama [1.83] (Atlanta)

Why we care: The national sports media have collectively built a shrine to Nick Saban and his unachieving Crimson Tide. This game also represents Clemson’s first test.

What to watch: Line play when Clemson has the ball. The Alabama D-line is not going to win many games singlehandedly, but it just might win this one if the Clemson O-line is as poor as some fear. Clemson’s D is good enough to keep Alabama in check and the offensive skill guys for Clemson are good enough that, if given time, it could be a long day for the Tide.

Misc.: I don’t like Nick Saban.

Pick: Clemson by 10[0?].

Bowl Picks 5 - BCS Bowls

Complete Bowl Picks

The Matrix and the folks in Vegas don't seem agree about the BCS matchups. In most cases here, I take the side of the folks in Vegas.


Rose Bowl. Illinois vs. USC

If Illinois were to win this game, they might start next season in the top 5 and Ron Zook would be elected governor of Illinois. The only offense of note in this game is Illinois' run game which will face up against the 2nd most efficient run D in the country. The Illini, though, already beat the 3rd ranked run defense (the Ohio State). Mendenhall is as good of a runningback as any in the country and Juice is another dangerous running back who throws the ball more than most. USC, though, also touts a tough running game that now, in the form of Joe McKnight, is showing a little more explosiveness. USC is the better team and is essentially playing at home, but they don't have the fire power to put Illinois away.

The Matrix - USC by 8.3, 39.8% against the spread

Sugar Bowl. Georgia vs. Hawaii

All season, I wanted this mediocre Hawaii team to lose so they wouldn't get to this point and embarrass the non-BCS fraternity. Hawaii is undefeated because they have played the 105th toughest schedule in the nation - they beat Louisiana Tech by 1, got lucky against San Jose State and have a loss against Nevada in my unofficial record keeping. They are a better team when Colt is on the field, but who's to say Georgia won't get a couple of solid hits and knock him out of the game in the 1st quarter. And QB Colt Brennan will take his shots, because Hawaii has no running game and the Georgia lineman can pin back their ears and speed rush. Georgia's pass D is not spectacular, but it has the speed in the secondary it needs to contain Hawaii's receivers. On the other side, watch RB Knowshon Moreno to have a big game. He is in my RB top five (with McFadden, Charles at Texas, Patrick at OU, and UCF's Kevin Smith). I'm not as impressed with Georgia as others, but I think they have the speed to be where the Hawaii players are and the strength to put them down once they get there.

The Matrix - Georgia by 3.7, 33.1% against the spread

Fiesta Bowl. West Virginia vs. Oklahoma

These two teams would be playing in the national championship game but they suffered freakish upsets when their quarterbacks got knocked out. West Virginia was hit the hardest, because they lost in the very last game to a rival and because they have fewer opportunities to win titles than OU. Now, after being kicked in the gut, Rich Rodriquez has gutted the coaching staff. Pat White will have some time to recover from bruisings, but WVU, a 1-dimensional run offense, will be facing one of the nation's best run defenses. To make matters worse, by the end of the season OU's offense was as effective as as I've seen all year. QB Bradford rarely lets the ball touch the ground or an opponent, and OU's stable of NFL running backs runs through holes opened up by a dominant O-line. And Stoops is a better coach than whoever WVU will be able to pick out from the pee-wee league. Personally, I have loved watching WVU for the last two seasons and hope them the best after Rich jumped ship, so I hope they can at least keep this game close for the first half. If the game stays reasonably close, this will be the game to watch this bowl season.

The Matrix - Oklahoma by 1.2, 35.1% against the spread

Orange Bowl. Virignia Tech vs. Kansas

I agree with everyone else that Missouri, not Kansas, should be in this game. But here's why Kansas is good: QB Todd Reesing has completed more than 60% of his passes for 3200 yards. The human sledgehammer RB Brandon McAnderson has rushed for over 1,000 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry and scoring 16 times. And they have a top 10 defense in adjusted yards per play. Watching the game, I was convinced that Kansas was better than Missouri, but made rare mistakes that cost them the game (and, therefore, Missouri should be in this game). I've only watched two Hokies games in their entirety, and one of those was the slaughtering LSU put on them, so my impressions maybe skewed. But Virginia Tech's "stifling" defense has only managed to stifle two offenses worth noting (BC and Clemson) and Kansas will bring in the best offense they have seen all season. And Virginia Tech will struggle against a Jayhawk defense that has allowed fewer opponent-adjusted yards per play than the Hokies own. It is also significant that Kansas has no significant injuries. On the other hand, Kansas has won all year against inferior opponents with inferior talent and Virginia Tech's speed may be their undoing.

The Matrix - Virginia Tech by .8, 43.1% against the spread

National Champion Game. Ohio State vs. LSU

I was thinking I would make a special blog entry for this game or do something to set it apart until I remembered that I don't actually care all that much about this game. These two teams deserve to be in this game, but this season will go down with 1990 and 1984 as seasons in which a national champion was named only because we feel compelled to name a national champion - not because any team merited the title.

This hogwash about Ohio State not being able to deal with a mobile quarterback is, well, hogwash. Ohio State has a solid defense with real athletes. Only one team broke 20 against the Buckeyes this year, and Illinois (who managed 28, 32 less than Arknasas against LSU) are not similar to LSU in style. And Tressel & Co. can have the athletes to game plan in the two weeks they have running up to the game - and they can watch film on what 13 other teams have tried to stop Crowton's very undynamic offense.

The real story, in my opinion, for this game is going to be the health of LSU. Here is the injury report for LSU from NOLA.com:

Linebacker Darry Beckwith (12/3, right ankle) is probable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Running back Trindon Holliday (12/3, ankle) is probable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Wide receiver Early Doucet (12/3, shoulder) is probable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Quarterback Ryan Perrilloux (12/3, finger) is probable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Quarterback Matt Flynn (12/3, shoulder) is probable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Defensive tackle Charles Alexander (12/3, knee) will miss the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Guard Will Arnold (12/3, viral infection) is questionable for the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State. Left tackle Mark Snyder (12/3, knee) will miss the BCS National Championship on 1/7 against Ohio State.

That's a long list and includes a lot of critical contributors. LSU has better athletes and was dominant before injury slimmed their ranks, and will win if they have their team back.

The Matrix - Ohio State by 1.9, 73.3% against the spread

Week 14 Picks

Complete Picks Here

The schedule is short this week, and with blockbusters like Miami (OH) hosting Central Michigan and Tulsa going to Central Florida, it will be easier to focus on the more important games. Several conference championships and the entire slate of BCS bowl match ups will be decided this weekend. And, of course, the Cadets and Midshipmen have their annual showdown - that everyone pretends to care about.

Game 1. Missouri vs. Oklahoma

Missouri is playing in the most important game of the week for the second time in a row. When they played in Norman, they combined for 72 points. I wouldn't be surprised if they combined for 90 this week. Statistically, Oklahoma is better on offense, defense (in terms of opponent-adjusted efficiency), and at scoring points. Missouri is better at beating around Colorado and Tech. The Matrix gives a strong edge to the Tigers - the most likely team this weekend to cover - but I will be surprised if Missouri loses by less than last time. Missouri deserves to be #1, but Oklahoma has more talent, experience, and a much bigger chip on the shoulder. I got to watch OU, Kansas and Missouri play A&M in successive weeks, and the Sooners were head and shoulders above the other two in those games.

The Matrix - Missouri by 10, 89.5% chance to cover

Game 2. UCLA @ USC

The Buckeyes would be wise to keep a close eye on this game. If USC wins and Missouri wins, they'll have to go into the Rose Bowl. If that happens, the Big-10 will get embarrassed for a second year in a row. The Ohio State wouldn't get into double digits against USC. USC will beat the Bruins, win in the Rose Bowl, and start next year off at #1 again.

The Matrix - USC by 15.2, 43.9% chance to cover

Game 3. LSU vs. Tennessee

This game was a couple of two point conversions short of being hugely important. LSU's defense is limping into this game and will need to win this game by putting points on the board. Tennessee has been unpredictable, and have been especially vulnerable away from Neyland, but LSU couldn't blow out my high school team. First team to 30 will win.

The Matrix - LSU by 12.8, 62.9% chance against the spread

Game 4. Navy @ Army

In my opinion, the only things funner to watch than Navy's offense in college football is McFadden operating from the shotgun. Army has worse pass D efficiency than Utah State and a worse run D efficiency than the Black Shirts - and that's really bad. But Navy has the worse defense in this game, and maybe the entire nation. Navy is favored by 14, and they will need to score 70 to cover.

The Matrix - Navy by 2.5, 13.2% chance to cover

If the Matrix is correct, we should see Missouri and West Virginia in the championship game, Boston College and Georgia in the Orange Bowl, Ohio State and USC in the Rose Bowl, Kansas and Arizona State in the Fiesta Bowl, and LSU against Hawaii in New Orleans.

Complete Picks Here

Week 13 Picks

Table: Week 13 Picks and Odds

Supporters of the BCS system should be pleased. This season has turned itself into a natural tournament. LSU, Missouri and Kansas are in the quarterfinals. West Virginia is the champion of the losers bracket and Oregon and Ohio State are ready to take their spot if they falter. Ironically, in a season that has lacked dominant teams the BCS system might succeed in identifying two consensus national championship contenders. Or it might not.

We start with the Big 12.

Game 1. Kansas vs. Missouri (neutral site)
I don't this game was marked on many calenders outside of Lawrence and Columbia, but it is now the most important game of rivalry weekend. Kansas has made a name for itself by playing tough defense (12th in the nation by my rankings in run and pass def. efficiency) and mistake free offense. Missouri has play makers, two of which (Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin) are becoming household names. The two teams have had success by making the most of less talent and being consistent. Missouri is hoping to get a rematch against Oklahoma and a birth in the national championship game (consecutive wins over Kansas and Oklahoma should boost them over WVU), but the Matrix gives them only a 37% chance of winning this game and the Big 12 North

The Matrix - Kansas by 2.6, 53% against the line

Game 2. Connecticut @ West Virginia
The surprise here is not that this game matters, but that UConn actually has a chance of winning. Unfortunately, UConn's defense is proportioned differently than Cincy's - they are tough against the pass and soft against the run. A healthy White and resurgent Slaton should have a field day.

The Matrix - WVU by 14.5, 38.8% against the line

Game 3. Arkansas @ LSU
LSU is the better team and Arkansas is quickly becoming headless. But LSU gave up over 400 yards last week against an inferior opponent. McFadden could have a field day - though he won't be as effective without Felix Jones mixing things up.

The Matrix - LSU by 13.4, 53% against the line

Game 4. Tennessee @ Kentucky
If Tennessee loses this game, LSU will have to play Georgia to get into the national championship game. Kentucky needs to win to finish .500 in conference, after a season that started so promisingly. Tennessee will need to run the ball effectively against a weak Kentucky run defense, and then get enough stops to come out on top. These two teams have been inconsistent, and it is impossible to know which version will show up.

The Matrix - Kentucky by 5.2, 55.7 against the line

Game 5. Boise State @ Hawaii
This game is essentially the championship game for the weak of schedule. To their credit, they have won when they needed to and, at times, won by a lot. But offensively and defensively, only Hawaii's pass offense finds itself in the top 25 nationally - beyond that, the two teams are average. The Matrix does not include a "Hawaii is a really long ways away" adjustment factor, so you might want to mentally add 7 points to its estimate

The Matrix - Hawaii by 1.8, 42% against the line

Game 6. Texas @ Texas A&M
This game is somewhat similar to the game last year. If Texas wins they might be playing for the Big 12 title (if Oklahoma State can beat Oklahoma). Texas plays tough run defense - as good as any - and A&M needs to run the ball because they're 94th in pass efficiency. Last year, A&M rushed for over 300 yards and didn't attempt a pass on the 80-yard game winning drive. The last time Texas went to College Station, Stephen McGee almost beat Vince Young in a surprise start.

The Matrix - Texas by 1.9, 40.3% against the line

Game 7. Utah @ BYU
Not nationally important, but it is the Holy War. Few realize it, but Utah's pass defense has been as effective as any - more efficient than the Bayou Bengals. BYU is 12th in the nation in passing yards per game. BYU needs to win this game or next week to clinch another MWC title. The possibility that this game will be half as exciting as last year gives me tingles.

The Matrix - BYU by 3.2, 46.6% against the line

Game 8. Alabama @ Auburn
Alabama is trying to recover from a "catastrophe". They were probably looking forward to this game, and everyone else in Alabama was as well. Auburn has a better team, and I'm still waiting for Saban to perform those promised miracles.

The Matrix - Auburn by 7.7, 55% against the line

It looks like it should be a quality Thanksgiving weekend.

Click Here for Week 13 Picks and Odds

Week 11 Predictions

See Week 11 Predictions
See Week 11 Rankings

Last week, the Matrix was 5-0 picking winners in the spotlighted games, but 1-4 against the spread (despite being 27-21 against the spread for the week across all games).

Before getting to the games, I made a couple of minor changes to fix some glitches. The big change is the Navy factor. Basically, the formula from last week gave equal weight across all teams for their pass and run efficiencies. Navy, though, scores high in pass efficiency but doesn’t win games that way. So, I’ve added a factor to weight efficiencies based on the relative importance for that team’s offense.

Now the picks.

Game 1. (18) Auburn @ (10) Georgia

Auburn has lost 3 games by a total of 14 points, including a losses to a former #2 (South Florida) and the current #2, but also managed to lose to Mississippi State. Georgia lost one game by 21 to an inferior Tennessee (though definitely not inferior on that night). Georgia has only 1 quality win (at Florida) and a semi-quality win (at Alabama). Auburn’s record looks similar (at Florida and at Arkansas). Now both teams seem to be hot and it should be a solid, defensive game. The SEC can be a little difficult to figure out, and the line-setters and the Matrix seem to be seeing it that way as well. But Georgia needs to cover and then some at home to convince me they deserve to be 10^th with two losses.

The Matrix: Georgia by ½ a point

Game 2. (17) USC @ Cal

A month ago this was set to be the big showdown in the PAC 10. Well, it turns out the big showdown already took place last week in Eugene, but this game will still throw a lot of talent on the field. Surprisingly, the two teams are only 36^th and 39^th in the nation in scoring despite having tons of talent. Cal’s offensive production has fallen every game since scoring 45 against a relatively tough Arizona defense. USC, on the other hand, played Oregon tough two weeks ago, clobbered Notre Dame’s JV team, and beat Oregon State handily last week. Unless Cal turns it around, USC should win in style but, at home, Cal has the talent to compete.

The Matrix: USC by ½ a point

Game 3. Illinois @ (1) Ohio State

My gut tells me that Ohio State better watch out for this game, but I can’t find any statistic to support that inclination. Illinois has lost some steam recently since its big win over Wisconsin. We can be confident that Juice won’t get much done in the air, but, if he can stretch the field a little, just might be able to pound out some points on the ground – against the nation’s second best run defense. Unfortunately for the Fighting Illini, Ohio State will have a much easier time scoring points. If Wells gets going, Ohio State could cover easily.

The Matrix: Ohio State by 20

Game 4. (4) Kansas @ Oklahoma State

Here’s why this game is important – Kansas is still undefeated. If Kansas wins out, it would have a portfolio that includes wins on the road and at a neutral field against top ten teams. That being the case, I think you have to put them in the national championship game, even if that means hopping them over one loss Oregon and LSU. But first it must beat the Cowboys. Kansas proved last week it could score points, and they will need to put up 35+ on Saturday if they want to win.

The Matrix: Kansas by 12

Game 5. Texas Tech @ (14) Texas

Texas Tech is 1^st in passing yards and 118^th in rushing yards, almost dead last in the nation. This isn’t new turf for Tech, but its still fun to watch. I still hold that Texas is over-rated this season, and I think Tech will show the world I’m right on Saturday. To come to the point, Harrell is a lot better than McCoy and the outcome will reflect that. The Matrix actually rates Tech higher than Texas, but gives the Longhorns a 3 point advantage at home.

The Matrix: Texas by 3

Pick of the Week:

Somehow, Iowa State has ended up on the other end of the Matrix’s pick of the week again. Colorado has a 74% of covering a five point line at Iowa State. We’ll see.

See Week 11 Predictions

Week 10 Recap and the Field Goal Calculator

With one game left this weekend, I thought it was about time to report on the initial results from the Matrix's first weekend. All in all, things have gone well. The Matrix correctly picked the winner in 38 of 53 games and was 27-21 against the line.

And it could have been better. If you look back at the picks (table) from last week, you might notice that Oregon is listed as the road team against Arizona State. Unless Arizona State has decided to start playing its home games thousands of miles from home, this is a typo. The Matrix gives teams a bonus if they are playing at home, and, in this case, gave Oregon's "at-home" credit to Arizona State. This mistake shifted the prediction, in this case, by about nine points. In other words, if the Matrix would have been fed accurate data, it would have been correct.

Then there is Rice and Texas. After ragging on these two teams last week, they put up a combined 52 points in the 4th quarter to win and cover the spread. Cincinnati put up 31 in the 1st quarter to do the same. And then the Demon Deacons felt the Cavalier curse and missed what would have been the winning field goal in the last seconds.

But I found a more worrying issue when I looked more closely at the results from the Matrix. Against the line, the Matrix was 0-2 when it gave one team an 80% chance or greater of covering. One, which I mentioned before, was Rice and their 20 point comeback. The other was Iowa State, who seems to actually be a much better team these days. The Matrix was most accurate when it gave one team only a small advantage.

The game of the week, in my opinion, lived up to its billing (that I gave it). Navy wins in triple overtime on a failed two point conversion attempt. Historic. I'm a bit biased towards the midshipmen - I love to watch their offense - but how could anyone that isn't a Catholic not jump on the Navy bandwagon after that game.

The Field Goal Calculator

The field goal calculator is my initial attempt to create an adjustable system that can estimate the number of points that a team will get on average if they kick a field goal or go for it on 4th down. The calculations come from an earlier blog and are not, by any means, perfect, but I think it is a good starting point.

Here, I have provided an excel spreadsheet so users can play with it themselves. The spreadsheet has 4 entries and a graph. You can adjust it for the leg strength of the kicker (average = 0), the accuracy of the kicker (average = 0), the average yards per play for that team, and the number of yards the team needs to get a first down. The graph shows how many points that team could expect to get if they went for it or if they kicked the field goal from various points on the field.

Download Field Goal Calculator.xls

The Matrix - Week 10 Predictions

I feel like I've got some really interesting numbers on my last blog, and suggest that visitors give it a look, but I'm pretty stoked about this blog, too. This week I am presenting the Matrix, the culmination of my experiment into college football prediction models (plus whatever refinements I might want to make later).

A quick overview of the matrix. It uses two general ratings--play throughout the season and play weighted by the last games. To find the best ratings, I use an automated trial and error system that runs the teams through the season a few hundred times to find the best fit. I then adjust these two ratings for match ups in the game--offensive and defensive play against the run and pass and home field advantage.

Before we get to this week's picks, I want to quickly review my picks from last week. I finished the day 2-3, but to my credit, Boston College did not deserve to win. Morelli proved me right in Happy Valley, and Sanchez showed that USC's problems go much deeper than the play of the quarterback. I still have a hard time believing the PAC 10 is any good with Arizona State undefeated and Oregon in second (after the beat down they got last year in the Holiday Bowl). If USC is having an off year, the entire PAC 10 drops a few rungs in my opinion.

Now with a few notable picks (in a less exciting week).

Game 1. LSU @ Alabama
The only reason the spread is under 10 is that the game is at Alabama and people are waiting anxiously for Saban to perform some wonder. Keep waiting. I've heard this talk that Nick will bring his A game against his old team - but the coach doesn't play and has players don't have much of an A game. The hard hitting, low scoring game (both teams will complete less than 60% of their passes) will appear closer than it really was.

The Matrix:
LSU by 13 points, 66% of covering a -7.5 point spread

Game 2. Oregon @ Arizona State
It's disappointing to think that the Ducks, after franchise-establishing wins at Michigan and against USC could fall to the Sun Devils and out of national championship contention. It is harder to believe that Arizona State is actually good. I've heard that Oregon has "far and away the best offense in the country." That's a bunch of bologna, but they'll still win this one.

The Matrix:
Oregon by less than a point (51% chance of winning), 31% chance against the 7 point spread

Game 3. Rutgers @ Connecticut
I ragged on Connecticut last week and they proved me wrong. Rutgers' performance, on the other hand, made me look like a prophet. The Matrix favors Rutgers in every statistical category it measures but the score.

The Matrix:
Connecticut by 2.2 (57% chance of winning), toss up against the spread (-2)

Game 4. Wisconsin @ Ohio State
Ohio State will beat up on another very weak Big 10 opponent. The Ohio State University might have a legitimately good team, but the rest of the Big 10 is soft. I understand the South when they moan about a lack of balance in college football - if BC and the OSU play for the national championship at the end of the season, I don't see any good reason to recognize the winner as the best team in the country. In my opinion, if national championship game does not include West Virginia or LSU (both teams that lost only once, on the road, against more talented teams than any that BC and Ohio State play all year), or if it includes any team other than those two, Oregon or Ohio State, I won't bother to watch. But Ohio State, with powerful wins over Akron and Kent State, which is better known for a shooting than football, has played well this season.

The Matrix:
Ohio State by 23 (94% chance of winning), 70% chance against the spread (-15.5)

Game 5. Texas A&M @ Oklahoma
Its a bad week for college football and I could only find 4 games of real importance, so I picked the 5th game as a homer. Stat of the game--the Matrix sees Oklahoma holding the Aggies to 3 yards per carry. I'd like to console myself by saying that A&M was only one stupid call away from beating Oklahoma last year, but the same coach that made that same stupid call (to kick the field goal) made the same stupid call last week against Kansas and seems, in fact, to be perfecting the art of stupid calls.

The Matrix:
Oklahoma by 20 (92% chance of winning), 47% chance against the spread (-21)

The most interesting game this week is Navy at Notre Dame. The Midshipmen haven't pulled out a win in a little less than a half-century (1963, I believe), but this year they get to play the JV. Navy is favored by 3.5, the Matrix gives them less than a point, but my gut tells me it won't be that close. Navy's run attack is good enough to put up points against anyone, and Notre Dame's offense is bad enough to stop themselves on an empty field.

Picks of the week:
I'm not a gambler, and I don't suggest it personally, but I do like outsmarting the folks in Vegas, so I present three games where the Matrix believes they are off the mark.

Illinois is favored by 12 and still the Matrix gives them a 72% chance of covering at Minnesota. Not only do the Gophers have an appallingly bad defense, their offense isn't half as good as the Big 10 likes to believe it is - but they did manage 21 against the might Bison of North Dakota State.

UTEP is favored by 7 at Rice, but they'll win by more than 15, 70% chance of covering. Even Texas, that has struggled against almost everyone this season (including powerhouses like Arkansas State and UCF), blew out Rice.

Iowa State has played tougher in recent weeks against Missouri and, especially, Oklahoma, but they are still one of the worst teams in FBS. Kansas State will cover the 14 point spread and win by 30+, 90% chance against the spread. Need I mention that Iowa State is the only other team against which Texas has looked competent.

Click the image below to see the rest of the picks. Rankings based on the matrix will be released starting next week.

CSV file

Sortable Table