An explanation of the Breakdown

The Breakdown is organized in five panes. The first pane offers a basic summary of the performance of the two teams being compared (explanations of the trend-O-meter, Hybrid (2), and cRPI) with national rankings in parentheses. Team ratings and statistical predictions are less reliable before the fifth week of the season.


The second panel provides more detailed information on the team's performance. The unit, pass, and rush ratings are strength-of-schedule adjusted. The bar graphs offer a summary of offensive and defensive match-ups. The portion below zero on each bar is representative of the opposing teams defensive strength in that area. The portion above the bar in the team's color is the predicted yards per run or pass for that team. The gray portion is what the team gains on average. In the title of the graph is percent of plays that the team runs or passes. This information can be used to gauge potential match-up problems. For example, in the case below, USC's relative strength against the run was a match-up advantage for the Trojans-who, then absolutely clobbered Jahvid Best.

Below this panel is a link to another panel with more team statistics.


Pane three is a comparison of the two teams since 1980 (explanations of the Hybrid and cRPI). In this case, the hybrid ratings across seasons are standardized to 1.

Explanation of maps. In the example below, USC is placed relative to Oregon, Eastern Washington, Maryland and Minnesota, Cal's previous opponents. Of those, on offense USC is stylistically most similar to Oregon who score 14 more points that was expected-potentially because Oregon matched up well against the Bears. Because USC is most similar to Oregon (of Cal's previous opponents) and Oregon did exceptionally well, we might expect USC to also have an exceptionally good night-and they did.


Finally, pane 5 summarizes this information to make picks. The Matrix prediction uses performance and match-up data to predict a score and the odds that each team will win. This panel also gives the results of the last six meetings between the teams.

Time for a Change-the MWC and the BCS

I asked at the beginning of the year how many wins the MWC could pull off against BCS conference teams. The answer was 9. They finished 9-5 against the BCS with wins over almost every team in the Pac-10 and traditional powerhouses Michigan and Alabama. And San Diego State, easily the worst team in the conference, almost pulled out a W against the Domers.

If we include Boise State (and the Mountain West should be working hard to net Boise as its 10th team), the MWC+Boise State would have wins over every team in the Pac-10 except Washington State (lack of opportunity), Cal (the only Pac-10 team to pull out a regular season victory against the Mountain West), and USC (lack of opportunity?).

And we should note that Utah beat Alabama not with trick plays or 8 Alabama turnovers, but because they were honestly the better team. All but 3 of Alabama's points came off Utah mistakes. Alabama's offense looked like, well, an SEC offense, racking up 200 yards while giving up 8 sacks. Utah moved the ball in the air and on the ground, picking up first downs from the wildcat formation late in the game. Utah was every bit as athletic as Alabama.

And why is this all important--because Utah won their conference by the hair on their chinny-chin-chins. They cashed in on some powerful karma against both TCU and BYU. The MWC was very good this year,

and that wasn't a fluke.

TCU is structurally advantaged compared to, say, Texas Tech. It's not a big school, but it's in the heart of the most dense football talent in the country, and they have been playing football well for quite some time. The true loyalists might be few in number, but they are rabid about their team (see Miami).

BYU can recruit nationally (and internationally). It is a large school with large numbers in attendance at the games-better than any team in the Big East. The Cougars won a title 25 years ago (more recently than just about every team in any of the major conferences). It has a long, strong tradition of potent offenses that quarterbacks and possession recievers want to be a part of and can now draw in Tongans/Samoans (who, except for Manti Te'o, seem to be criminally ignored by the major recruiting services) using the Mormon connection.

Utah draws on the same Tongan/Samoan population and many of the top notch athletes in the region that are not interested in the lifestyle at BYU. They, like BYU, can also nip players from California. Utah, along with BYU and TCU, have sent many notable athletes to the NFL.

Conclusion-the top three teams of the MWC are more legitimate than the top three teams of the Big East. The bottom six of the MWC are every bit as legitimate as the rest of the Big East. There is no rational explanation why the Big East has an automatic spot and the MWC does not.

I propose two solutions. First, the MWC should steal Boise State. Boise State has been succesful everywhere, regardless of the coach and despite the Mickey Mouse field, and they have a BCS bowl win. That top four has been as successful as the top four in any other conference over the last few years. The MWC could then demand inclusion in the BCS.

Second, the MWC champ and the WAC champ play for the bi-conference championship and an automatic spot in the BCS. I have been championing this idea for years. The conferences do not now have championship games, and there is a natural rivalry between the two. If this had been in practice last year, BYU and not Hawaii would have played Georgia and we would have had a better game. If this had been in practice this year, and Utah had beat Boise State, they would have as legitimate a claim as anyone else to the national championship.

Good Sign/Bad Sign

Pac 10-California Golden Bears [3-1] (beat Colorado State [2-2] 42-7)

Good Sign: The Bears, coming back from an ugly loss to Maryland, won big, beating Colorado State 42-7. More importantly, the win demonstrated a depth of scoring threats at Coach Jeff Tedford’s disposal. The special teams scored two touchdowns, the defense a third, two different quarterbacks threw for touchdowns, and two running backs producing on the ground. Colorado State had more yards in the game, but that is an illusion from Cal missing three offensive possessions.

Bad Sign: Cal has no offensive leadership, again. Riley and Longshore continue to battle for the QB job and Cal’s new superstar, RB Jahvid Best, suffered an ugly knee injury that will slow him down if it doesn’t sideline the speedster. Cal’s offense is not sturdy enough to consistently win in the Pac 10 and looks like it will crumble if they are ever hit hard in the mouth early.

Big 10-Michigan State Spartans [4-1] (beat Indiana [2-2] 42-29)

Good Sign: Indiana stacked the line on defense in an effort to stop RB Jevon Ringer. Ringer still ran for almost 200 yards on just less than 5 yards per carry and QB Hoyer threw for 261 yards on just 14 completions.

Bad Sign: Much like the Notre Dame game, Michigan State showed an inability to put a struggling opponent away. Brian Hoyer is completing less than 50% of his passes. When you need to protect and extend a lead, coaches need more completions in the passing game to move the chains and keep the clock running. As Michigan showed against Wisconsin this weekend, against teams with the personnel to stack it up against the run game, you need to have a consistent passing game to soften up the safeties and linebackers. Michigan State doesn’t have that.

Independent-Navy Midshipmen [3-2] (beat Wake Forest [3-1] 24-17)

Good Sign: Given the chance, they beat a team that was then the top dog in the ACC. The Midshipmen rushed out to a 17-0 lead and then were able to hold while rushing for almost 300 yards against a stiff defense.

Bad Sign: Wake Forest had 6 turnovers. Beating Wake when they turn the ball over 6 times is like beating Florida without Tim Tebow or beating Nebraska in the 21^st century.

Big East-South Florida Bulls [5-0] (beat NC State [2-3] 41-10)

Good Sign: USF finally dominated an opponent not named Tennessee-Martin. Grothe was 20 for 29 and the Bulls rushed for 245 yards.

Bad Sign: NC State is really that bad. South Florida is going to need to develop a real running back and consistently dominate opponents through the rest of the season to garner much respect.

Pac 10 2007(8) (P)review

Here' all you really need to know from the Pac 10 last season:







That play still makes me sick to watch. I'm not a Cal fan in any way, but watching Riley make one of the stupidest decisions of his life in front of a national television audience made my stomach churn. But Cal didn't lose that game because the kid made a mistake or because Longshore couldn't stay healthy. They didn't lose that game because they failed to score more than 31 against a very good defensive team (that finished tops in the nation in run D efficiency according to the Matrix) but because they failed to give up less than 28 against a less prolific Beaver offense.



The Pac 10 was given three chances to send a team to the national championship game (SC, Oregon, and Cal) and choked (or blew, as in Dixon's knee) them all away. And not because the scheduling was too difficult--Cal lost 6 of 7 in one of the great all time collapses, Oregon got shutout by UCLA, and USC lost to 41-point-underdog Stanford.

There is one questions for the Pac 10 this season that I think is really important:

1) How many times will USC lose before New Years?

The team with the best shot of getting a W against the Trojans is situated east of the Mississippi (or, at least, I think it's east of the Mississippi but I'll have to check a map). Ohio State is always good and has been better than SEC fans seem to believe. The Bills lost four Super Bowls, but that still was an incredible team. USC gets it at home, though, and should win.



And if they do, they will get the SEC champ in the national championship game if they can avoid losing more than one game in-conference. That means they could even throw one away against UCLA or Stanford and still play for the title.

My prediction of the Pac 10-USC plays for the championship and everyone else is irrelevant.

Week 11 Predictions

See Week 11 Predictions
See Week 11 Rankings

Last week, the Matrix was 5-0 picking winners in the spotlighted games, but 1-4 against the spread (despite being 27-21 against the spread for the week across all games).

Before getting to the games, I made a couple of minor changes to fix some glitches. The big change is the Navy factor. Basically, the formula from last week gave equal weight across all teams for their pass and run efficiencies. Navy, though, scores high in pass efficiency but doesn’t win games that way. So, I’ve added a factor to weight efficiencies based on the relative importance for that team’s offense.

Now the picks.

Game 1. (18) Auburn @ (10) Georgia

Auburn has lost 3 games by a total of 14 points, including a losses to a former #2 (South Florida) and the current #2, but also managed to lose to Mississippi State. Georgia lost one game by 21 to an inferior Tennessee (though definitely not inferior on that night). Georgia has only 1 quality win (at Florida) and a semi-quality win (at Alabama). Auburn’s record looks similar (at Florida and at Arkansas). Now both teams seem to be hot and it should be a solid, defensive game. The SEC can be a little difficult to figure out, and the line-setters and the Matrix seem to be seeing it that way as well. But Georgia needs to cover and then some at home to convince me they deserve to be 10^th with two losses.

The Matrix: Georgia by ½ a point

Game 2. (17) USC @ Cal

A month ago this was set to be the big showdown in the PAC 10. Well, it turns out the big showdown already took place last week in Eugene, but this game will still throw a lot of talent on the field. Surprisingly, the two teams are only 36^th and 39^th in the nation in scoring despite having tons of talent. Cal’s offensive production has fallen every game since scoring 45 against a relatively tough Arizona defense. USC, on the other hand, played Oregon tough two weeks ago, clobbered Notre Dame’s JV team, and beat Oregon State handily last week. Unless Cal turns it around, USC should win in style but, at home, Cal has the talent to compete.

The Matrix: USC by ½ a point

Game 3. Illinois @ (1) Ohio State

My gut tells me that Ohio State better watch out for this game, but I can’t find any statistic to support that inclination. Illinois has lost some steam recently since its big win over Wisconsin. We can be confident that Juice won’t get much done in the air, but, if he can stretch the field a little, just might be able to pound out some points on the ground – against the nation’s second best run defense. Unfortunately for the Fighting Illini, Ohio State will have a much easier time scoring points. If Wells gets going, Ohio State could cover easily.

The Matrix: Ohio State by 20

Game 4. (4) Kansas @ Oklahoma State

Here’s why this game is important – Kansas is still undefeated. If Kansas wins out, it would have a portfolio that includes wins on the road and at a neutral field against top ten teams. That being the case, I think you have to put them in the national championship game, even if that means hopping them over one loss Oregon and LSU. But first it must beat the Cowboys. Kansas proved last week it could score points, and they will need to put up 35+ on Saturday if they want to win.

The Matrix: Kansas by 12

Game 5. Texas Tech @ (14) Texas

Texas Tech is 1^st in passing yards and 118^th in rushing yards, almost dead last in the nation. This isn’t new turf for Tech, but its still fun to watch. I still hold that Texas is over-rated this season, and I think Tech will show the world I’m right on Saturday. To come to the point, Harrell is a lot better than McCoy and the outcome will reflect that. The Matrix actually rates Tech higher than Texas, but gives the Longhorns a 3 point advantage at home.

The Matrix: Texas by 3

Pick of the Week:

Somehow, Iowa State has ended up on the other end of the Matrix’s pick of the week again. Colorado has a 74% of covering a five point line at Iowa State. We’ll see.

See Week 11 Predictions