If TCU played in the Pac-10

Given the existing system, I have no beef with Oregon and Auburn playing for the national championship while TCU is left outs. But I do have a beef with a system that cannot consider an undefeated team with TCU's resume.* 

The difference between TCU and the two national title contenders is schedule strength - all three teams finished their regular seasons (plus conference championship game for Auburn) undefeated. TCU tore through its softer schedule, but would the Frogs have done against a tougher schedule - say, Oregon's schedule?

While we can't actually play the games, I've developed statistical techniques over the last several years to simulate games and seasons. We cannot know exactly what would happen without actually playing the games - anyone who tells you different is lying, ignorant, or both. But I can tell you, with a high degree of confidence, how likely it is that certain things happen. 

Without getting into the nitty gritty (you can find more detail here), the system simulates a team's performance against another team's schedule, adjusting for the different strengths and weaknesses of the teams, the location of the game, the sequence of games (team's play less well on average the week after a big game), etc.

TCU if facing Oregon's 2010 schedule:

TCU-Opp    [Odds]
60.3 - 3.0     [100%]  vs New Mexico
36.6 - 13.7  [94.6%]  @ Tennessee
61.1 - 3 .0   [100%]   vs Portland St.
36.4 - 15.9  [93.2%]  @ Arizona St.
31.3 - 27.6  [61.4%]  vs Stanford
42.4 - 11.5  [97.9%]  @ Washington St.
41.1 - 7.1    [98.6%]  vs UCLA
32.9 - 22.3  [78.2%]  @ USC
43.8 - 10.4  [98.5%]  vs Washington
29.1 - 13.4  [87.1%]  @ California
36.2 - 16.3  [92.7%]  vs Arizona
35.9 - 15.8  [92.2%]  @ Oregon St.

The toughest games would come against Stanford (61.4% chance of winning) and USC (78.2%), but TCU would have a better than 50% chance of winning every game on the schedule. All-in-all, TCU would have a 30.0% chance of finishing the season 12-0 and earning a spot in the title game. The Frogs would still need a few breaks, but 30% is much better than the real odds they had of playing for a national championship - zero. If TCU were to play through Oregon's schedule 1,000 times, we could expect them to win 10.9 on average.

                     TCU    Oregon
Undefeated   30.0%   63.7%
Exp. Wins      10.9      11.6

Oregon may be the better team - and my statistical model suggests they are - but if the two were to switch schedules, there is a good chance that TCU would be getting ready for a national championship game and Oregon would be celebrating a tough win the in Rose Bowl.

*Please feel free to learn more about the One Win Away proposition - the only logical solution to the college football national championship conundrum - here.

This Season's OWA Rankings

Earlier this month I laid out the logic of the One Win Away approach to the college football post-season. Tournaments are great for giving every deserving team a chance, but tournaments can weaken the regular season by admitting undeserving teams. The One Win Away approach is the perfect balance - only deserving teams are admitted into the season-ending tournament. Deserving teams are those that, if they were to beat the top-ranked team in a head-to-head, would then be ranked higher than that team - e.g. if Oregon beat Auburn, Oregon would then be ranked higher than Auburn. Therefore, by deduction, the team that wins the OWA tournament is also the team that had the strongest overall season. With the OWA approach, the size of the field will vary from year to year depending on the number of deserving teams, but there will typically be between 2 and 6 entrants.

I also suggested that the OWA field be selected using the BPR. Below is an analysis of this year's results and the OWA participants. The left column is the BPR rating, the right column is the OWA rating - the rating if the team were to beat Auburn. To qualify, a team's OWA rating must be higher than Auburn's OWA- rating in parentheses (Auburn's rating if it were to lose an additional game). Four teams would make the field this season - Auburn, Oregon, TCU, and Stanford. We would then have a 4 team tournament, with Auburn getting Stanford and Oregon getting TCU is the semi-finals. The WAC and Big 10 one loss teams might feel a little peeved for getting left out, but even with a win over Auburn they would still have faced a much softer schedule and have the same number of losses - admitting them into the OWA field would erase that.

College Football 2008

Now that the season's over, it's time to review and rank.

The Matrix offers us rankings based on three basic ideas-efficiency, performance, and win/loss record. Efficiency is based on yards per play. the efficiency ratings presented here are adjusted for the strength of a team's competition and weighted appropriately. Performance is a team's capacity to score or prevent the scoring of points. Finally, the Elo rating is based exclusively on the win/loss record of a team and of its opponents. I use a hybrid rating that combines these three to rank all 120 D-IA college football teams.

Florida comes in at #1. USC, Oklahoma, Texas and Penn State fill out the top 5. Utah and TCU then represent the MWC at 6 and 7 despite having weak schedules (71 and 55, respectively).

Oklahoma scores the nation's best offense (with Florida coming in second) and USC the nation's best defense (TCU at number 2). Oklahoma had the best passing offense and Oregon the most effective run offense (just ask Oklahoma State about that offense).

Oklahoma also had the toughest schedule (playing in the Big 12 and national championship games bulked a schedule that already included the rest of the Big 12 South, TCU and the Big East champ). Washington had the second toughest schedule, but navigated it less well than OU.

The Apple Cup was everythign we thought it would be, including the two worst BCS conference teams in the country. Despite winning the game, Washington State still managed to wrestle the title of worst BCS conference team from Washington.

But is was a team in Texas that wrote the book on futility. North Texas had the nation's worst defense (again) and a really bad offense measured both in terms of scoring and efficiency.

Bowl Results

Things were going very well until I went 0 for 4 the last four bowl games. Still, the Matrix was 53% against the spread. It correctly predicted 67% of winners, which isn't too impressive until you recognize that the Vegas line only picked the winner 53% of the time. At times, the Matrix seemed prophetic, picking Utah over Alabama and hitting the Boise State/TCU game on the nose. But then it estimated that Oregon State and Pitt would combine for 56 points. All in all, it was a topsy turvy bowl season, but the Matrix weathered it relatively well.

Games to Watch: Week 5

Had I written this a bit earlier, I wouldn't have included USC at Oregon State. But now I know--if you haven't seen this game yet, to to ESPN360 right now and watch it. You'll learn couple of important things:

1) This wasn't one of those "the better team played crappy and turned the ball over 18 times and lost." Oregon State exposed weaknesses on the USC defensive line and gave defensive coordinators some very good ideas for slowing the Trojan offense down in future weeks.

2) The Rodgers brother are really, really good; Jacquizz was the best player on the field Thursday night.

3) USC has serious problems with injuries. Sanchez's knee is in bad shape and the USC linebacker corp of myth and legend will be lucky to survive through the season.

Alabama (+6.5) at Georgia

Why we care: Alabama and Georgia have gotten to this point by soundly beating the two most over-rated teams in college football (Clemson and Arizona State).

What to watch for: Line play. Georgia is better at every other position on the field, but Alabama is stronger on the lines. Alabama was in this situation earlier in the season and ambushed Clemson. Also watch WR's Julio Jones and AJ Green. Not only are they incredible talents and potential playmakers, but if they do produce they can add that second dimension to their teams and make them many times more explosive.

Misc: If wearing a black uni makes you play harder, you're not really a man. PS-I don't like Nick Saban.

Pick: Alabama by 3

Illinois (+15.5) at Penn State

Why we care: The winner, especially if its Penn State, could be taking their first big step towards getting blown out by USC in the Rose Bowl.

What to watch for: Penn State has a ton of talent on offense, but the defense hasn't been challenged yet. Can Joe Pa's boys contain Juice and Co.?

Misc: No one benefitted more than Penn State from Oregon State's win over USC. Not only does it open one more door towards a shot at the title, but it gives Penn State's 45-14 Beaver beatdown a lot more legitimacy as a meaningful win.

Pick: Penn State by 10

TCU (+18) at Oklahoma

Why we care: OU is the interim #1. If TCU wins this game, we might see a strong put to include a MWC team in the championship game at season's end.

What to watch for: OU has score 57, 52 and 55 while TCU is giving up 7 points a game. Something's got to give--and the giving will be decided at the line of scrimmage. TCU has a legitimately good defense, but they don't have the size to match up on the line against OU's All-American OL. If the DL can free up the linebackers and put some pressure on Bradford this game could get very interesting. If not (the more likely scenario), OU will cover.

Misc: If the new Big XII had brought in TCU instead of Baylor, 1) the Big XII South would be the best division in the history of college football, and 2) this game would be every bit as important as the Alabama/Georgia game.

Pick: OU by 14

Quick Note: Week 4 Results

1) The BYU Defense-BYU has not allowed a point in two complete games now. The last points against the Cougars were score by Jake Locker and, notably, not Washington's kicker. Inexperience and lack of depth on defense were supposed to be BYU's achille's heel when the season kicked off, but the Y has pitched shoutouts even when they've thrown out the scout team in big blowouts. They aren't Auburn or anything, but as Wyoming's Devin Moore put it, "They were a little faster than I though they were."

2) Auburn/LSU-I don't care what SEC backers say, beating Mississippi State 3-2 is not a good thing, and Auburn finally got a small taste of comeuppance. This was a tight game between two very evenly matched teams that was essential decided by two injuries. The first injury was that inflicted by LSU's Andrew Hatch. QB Jarrett Lee's performance in the first half had been so bad that he was not going to see the field again--until Hatch was knocked unconscious. Then, all of a sudden, Jarrett Lee was back in the spotlight and he couldn't screw up if he tried. Auburn also suffered some breakdowns in the secondary and, for the first time in the game, LSU was able to make them pay.

The second big injury was suffered by Auburn's RB Brad Lester. Ben Tate was going to get most of the carries anyway, but the change of pace between the two was beginning to give LSU some headaches. And as time was running down, Lester could have been used out of the backfield to add a little unpredictability to an otherwise painfully predictable offense.

3) South Florida-the Bulls need to drop a few spots. Beating Kansas was a nice, but needing a big comeback at home-against a team that looks more like a 20-30 type team instead of the top 10 team of last year-does not merit a sub-teen ranking. And now that they have struggled against both UCF and FIU, they are getting no love from me. But, of course, since they play in the Big East, which might not be as good as the MWC from top to bottom this season, they'll probably finish the season with two losses and a trip to a BCS bowl.

4) One fifth of the top 25 is currently held by the MWC and the WAC. These five teams have gone a combined 17-1 over a schedule that has included Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Rutgers, Michigan and Wisconsin, not to mention in-conference foes (and teams that went bowling a year ago) in New Mexico and Air Force. The MWC teams will beat each other up a little, and TCU has a tough task ahead in going to Oklahoma, but if one the three survives the ringer, Boise State or Fresno State wins and Tulsa continues its winning ways, we could be on path to a major BCS logjam.

MWC 2008 Preview

It could be a big season for the Mountain West. BYU has received most of the publicity so far, but a different storyline might emerge as being more significant by season’s end, especially if BYU falters in conference play.

Here are my big questions for the MWC:

1) Can BYU succeed in its “quest for perfection”?
a. Who will win in Salt Lake during Thanksgiving weekend?
2) How many BCS teams will fall to MWC opponents this season?
3) What is the MWC’s BCS future?

1) 2006 was one of BYU’s more productive seasons and, unfortunately, more attractive draft classes. The defense, which was sufficient in 2006, was still in tact in 2007, but the offense was in rebuilding mode last year. The beginning of the season was rough, but the Cougars were able to take advantage of Ute injuries and Horn Frog off-the-field challenges to slide into another conference championship. BYU was rarely the conference’s best team at any particular point in the season—they were just the best team on the field at the time they were playing.

(Performance and Reputation ratings are explained here and here)

This year’s team is still riding the laurels of that 2006 team which has now been completely stripped on both sides of the ball. The offense should be competent, but not explosive, and the defense is full of question marks. The Cougars should win, but might lose, non-conference games against Washington and UCLA and road games at TCU and Air Force. If they are still without blemish come Thanksgiving, though, another Holy War classic could be in the making.

Utah outperformed BYU most of last season (even when they were on the same field), but struggled with injuries and inconsistency. They will again field a very competitive team this year and will be wanting revenge after two heartbreaking Holy War losses in consecutive years (2006, 2007). Best case scenario for BYU, this game is a toss-up.

I give BYU a 12% chance of running the table in the regular season, which are better odds than any team not coached by Pete Carroll. That gives them a 12% chance of crashing the BCS party this season.

2) What do Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Iowa State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon State, Stanford, Texas A&M, UCLA, and Washington all have in common? First, they are all in BCS conferences (or, in ND’s case, have special BCS arrangements). Second, they all run the risk of losing regular season games to MWC opponents.

The teams most at risk of losing are UCLA (@ BYU), Arizona (@ New Mexico), Stanford (@ TCU), Washington (vs. BYU), Iowa St. (@ UNLV), and Oregon St. (@ Utah). Other games on the list would be upsets, but few of them are out of reach. If MWC teams could knock off a few other big names on the list—Utah @ Michigan would be huge and TCU @ Oklahoma and San Diego State @ Notre Dame (which is mildly possible if Weiss decides to field another 4 win team) would also be big—the MWC could see its price rise quickly. If BYU heads the way and wins a BCS bowl game, this conference and the WAC might be raising their voices against the current system.

3) This brings me to the MWC and WAC BCS futures. The two conferences have produced BCS teams three of the last four years and could be sending a fourth in five. And they have a much better winning percentage in BCS bowl games than, for example, OU.

I propose that, if the two conferences have respectful seasons this year, the MWC and WAC bid to lock up a BCS spot for a bi-conference champion. The champions of the two conferences meet for a bi-conference championship game during the same weekend that the Big XII, SEC and ACC are having their conference championship games. There is no doubt in my mind that these two conferences could consistently produce a team as competitive as some of those sent to represent the Big East and ACC in years past—and even the Big XII just two year ago.

Bowl Picks 2

Hawaii Bowl. Boise State vs. East Carolina

The talk of the town is that Boise State will have a letdown in this game and started slowly after the BCS miracle last season. Obviously, these people have never been to Boise or played in the WAC. East Carolina's trips to Virginia Tech and West Virginia received much more national attention than any game Boise State has played in this season (including at Hawaii). The Pirates' Chris Johnson is a stud, averaging an opponent-adjusted 5 yards per carry, but Boise State is definitely the better team in this game.

The Matrix - Boise State by 8.8, 46.3% against the spread

Motor City Bowl. Central Michigan vs. Purdue

What a miserable bowl to be forced to play in - how can you recruit to a school where a conference championship and decent season is capped off with a trip to Detroit in late December? Central Michigan has played three BCS conference teams this years, losing by 45, 23 and 56 points. If there is greater parity in college football, it ain't coming from the MAC. We may expect a different outcome this time from the previous meeting (when Purdue won by 23) after the dismissal of Lymon, but losing an athlete for conduct detrimental is not as bad as losing a leader to injury and, in some cases, can be a real blessing if his conduct was really detrimental. The critical point is that Central Michigan plays poor pass D (114th in the nation according to the Matrix) and Purdue will throw the ball 40 to 50 times.

The Matrix - Purdue by 6, 42% against the spread

Holiday Bowl. Arizona St. vs. Texas

These are two teams that, in my opinion, are meeting at a crossroads as they move in opposite directions. Two years ago from now, Texas had one of the best college football teams the world has ever known. Arizona St was struggling on the bowl eligibility bubble. Texas is losing more recruiting battles to LSU, OU, A&M, OSU, and even Tech (but not Baylor), has placed too many athletes in Austin's prisons recently, and has lost its last 3 games against rivals A&M and OU. Texas is still among the toughest against the run, but ASU has the better overall opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency and won't be all that interested in running the ball anyway.

The Matrix - ASU by 2.5, 61.8% against the spread

Champs Sports Bowl. Michigan St. vs. Boston College

Where the Purdue/Central Michigan game is a no win situation for the Big 10 - no one's impressed when you beat the Chippewa's - the Spartans could knock off BC, the ACC runner-up and former national title contender, and win back some Big 10 pride. Don't believe the hype about Ryan and BC's efficient offense - Michigan St is more efficient on the ground and in the air than the Eagles. Michigan State could pull off the upset in a shootout.

The Matrix - Boston College by 5.3, 55.9% against the spread

Texas Bowl. TCU vs. Houston

Who's going to get excited about this game? Houston doesn't have fans and TCU fans were expecting a BCS bowl berth when the season kicked-off. Houston is headless and TCU has been stumbling around all season. When Houston has the ball, we will be seeing a top 20 offense against a top 20 defense and should be, for college football fans, fun to watch.

The Matrix - TCU by 4.8, 54.3% against the spread

Emerald Bowl. Maryland vs. Oregon State

It's been a tough year for the Terps. After losing half the starting roster and losing to North Carolina, Maryland needed 2 wins in 3 games to go bowling - and beat Boston College and North Carolina State (37-0) to punch their ticket. Oregon St. has had the nation's most efficient run defense and Friedgen needs to run the ball to take pressure off of Turner.

The Matrix - Oregon St by 5.8, 53.2% against the spread