Testing Matchup Myth #1: the Rematch

Myth #1: It's hard to beat the same team twice in one season
Myth #2: You can throw out the records for a rivalry game

In this first edition of the two part series, I will be taking on myth #1.

Billy Sims and the Sooners would
get revenge and redemption

The principal idea seems to be that the winner of the first game has less to prove in round 2, is overconfident entering the game, and therefore does not prepare as well or play as hard. The game 1 loser is looking for revenge or redemption.

In modern-era college football, teams play a second time in a bowl game or conference championship game. This is important for two reasons: first, it means that the teams are relatively evenly matched; second, it means that there is a whole new set of motivational variables (e.g. if the team is happy or disappointed to be in that particular bowl game) that will dilute the importance of seeking revenge or redemption for the loser.

There is a second countervailing logic: the winner of the first game already divined a game plan that wins. The loser will need to reevaluate its game plan, and faces a degree of uncertainty that the game plan will be effective. In other words, if the two teams are otherwise evenly matched, the team that won the first game has a better chance of winning the second game precisely because it won the first game.

The Choke at Doak: 31-3 to 31-31; The 5th quarter
in the French Quarter was no better for Florida

So, let's look at the numbers. Since 1950, there have been 49 rematches in college football. (Florida State tied in game 1 in 1994 - the infamous Choke at Doak.) The average score in game 1 has been 29.5-16.4, and in game 2, 31.0-17.7. Home teams were 31-16-1 in game 1. Most game 2s were played on neutral fields; home teams were only 4-6.

Game 1 winners were 29-18 in second games (62%). Simplistically, 62% is less than 100%, so game 1 losers did better in game 2, but 62% is also more than 50%, so game 1 winners were still more likely to win game 2.

Thinking about this logically, the team that won the first game was probably the better team, and so we would expect them to win the second game more often than not. Based on their performance throughout the season, we would have expected game 1 winners to win 61% of game 2s. In reality, they won 62%. In other words, game 1 winners improved their chances of winning the rematch by 1 percentage point.

BYU/UCLA 2007

On average, game 1 winners won the rematch 26.4 to 22.5. We would have expected game 1 winners to win 26.6 to 22.0 on average. That means game 1 losers outplayed game 2 expectations by .79 points. Based on game 2 scores and a pythagorean-style win/loss adjustment, game 1 losers should have won 45% of game 2s, but they only won 38%. Game 2 losers played slightly better by the scoreboard, but they were unlucky when it came to actually winning games.

In conclusion, it is not hard to beat a team twice in the same season - winning or losing game 1 has no effect on winning or losing game 2. But it is hard to blow a team out twice in the same season. So Nebraska/Washington Part II might be closer than 55-21, but don't expect Washington to pull off the upset just because they lost the first time around.

This week's games: UCLA at Tennessee

The Tenessee v. Pac-10 games in the past have been a lot of fun in the past, but not in the "boy, that was a good game" way. The two conferences generally have clashing styles which force coaches to make interesting pre and in-game tactical decisions. And this game does feature a couple of superstars in the coaching business. Lane Kiffin has now won more than 25% of his games as a head coach so he's really got the folks in Knoxville excited. Rick Neuheisel, who always hits a high point in his first season before running programs into the ground, has already hit rock-bottom at UCLA and so, I presume, can only go up from there. The best thing about college football is that somebody's always got to win.

Quick Note: Week 4 Results

1) The BYU Defense-BYU has not allowed a point in two complete games now. The last points against the Cougars were score by Jake Locker and, notably, not Washington's kicker. Inexperience and lack of depth on defense were supposed to be BYU's achille's heel when the season kicked off, but the Y has pitched shoutouts even when they've thrown out the scout team in big blowouts. They aren't Auburn or anything, but as Wyoming's Devin Moore put it, "They were a little faster than I though they were."

2) Auburn/LSU-I don't care what SEC backers say, beating Mississippi State 3-2 is not a good thing, and Auburn finally got a small taste of comeuppance. This was a tight game between two very evenly matched teams that was essential decided by two injuries. The first injury was that inflicted by LSU's Andrew Hatch. QB Jarrett Lee's performance in the first half had been so bad that he was not going to see the field again--until Hatch was knocked unconscious. Then, all of a sudden, Jarrett Lee was back in the spotlight and he couldn't screw up if he tried. Auburn also suffered some breakdowns in the secondary and, for the first time in the game, LSU was able to make them pay.

The second big injury was suffered by Auburn's RB Brad Lester. Ben Tate was going to get most of the carries anyway, but the change of pace between the two was beginning to give LSU some headaches. And as time was running down, Lester could have been used out of the backfield to add a little unpredictability to an otherwise painfully predictable offense.

3) South Florida-the Bulls need to drop a few spots. Beating Kansas was a nice, but needing a big comeback at home-against a team that looks more like a 20-30 type team instead of the top 10 team of last year-does not merit a sub-teen ranking. And now that they have struggled against both UCF and FIU, they are getting no love from me. But, of course, since they play in the Big East, which might not be as good as the MWC from top to bottom this season, they'll probably finish the season with two losses and a trip to a BCS bowl.

4) One fifth of the top 25 is currently held by the MWC and the WAC. These five teams have gone a combined 17-1 over a schedule that has included Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Rutgers, Michigan and Wisconsin, not to mention in-conference foes (and teams that went bowling a year ago) in New Mexico and Air Force. The MWC teams will beat each other up a little, and TCU has a tough task ahead in going to Oklahoma, but if one the three survives the ringer, Boise State or Fresno State wins and Tulsa continues its winning ways, we could be on path to a major BCS logjam.

Pac 10 2007(8) (P)review

Here' all you really need to know from the Pac 10 last season:







That play still makes me sick to watch. I'm not a Cal fan in any way, but watching Riley make one of the stupidest decisions of his life in front of a national television audience made my stomach churn. But Cal didn't lose that game because the kid made a mistake or because Longshore couldn't stay healthy. They didn't lose that game because they failed to score more than 31 against a very good defensive team (that finished tops in the nation in run D efficiency according to the Matrix) but because they failed to give up less than 28 against a less prolific Beaver offense.



The Pac 10 was given three chances to send a team to the national championship game (SC, Oregon, and Cal) and choked (or blew, as in Dixon's knee) them all away. And not because the scheduling was too difficult--Cal lost 6 of 7 in one of the great all time collapses, Oregon got shutout by UCLA, and USC lost to 41-point-underdog Stanford.

There is one questions for the Pac 10 this season that I think is really important:

1) How many times will USC lose before New Years?

The team with the best shot of getting a W against the Trojans is situated east of the Mississippi (or, at least, I think it's east of the Mississippi but I'll have to check a map). Ohio State is always good and has been better than SEC fans seem to believe. The Bills lost four Super Bowls, but that still was an incredible team. USC gets it at home, though, and should win.



And if they do, they will get the SEC champ in the national championship game if they can avoid losing more than one game in-conference. That means they could even throw one away against UCLA or Stanford and still play for the title.

My prediction of the Pac 10-USC plays for the championship and everyone else is irrelevant.

Bowl Picks 1

For complete bowl picks, find "Bowl Picks" under "Predictions" in the right hand menu.

Poinsettia Bowl. Utah vs. Navy

Utah's tough pass defense kept Max Hall in check and almost helped Utah pull off the upset against BYU in Provo, but that tough pass defense won't be much help against Navy. From the option. Navy leads the nation in rushing yards per game and is 120th (dead last) in D1A in passing yards. Paul Johnson's departure could leave the Midshipmen a little flat, but Niumatalolo will have the offense clicking as always - and I am jittery with anticipation to see what Johnson will be able to do at Georgia Tech. Utah, for their part, is as good as any team in the MWC right now. This may be the most interesting game left in 2007 - Navy is always fun. Expect Navy to score 30 to 40 points and Utah to score a field goal and a touchdown more.

The Matrix - Utah by 8.1, 48.2% against the spread

New Orleans Bowl. Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic

I've heard this called the least interesting bowl game of the bowl season. They are coming out of weak conferences with 5 losses a piece, and that does not get me excited. On the other hand, both teams can throw the ball, and Florida Atlantic has only held three opponents under 30 all season so it could be fun in that respect. I have seen Florida Atlantic twice all season - putting up a fight against Florida (until halftime) and beating Troy, a mid-major that has earned some respect this season. With Schnellenberger at the helm, my money is on FAU.

The Matrix - FAU by 7.1, 64.6% against the spread

PapaJohns.com Bowl. Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati

Maybe its just me, but I think this is a terrible match-up. Cincinnati is a real football team. In their last 4 games, they've beaten then #18 South Florida and #13 UConn, gave West Virginia a scare and beat down Syracuse. Southern Miss, on the other hand, lost 5 games against the 103rd toughest schedule in the country and finished 4th in their division. Their Division! This "bowl" game is nothing more than a really early preseason game as Cincinnati gets ready for next season - but Southern Miss has been as unpredictable as any team this year and just might keep the final margin in single digits.

The Matrix - Cincinnati by 17, 59.6% against the spread

Las Vegas Bowl. BYU vs. UCLA

Passing Yards: BYU 391, UCLA 126. First Downs: BYU 23, UCLA 15. Total Yards: BYU 435, UCLA 236. And BYU lost by 10. Expect the better team to win this time around. A big win here could start BYU's campaign next season for a BCS berth.

The Matrix - BYU by 3.5, 44.9% against the spread

New Mexico Bowl. New Mexico vs. Nevada
I here it is surprisingly inexpensive (relatively speaking of course) to sponsor a bowl, but this is ridiculous. Nevada has been the epitome of the balanced offense that commentators love to talk about, averaging about 250 yards running and passing a game. Their pass efficiency is among the best in the country and their rush efficiency is in the top quintile. They have lost 6 games, but most of these were against tough teams. New Mexico has also been decently tough this season and is essentially playing a home game.

The Matrix - New Mexico by 3, 50% against the spread

Week 12 Rankings

I apologize. It will take a day or two to post the entire rankings. I have switched computers, but I have not yet switched all the software I need. But I do have some rankings this week.

First, The Top 10

1	Oregon	44.1
2	West Virginia	43.1
3	LSU	43.0
4	Kansas	41.5
5	Missouri	41.3
6	Ohio State	41.2
7	Oklahoma	41.1
8	Florida	40.7
9	Arizona State	39.3
10	Virginia Tech	38.4

West Virginia was poised to take the top spot, but played poorly against Louisville and made room for Oregon to slip in without playing a game. LSU could also jump the Mountaineers with an impressive showing in the SEC championship game.

Kansas jumped to #4 after an impressive win against Oklahoma State and Missouri nudged the Buckeyes out of the top 5.

Top 10, BCS variety

1	Kansas	1993
2	Oregon	1883
3	LSU	1879
4	Arizona State	1805
5	Missouri	1786
6	Oklahoma	1768
7	Ohio State	1761
8	Hawaii	1741
9	West Virginia	1697
10	Georgia	1687

This version of the top 10 uses only wins and losses. The big surprise here is that I made one minor modification and Hawaii drops from 3 to 8. Hawaii and Georgia push out Virginia Tech and Florida in this version, and the top spot is grabbed by the Jayhawks (who will belong there if they can win their next three games).

Top 10 Consistency

1	Kansas	4.98
2	Arizona State	5.16
3	Utah State	5.44
4	Florida International	5.61
5	Army	6.31
6	Missouri	6.99
7	Idaho	7.28
8	Fresno State	7.32
9	North Carolina	7.89
10	Hawaii	8.23

A quick note of warning - consistency does not equal good. Army and FIU are not good. Those two, Utah State, and the Vandals of Idaho have each made their way on this list with consistently horrible play. And Kansas finds itself on top of the pack again. Unfortunately for Arizona State fans, they were also consistent when they played Oregon and, very predictably, lost.

Top 10 Inconsistent

1	UCLA	24.55
2	Utah	22.59
3	Central Michigan	21.58
4	Kansas State	20.17
5	Iowa State	20.14
6	UNLV	19.53
7	Nebraska	19.16
8	East Carolina	18.18
9	Kentucky	17.39
10	Marshall	17.30

Again, inconsistency is not necessarily bad (though it won't win you any national championships). Iowa State has squeezed on this list by improving dramatically through the season. UCLA and Utah, on the other hand, have just been completely unpredictable.

Top 10 Hotness

1	Iowa State	0.361
2	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.298
3	Marshall	0.281
4	Illinois	0.260
5	Tulsa	0.215
6	Ohio	0.211
7	Cincinnati	0.205
8	Georgia	0.191
9	Wisconsin	0.178
10	Clemson	0.172

As I mentioned before, Iowa State is playing well. Illinois just shot through the roof in a single game.

Top 10 Coldness

1	Kansas State	-0.421
2	Miami (FL)	-0.314
3	UTEP	-0.265
4	Purdue	-0.218
5	Boston College	-0.205
6	New Mexico State	-0.196
7	Houston	-0.188
8	South Carolina	-0.163
9	UAB	-0.159
10	New Mexico	-0.158

As well as Iowa State has been playing recently, Kansas State has been worse, losing to Iowa State and then losing in embarrassing fashion to the Corn Huskers. I mentioned in an earlier blog, the Clemson/Boston College game is one of teams moving in opposite directions.

Most unexpected winners

	Home	Road	Spread	Score
7	UNLV	Utah	-7.5	27-0
6	Oregon	California	6.5	24-31
5	Middle Tenn	Lo-Lafayette	13.5	24-34
4	Michigan St	Northwestern	14.5	41-48
3	Louisville	Syracuse	37	35-38
2	UCLA	Notre Dame	22	6-20
1	USC	Stanford	41	23-24

I have limited this to winners, because some of the most unexpected outcomes this season were teams that almost won and shouldn't have had a chance - and "almost-upsets", as you learn as a child, aren't horseshoes or hand grenades. The USC/Stanford game was as big of a spread as you will ever see, but Cal beating Oregon has turned out to be a comparably unlikely event. Interestingly, UNLV is the only team to pull off the impossible at home.