This week's games: Notre Dame at Michigan

Considering that these two teams have hit new historic lows the last couple of seasons, this game is absurdly attention grabbing nationally. But it warrants the attention. First, it is the undercard of a weekend that will make or break the Big 10. Wins by the Wolverines and Buckeyes would catapult the Big 10 out of pee-wee league status. We also have two coaches that are on the ropes and need to win early and often. And both teams looked they were ready to do just that after impressive debuts.


Michigan's offense is much improved from a year ago (watching Sheridan and Threet do their best Pat White impressions was always good for a laugh). And a much maligned defense underperformed relative to its talent last season, and showed signs of moving in the right direction against Western Michigan. But this Michigan team, like last year's, is too prone to mood swings, and a hostile crowd at home just exacerbated that last season. Consequently, the first 10 minutes of this game will be crucial. If Clausen-to-Floyd gets rolling early (and I think it will), it could be a very long day for the blue-and-gold with silly mistakes, schematic breakdowns, and lackluster effort. On the other side, it will come down to speed-does Notre Dame field enough speed to keep Robinson from breaking a long touchdown? If so, Notre Dame will cover its 3.5.

This week's games: Oklahoma State vs. Georgia

I am posting two sets of graphs to compare teams that will be playing this week. One set shows how the teams have performed from 1994 to 2008 using the Matrix Hybrid rating. The second shows the trend-O-meter rating from 2008. Enjoy.


This game has surprisingly big team and conference implications. Oklahoma State needs this win if anyone is going to believe that they have really arrived. Georgia needs this win to put themselves back on the map after a relatively disappointing result last season. This game also represents the only meaningful game, and therefore important bragging rights, between the Big XII against the SEC before bowl season. Oklahoma State will have more experience at the skill positions, and early in the season that can be crucial.

This week's games: BYU vs. Oklahoma

I am posting two sets of graphs to compare teams that will be playing this week. One set shows how the teams have performed from 1994 to 2008 using the Matrix Hybrid rating. The second shows the trend-O-meter rating from 2008. Enjoy.

BYU was moving in the wrong direction last season, in large part because of the injury to TE Dennis Pitta. Pitta's back, but WR Austin Collie's gone, and the Cougars can only hope that recently returned missionary Mckay Jacobson can make up for Collie's lost production. His ability to do that will depend less on his own talent and more on BYU's relatively inexperienced offensive line. Oklahoma's D-line will be about as good as any in the country, and QB Max Hall could spend a lot of time in a more horizontal position than he might like.

Bradford, though, might also experience more horizontality this season than he has yet as the Sooner QB. If BYU's Jan Jorgensen can disrupt the calm demeanor of OU's offense, BYU could keep Oklahoma under 40. BYU can score 28 against anybody on a good day, so it is possible they keep this game moderately close. It's also possible they lose by 50. And that, my friends, is why we play the games-to see if they will lose by 10 or half a century (or maybe's it really just the big paycheck).

This week's games: Missouri vs. Illinois

I am posting two sets of graphs to compare teams that will be playing this week. One set shows how the teams have performed from 1994 to 2008 using the Matrix Hybrid rating. The second shows the trend-O-meter rating from 2008. Enjoy.


Last year, this game was thought to have BCS implications. It didn't. Missouri started 2008 where it had left off in 2007, but they took a big step back during that season and they will take a bigger step back this year. Illinois should be the same mediocre to bad team they have been since bringing in Zook (with the exception of 2007 until they were exposed by USC). Zook should have some good talent that will be coming of age this season, but, just as in Florida, Illinois will need to find a real football coach if they want to exploit that talent. Regardless, even if the level of play will be lower this year than what it has been in years past, this should still be a fun game to watch.

This week's games: Miami at Florida State

I am posting two sets of graphs to compare teams that will be playing this week. One set shows how the teams have performed from 1994 to 2008 using the Matrix Hybrid rating. The second shows the trend-O-meter rating from 2008. Enjoy.


These two, once proud programs have been in nose dive mode for most of the last decade-Florida State since 1999 and Miami since 2001 (years in which both teams marked a perfect score in the Matrix Hybrid). It is no small coincidence that Miami saw its stock rise as Florida State was plummeting, and Florida has risen to become THE national power as both programs have fallen to new lows. Rumor has it, though, that Florida State is on the mend, and their performance last year seems to be evidence of that. Shannon has been recruiting well enough to restore Miami to respectability, but we are yet to see the fruits of his labors on the field. I want to see if either team can field a well-oiled offense before I hop on any bandwagons.

This week's games: Virginia Tech vs. Alabama

I am posting two sets of graphs to compare teams that will be playing this week. One set shows how the teams have performed from 1994 to 2008 using the Matrix Hybrid rating. The second shows the trend-O-meter rating from 2008. Enjoy.


Until last year, Virginia Tech had been the better program for about a decade, but were in need of some rebuilding last year and still look like a work in progress. The Tide have improved substantially since the arrival of Saban and seem to be well ahead of Virginia Tech in their rebuilding projects going in to this season.

This game will go to the team who's defense scores first. A Darren Evan-less VT offense is better off punting before Tyrod Taylor gives up a pick six. And Bama's defense will be as good as any in the country. I'm not sure how they'll respond after losing Macho Harris, but if the VT secondary can keep Julio Jones in check Alabama's offense will be as exciting as pit stains. Should be fun.

This week's games: Oregon at Boise State

I am posting two sets of graphs to compare teams that will be playing this week. One set shows how the teams have performed from 1994 to 2008 using the Matrix Hybrid rating. The second shows the trend-O-meter rating from 2008. Enjoy.

Boise State and Oregon have been fairly good and fairly even the last few years. Both teams improved substantially over the course of last season as they broke in new quarterbacks. Boise State caught Oregon at a low point last season, and won't do the same again this year, but the game is in Boise, and few are better at home than the Broncos-and Boise needs the win more.

College Football 2008

Now that the season's over, it's time to review and rank.

The Matrix offers us rankings based on three basic ideas-efficiency, performance, and win/loss record. Efficiency is based on yards per play. the efficiency ratings presented here are adjusted for the strength of a team's competition and weighted appropriately. Performance is a team's capacity to score or prevent the scoring of points. Finally, the Elo rating is based exclusively on the win/loss record of a team and of its opponents. I use a hybrid rating that combines these three to rank all 120 D-IA college football teams.

Florida comes in at #1. USC, Oklahoma, Texas and Penn State fill out the top 5. Utah and TCU then represent the MWC at 6 and 7 despite having weak schedules (71 and 55, respectively).

Oklahoma scores the nation's best offense (with Florida coming in second) and USC the nation's best defense (TCU at number 2). Oklahoma had the best passing offense and Oregon the most effective run offense (just ask Oklahoma State about that offense).

Oklahoma also had the toughest schedule (playing in the Big 12 and national championship games bulked a schedule that already included the rest of the Big 12 South, TCU and the Big East champ). Washington had the second toughest schedule, but navigated it less well than OU.

The Apple Cup was everythign we thought it would be, including the two worst BCS conference teams in the country. Despite winning the game, Washington State still managed to wrestle the title of worst BCS conference team from Washington.

But is was a team in Texas that wrote the book on futility. North Texas had the nation's worst defense (again) and a really bad offense measured both in terms of scoring and efficiency.

Bowl Results

Things were going very well until I went 0 for 4 the last four bowl games. Still, the Matrix was 53% against the spread. It correctly predicted 67% of winners, which isn't too impressive until you recognize that the Vegas line only picked the winner 53% of the time. At times, the Matrix seemed prophetic, picking Utah over Alabama and hitting the Boise State/TCU game on the nose. But then it estimated that Oregon State and Pitt would combine for 56 points. All in all, it was a topsy turvy bowl season, but the Matrix weathered it relatively well.

2008 Bowl Picks

This is a little bit late, but my computer doesn't know the difference. Winners against the spread are in bold. It's currently running at 50% against the spread and has a slightly higher correlation with the margin than the spread.

Matrix Picks

Here are the Matrix picks for this weekend. Some interesting picks: Kansas State over Texas Tech-the Matrix sees Kansas State out-dueling the Red Raiders, throwing for over 8 yards a pass while holding Tech to under 6. Illinois over Michigan-no big surprise to me. Vandy over Auburn-Vandy will hold Auburn to under 3.5 yards per play and score enough points to pull out the tough victory. (Click the image to see a larger version.)

Matrix Rankings

Here are the first Matrix rankings of this season. These are the performance rankings only. That means it does not give special preference to winning and losing, only the margin of victory (which is positive if the team wins and negative if it loses).
(Click here for all D1A teams)
Another thing to keep in mind is that these rankings are based on very little data. In science, trying to make conclusions from 4 or 5 data points is a joke, but this is entertainment so I tried it anyway. It's amazing to think that the Matrix is suggesting that Texas is going undernoticed, but if you look at their resume this season, it is very impressive.

A Methodology of the Matrix

I've described aspects of the Matrix as it has evolved, but I think its about time that I give it one coherent description for anyone interested.

The Matrix uses three ratings- a general performance rating based on margin of victory (which is used for rankings), a recent performance rating, and a win/loss rating. The general rating and win/loss rating are calculated with a progressive adjustment model derived from the Elo chess rating system. Ratings are adjusted according to the improbability that a given outcome would occur. The model simulates the season a few hundred times, allowing smaller adjustments with each round, until, through automated trial and error, it arrives at the ratings associated with the least improbability.

For both the general performance rating and win/loss rating, the model assumes that a team's performance will vary and the probability of a particular performance level will fall somewhere on the normal curve. The ratings, therefore, theoretically represent the mean. The larger the point margin, the less effect an additional point will have on ratings, so the effect of "running up the score" is minimal. When estimating the improbability of an event, the model barely differentiates an 18 point win and a 40 point win.

The win/loss rating, obviously, uses only wins and losses and ignore the margin of victory. The factor actually has very little effect on the outcome of model, but I have included it for the sake of comprehensiveness. For the most part, close games really are primarily by luck, and so it is best that the model does not overemphasize the winning of the game. Because the model uses a marginal progressive adjustment method, it is able to handle undefeated teams without the problems faced by MLE approaches.

After the general and win/loss ratings have been calculated, a recent performance ratings is calculated using the deviation of a teams margin of victory from the expected margin of victory. Obviously, greater weight is given to more recent games.

The final component of the Matrix are the Navy adjustment factors. Essentially, these factors compare a team's opponent against past opponent in terms of its relative dependency on the pass and run and then adjusts the expected outcome to match any advantages or disadvantages a team may experience in match-ups. For example, if a team has plays terrible pass defense and now has to play Texas Tech, it should be expected to under-perform relative to its general, recent and win/loss performance ratings.

The general performance rating, win/loss rating, recent performance rating, and Navy adjustment factors are then weighted and used to estimate the margin of victory (along with an adjustment for home field advantage). Finally, I use a consistency rating (how predictable a team's performance has been) to estimate the probability of a suggested outcome (of a team winning or covering the spread).

Results:

These results are only relevant for the results before week 11, 2007.

Top 5 overall:
1. Ohio State
2. Oregon
3. West Virginia
4. LSU
5. Missouri

(Note: After the OSU lost and WVU struggled against Louisville, Oregon has taken the top spot and Oklahoma and Kansas have moved into the top 5)

Oklahoma fans might see a problem that Missouri is ranked higher than their own Sooners. This is a good example, though, where the model has punished Oklahoma more for the greater improbability of their loss to Colorado. Because both teams have only one loss and Missouri loss to a better team than Colorado (who just happens to be Oklahoma), Missouri is ranked higher. Oklahoma is 6th and only 2/10's of a point behind the Tigers.

Top 5 Win/Loss
1. Ohio State
2. Kansas
3. Hawaii
4. LSU
4. Oklahoma
4. Arizona State

Obviously, a win/loss rating should give extra kudos to undefeated teams. The three-way tie for 4th is a bit of an anomaly, but here the Sooners have the advantage over Missouri.

Top 5 Consistency
1. Kansas
2. Florida International
3. Utah State
4. Arizona State
5. Ohio State

Two types of teams find themselves among the most consistent. The surprisingly successful teams that just seem to win every week and the really, really bad teams that will always play poorly against D1A competition. I thought it was interesting that Kansas has been the most consistent team this season and they are 9-0 against the spread this year.

The five most unpredictable teams -
1. UCLA
2. Utah
3. Central Michigan
4. Iowa State
5. UNLV

Fitting.

Navy adjustment factor:

You can't produce a ranking from the adjustment factor, but we can guess which teams are going to have a tough match-up this weekend. The team most likely to get unusually lit up through the air this week was, coincidentally, Navy who gave up almost 500 passing yards and 62 points in a winning effort against the 1-7 (now 1-8) Mean Green of North Texas.

Recent Performance:

Again, it doesn't make much sense to rank teams on their recent performances, because it is relative to their general performance, but the hottest team going into this weekend was Iowa State (relative to their performance all season). Unfortunately for Boston College, another very hot team is Clemson - and a cold team is, well, BC.

When dealing with all these factors, I think it is important to consider their relative importance. The Matrix has the power to explain about 65% of the variance of point margins for games involving D1A teams this season. About 61% is explained by the general performance rating alone and the other 4% by the other adjustment factors and ratings. The win/loss rating barely makes an appearance, and is really just included so the model can be comprehensive and "hybrid," which is such a popular term is sports rating these days.

The model is still somewhat fluid as I make minor adjustments to deal with problems as they arise, but these are the general principles on which it is based. I will continue to publish rankings and predictions, and I will add other stats - consistency, recent performance, match-up warnings, unexpected results, etc.

P.S. according to the Matrix, the most unlikely outcome involving two D1A teams was Notre Dame over UNLV and #2 was UNLV over Utah.

Week 11 Predictions

See Week 11 Predictions
See Week 11 Rankings

Last week, the Matrix was 5-0 picking winners in the spotlighted games, but 1-4 against the spread (despite being 27-21 against the spread for the week across all games).

Before getting to the games, I made a couple of minor changes to fix some glitches. The big change is the Navy factor. Basically, the formula from last week gave equal weight across all teams for their pass and run efficiencies. Navy, though, scores high in pass efficiency but doesn’t win games that way. So, I’ve added a factor to weight efficiencies based on the relative importance for that team’s offense.

Now the picks.

Game 1. (18) Auburn @ (10) Georgia

Auburn has lost 3 games by a total of 14 points, including a losses to a former #2 (South Florida) and the current #2, but also managed to lose to Mississippi State. Georgia lost one game by 21 to an inferior Tennessee (though definitely not inferior on that night). Georgia has only 1 quality win (at Florida) and a semi-quality win (at Alabama). Auburn’s record looks similar (at Florida and at Arkansas). Now both teams seem to be hot and it should be a solid, defensive game. The SEC can be a little difficult to figure out, and the line-setters and the Matrix seem to be seeing it that way as well. But Georgia needs to cover and then some at home to convince me they deserve to be 10^th with two losses.

The Matrix: Georgia by ½ a point

Game 2. (17) USC @ Cal

A month ago this was set to be the big showdown in the PAC 10. Well, it turns out the big showdown already took place last week in Eugene, but this game will still throw a lot of talent on the field. Surprisingly, the two teams are only 36^th and 39^th in the nation in scoring despite having tons of talent. Cal’s offensive production has fallen every game since scoring 45 against a relatively tough Arizona defense. USC, on the other hand, played Oregon tough two weeks ago, clobbered Notre Dame’s JV team, and beat Oregon State handily last week. Unless Cal turns it around, USC should win in style but, at home, Cal has the talent to compete.

The Matrix: USC by ½ a point

Game 3. Illinois @ (1) Ohio State

My gut tells me that Ohio State better watch out for this game, but I can’t find any statistic to support that inclination. Illinois has lost some steam recently since its big win over Wisconsin. We can be confident that Juice won’t get much done in the air, but, if he can stretch the field a little, just might be able to pound out some points on the ground – against the nation’s second best run defense. Unfortunately for the Fighting Illini, Ohio State will have a much easier time scoring points. If Wells gets going, Ohio State could cover easily.

The Matrix: Ohio State by 20

Game 4. (4) Kansas @ Oklahoma State

Here’s why this game is important – Kansas is still undefeated. If Kansas wins out, it would have a portfolio that includes wins on the road and at a neutral field against top ten teams. That being the case, I think you have to put them in the national championship game, even if that means hopping them over one loss Oregon and LSU. But first it must beat the Cowboys. Kansas proved last week it could score points, and they will need to put up 35+ on Saturday if they want to win.

The Matrix: Kansas by 12

Game 5. Texas Tech @ (14) Texas

Texas Tech is 1^st in passing yards and 118^th in rushing yards, almost dead last in the nation. This isn’t new turf for Tech, but its still fun to watch. I still hold that Texas is over-rated this season, and I think Tech will show the world I’m right on Saturday. To come to the point, Harrell is a lot better than McCoy and the outcome will reflect that. The Matrix actually rates Tech higher than Texas, but gives the Longhorns a 3 point advantage at home.

The Matrix: Texas by 3

Pick of the Week:

Somehow, Iowa State has ended up on the other end of the Matrix’s pick of the week again. Colorado has a 74% of covering a five point line at Iowa State. We’ll see.

See Week 11 Predictions

Week 11 Rankings

Week 11 Rankings

#1?
Ohio State.

You can't really argue with that, can you? And if the Matrix picked the participants for the national championship game today we would see the Buckeyes against the Ducks. And, in case you're wondering, it would give Oregon a 60% chance of winning.

SEC fans might gripe about this, but SEC teams don't win big enough. LSU really shouldn't need a brilliant combination of luck and guts to beat Alabama in a late comeback. Oregon didn't need late heroics to beat Arizona State, who also has a pretty good team. And hanging your hat on the Florida-Ohio State game here won't do you any good. USC put as solid a whipping on Michigan as Florida did on Ohio State.

Some things to keep in mind when you look at the rankings. First, it is based on margin of victory, not wins and losses, but with a very rapid diminishing returns for large margins of victory. In other words, it sees a 1 point win as little better than a one point loss, but a one point loss versus a 1 point win can change a teams ranking about as much as a 15 point win instead of a 35 point win.

I've set it side by side with a few other important and sophisticated polls. The scores under Matrix represent the teams rating and the number on the far left side is the ranking according to the Matrix. The mean is a number I've pulled from masseyratings.com which compares over a hundred rankings. I'm a big fan of this compilation and of the Massey ratings.

There are a few kinks with the html that I need to work out, but that will have to wait until another day.

Click here to see the rankings

Week 10 Recap and the Field Goal Calculator

With one game left this weekend, I thought it was about time to report on the initial results from the Matrix's first weekend. All in all, things have gone well. The Matrix correctly picked the winner in 38 of 53 games and was 27-21 against the line.

And it could have been better. If you look back at the picks (table) from last week, you might notice that Oregon is listed as the road team against Arizona State. Unless Arizona State has decided to start playing its home games thousands of miles from home, this is a typo. The Matrix gives teams a bonus if they are playing at home, and, in this case, gave Oregon's "at-home" credit to Arizona State. This mistake shifted the prediction, in this case, by about nine points. In other words, if the Matrix would have been fed accurate data, it would have been correct.

Then there is Rice and Texas. After ragging on these two teams last week, they put up a combined 52 points in the 4th quarter to win and cover the spread. Cincinnati put up 31 in the 1st quarter to do the same. And then the Demon Deacons felt the Cavalier curse and missed what would have been the winning field goal in the last seconds.

But I found a more worrying issue when I looked more closely at the results from the Matrix. Against the line, the Matrix was 0-2 when it gave one team an 80% chance or greater of covering. One, which I mentioned before, was Rice and their 20 point comeback. The other was Iowa State, who seems to actually be a much better team these days. The Matrix was most accurate when it gave one team only a small advantage.

The game of the week, in my opinion, lived up to its billing (that I gave it). Navy wins in triple overtime on a failed two point conversion attempt. Historic. I'm a bit biased towards the midshipmen - I love to watch their offense - but how could anyone that isn't a Catholic not jump on the Navy bandwagon after that game.

The Field Goal Calculator

The field goal calculator is my initial attempt to create an adjustable system that can estimate the number of points that a team will get on average if they kick a field goal or go for it on 4th down. The calculations come from an earlier blog and are not, by any means, perfect, but I think it is a good starting point.

Here, I have provided an excel spreadsheet so users can play with it themselves. The spreadsheet has 4 entries and a graph. You can adjust it for the leg strength of the kicker (average = 0), the accuracy of the kicker (average = 0), the average yards per play for that team, and the number of yards the team needs to get a first down. The graph shows how many points that team could expect to get if they went for it or if they kicked the field goal from various points on the field.

Download Field Goal Calculator.xls