Matrix Rankings

Here are the first Matrix rankings of this season. These are the performance rankings only. That means it does not give special preference to winning and losing, only the margin of victory (which is positive if the team wins and negative if it loses).
(Click here for all D1A teams)
Another thing to keep in mind is that these rankings are based on very little data. In science, trying to make conclusions from 4 or 5 data points is a joke, but this is entertainment so I tried it anyway. It's amazing to think that the Matrix is suggesting that Texas is going undernoticed, but if you look at their resume this season, it is very impressive.

Big 12 South, 2007(8 P)review

I think its important, before we get lost in the hype about certain teams this year, to look back at what these same teams did with their talent last year because, on average, more than 75% of the team is the same as last year. I'm using two measures that I developed to measure performance and reputation over the course of a season. Today, I'm focusing on the Big XII South.

My big questions for the Big 12:
1) Is Tech ready for a breakout year?
2) Who will win the Red River Shootout?
3) Is Oklahoma State on the way up or down?
4) Who will win the Big 12 South?


1) Texas Tech spent most of the season down in the pack in the Big 12 South. After losing the shootout to Oklahoma State, Leach asked for more from the defense and, generally it delivered. With Graham and Crabtree putting up ridiculous numbers, Tech became a real force and arguably one of the better teams in the country. If Leach (the best offensive mind in college football?) can change the status quo in Lubbock on the defensive side of the ball, Tech can realize some pretty high expectations.



2) OU started the season in 2007, behind the ridiculous start of Bradford, in high form which it never again realized. If Mr. Melton is right and Sam is regressing toward a mean, OU could be in for a mediocre season. On the other hand, while UT finally showed some signs of life against Arizona State after a whipping by rival A&M, Colt is not getting any better and super recruiter Mack Brown has not been incredibly successful without the incredible hulk under center. For now, I'll go with the Sooners.


3) (Performance is the solid line and Reputation the dotted line). Oklahoma State? Over-Rated! Oklahoma State never achieved that high of a level last season despite touting "the best offense ever." I doubt expect anything more this next season. With money and flash, they are a popular dark horse, but popular opinion last year and this year continues to rank them in the middle of the pack where they belong. Don't get lost in the hype.

4) Who will win it--dare I say Texas Tech? No, I daren't. Tech will be very successful this season and win a lot of games, but I think Leach needs at least one more year to instill an attitude of expectations that produces the consistent play necessary to win a conference half-championship. This year, like every year, the Big 12 South is OU's to lose.

My College Football Kickoff

A blog devoted to statistical rankings and ratings can be a little dull the first few weeks of the season and devoid of content before the season starts, but I've decided to throw in my two cents and subjective predictions along with everyone else. Here are some things that stick out to me:

1) USC vs. Florida national championship game.

The only thing that attracts my ire like LA sports teams is Urban Meyer. Nothing against these two programs or their fans, but I always want them to fail. I even committed the damning heresy of urging Vince Young into the end zone in Pasadena a few years ago because that special place in Hell reserved for traitors of college football fandom seemed so much better than the alternative.

But here's how it will go down.

USC beats the OSU at home and they will lose no more than one game this season, so Ohio State is not losing a championship game this year. Oklahoma will lose to Texas Tech or Texas and finish behind the Trojans as well. In the SEC, Florida will score 100 points a game as long as Tebow is healthy and they will beat Georgia in Jacksonville. Florida's strength of schedule will be enough to help them edge out one loss OU and Ohio State as long as they lose no more than one game and they will have the head-to-head win against Georgia.

The team most likely to crash the party, in my opinion, is OU, who should beat a Texas team that will take another step down since 2005 and will play Tech in Norman.

2) For the love of all that is holy, get Notre Dame out of your preseason polls.

Notre Dame will go to a bowl game because their schedule boasts powerhouses North Carolina, post-Paul Johnson Navy, Stanford and Syracuse, but giving them a ranking at this point is a crime against humanity-even Robert Mugabe wouldn't so egregiously fix poll outcomes. Notre Dame didn't just have a bad year in 2007, they had, arguably, the worst offense in DI-A and would need to leap frog about 55 teams from last year to pull their way into the top 25-and the problem last year wasn't talent but know-how (aka coaching). And preseason polls matter, because they determine whether or not teams are even on the map, and Notre Dame, despite their name and their coach's name and even their qb's name, need to earn their spot on the map like everyone else.

3) BYU should downplay its potential for this season

Bronco is a stud and a motivational guru, but BYU will fail in its Quest for Perfection. The offense will be good, but it was better two years ago and will be better next year. The defense will be suitable for the MWC, but vulnerable to talent. They will lose at Washington, at TCU or, most likely, at Utah (against whom they have needed miracles to win the last two years) and all the publicity that they inspired this year will haunt them as they try to make a run with a better team next year. Talk of BCS glory and even Heisman contention is not just ridiculous but counter-productive.

4) Texas Tech will have a typical Tech season

Tech is unpredictable. They can score 60 one week and 10 the next. They always play well against some teams (for example, Texas A&M) and poorly against others. Despite what most people believe, Tech's problem has not been its defense, but its inconsistency on offense and defense. Tech may win its good games by more and maybe even pull out a victory in a bad game, but the record at the end of 2008 will not be much different than the past few seasons.

5) Illinois and Kansas will take steps back towards mediocrity

First, I should put this in perspective. Illinois finished second in the Big 10 and then got exploited in their bowl game. To those from the South, Illinois never left mediocrity. But a Mendenhall-less Illini cannot be carried to much success this season by a quarterback that has achieved the same level of accuracy with a football as I have in my golf game. Kansas had a season to be proud of last year, but the truth is they exploited a soft schedule by playing solid football. They have some talent on offense, but they won't turning too many heads. I hope Jayhawk fans enjoyed the success they experienced in the 2007-2008 academic year because it won't be repeated anytime soon.

6) And the winner of the 2008 Heisman trophy is . . .

"Boy oh boy this must be a good award!"

Much of this season (metaphorically) rests on Tebow's (literal) shoulder. If he stays healthy, with his talent, the weapons around him and Florida's offensive scheme, he will run away with a second Heisman. Georgia's Moreno is another obvious choice--tons of talent on a team with tons of talent, and he would be the front runner in my mind if Tebow stumbled and Georgia worked its way into the national championship game. Bradford and Daniels in the Big 12 will both put up big numbers as will Devine in the land of snuff and rusted cars.

Then there is Michael Crabtree. The guy is not only in a system where he can put up numbers that make you squint and check your prescription, but he is also an incredible talent. If Tech is able to redefine itself this season as a real football team instead of a high scoring gimmick, Crabtree could even overtake a best performance from Timothy in Gainesville.

7) Not Again

If the BCS picture this year shakes down like it did last year, with teams blowing big games against inferior teams, losing quarterbacks at crucial moments, and under-performing squads backing into national championships, I think I'm going to become a Hockey fan. We need two teams that both have legitimate claims to the title and have separated themselves from the pack. But if that's Florida and USC, I think I'm going to be sick.

Week 15 Rankings

Complete Week 14 Ratings Table Here

According to the Matrix, the national championship game already took place, in San Antonio, on Saturday, and Oklahoma won.

I mentioned yesterday how Stoops was trying to manipulate the national championship game with his vote. Well, this is how that kind of manipulation occurs statistically. It is a bootstrap technique. Missouri's rating is dependent on OU's rating because both of Missouri's losses came at the hands of the Sooners. Oklahoma's rating, likewise, depends on Missouri's, because Oklahoma's two biggest wins came against Missouri. When Missouri loses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma's stock is boosted, which lessens the penalty levied on Missouri for losing twice to them, which, again, boosts Oklahoma's stock for having beaten them, etc.

That, of course, does not mean the system is flawed. If you look at the way these two teams have performed, with the exception of Oklahoma's games against Colorado and Tech, you will not find a more impressive record in the country.

Missouri, though still #1, took a hit. Last week, it was consensus number 1 (in all three polls the Matrix generates) with huge leads over everyone but West Virginia. If West Virginia had not managed to choke as no other team has ever choked before or ever will again (Pitt is now the nation's second hottest team according to the Recent rating), Missouri would have dropped to 2 and, in fact, could have potentially dropped below Oklahoma in the Hybrid poll as well.

USC and Ohio State still sit comfortably at #1 and #2 with the nation's best defenses. Florida still has the highest performing offense, but Navy (from the wishbone, no less) is now nipping at the heels of the Gators.

The Vandals have made a strong move to the bottom of the list as the nation's worse team, claiming a title Florida International had been coveting all season. The Gophers are the worst team from a BCS conference - Brewster's really taking things a whole new direction. The amazing thing about the 1-11 season is that it should never happen. Minnesota actually has a history of success in the game, a massive student body (=fans in the stadium and revenue for financing facilities), and is in the Big 10. Ironically, Minnesota payed Brewster more per win than any other team in the country.

That is not the case with football failures SMU and Rice. They were almost competitive for years in the SWC but, like Baylor, cannot compete with the larger schools in Texas - especially since SMU can't get away with putting together the best team money can buy anymore. Despite all the talent in that fine state, Texas has three of the nation's six worst teams (with the Mean Green joining the others at 118). At the other end, Texas has no teams in the top 25 according to the Matrix.

Before moving on, I would like to congratulate Washington for scoring this season's most difficult schedule. Unfortunately, the strength of that schedule is very visible in their record this season.

I thought I would end this with a brief discussion of the rating measures you can find on the table.

Performance - A rating based only on margin of victory and opponent strength.
Potential - Based on the performance rating, but tries to take into account match-ups and "luck" that might have distorted a teams performance rating.
Elo - A rating based on wins and losses and opponent strength.
Hybrid-2 - A combined rating that takes into account the first three rating approaches.
Strength of Schedule (SOS) - this is the mean of a team's opponents' ratings. I have included it as an additional piece of information - it is not used in the calculations of any ratings.
Recent - A rating of a team's recent performance relative to its average performance - a Recent rating does not mean that a team is good, only that it is playing better than before.
Consistent - the consistency rating is read like a golf score - a low number means the team has been relatively predictable.
Efficiencies - These are relatively self-explanatory. A higher number means that a team has demonstrated a higher level of efficiency in that area.

Complete Week 14 Ratings Table Here

Historic Rankings: 2003 - 2006

2006 Ratings
2005 Ratings
2004 Ratings
2003 Ratings

With the season beginning to wrap up, I decided it was time to start adding historic polls to the site. These polls use the same methodology that I have developed this season, but, due to a lack of data, I cannot (yet) do the potential, offensive and defensive ratings that I post for the current season. I have added a strength of schedule rating and a hybrid ranking (a slightly altered version of the combined rating). The Elo rating is the win/loss rating, but Elo just makes for a shorter name and pays homage to the fellow that developed the basic methodology that I have borrowed.

I have finished preparing results for 2003 to 2006. The results are similar to the BCS and AP final rankings. Initially, it looks like the Matrix gives less credence to bowl game outcomes than the human polls and more credit to mid-majors than the computer polls. The Matrix even had the audacity to rank Utah #1 in the performance poll for 2004 - I watched that team live several times and would have given them even odds against anyone in the country outside of the Coliseum. In fact, 3 teams were rated over 50 in the performance rating in the 4 year period - Texas 2005, Utah 2004 and USC 2004.

I have done my best to identify errors, but let me know if you find any. I am indebted to James Howell for making this data available.

Footnotes: I stumbled on this little chart - the final coach's ballot - while perusing through The Wizard of Odds. Obviously, coaches tried to sneak their team in the championship game. Beamer puts the Hokies at #2, with LSU at #1 (he couldn't put his team ahead of LSU after the beat down they gave them). And Richt put Georgia at #2 - I'd like to hear his explanation of how Georgia is more deserving than their conference champions (LSU).

But Bob Stoops wins the "I did my best to manipulate the polls and get my team in the championship game" award. First, he had the guts to put his two-loss Sooners at #1 - no surprise there. And Ohio State was #2 in the Stoops poll. Where did LSU fall? #6! No other coach ranked LSU lower. Georgia came in 8th, again among the lowest in the country. It looks to me like Stoops identified and dropped his toughest competition - to no avail.

Week 13 Rankings

Click Here for Complete Week 13 Rankings

Before Dennis Dixon went down, I was beginning to believe Oregon just might be the best team in the nation. My own rankings suggested that they had performed at a higher level than any other team in the nation this season. But one bad twist of the knee can shake things up quite bit.

This week I have added a Potential ranking. The Performance ranking that I have used in the past focuses on the score outcomes of games. The Potential rating takes into account a few other factors, foremost of which are total yards and "hardship". Hardship is the difficulty of the match-ups a team faces. For example, Florida's pass defense is barely above average while its run defense is 7th in the nation. Unfortunately for Florida, it has played more teams that are more dependent on the pass than on the run. Consequently, Florida has more potential than game outcomes would suggest - they are 4th by potential and 7th by performance.

The Recent ranking is how well a team has performed recently relative to their average performance. Louisiana-Monroe, for example, has jumped to #4 after the shocker in Tuscaloosa. The rest, I believe, are self-explanatory.

#1?
LSU

The Tigers managed to jump WVU this past week primarily because Pat White fumbled twice the 4th quarter and allowed the game to get closer than it needed to be.

After LSU
2. West Virginia
3. Kansas
4. Ohio State
4. Oregon
6. Missouri

Oregon menos Dixon won't be able to play up to the model's expectations, which should give the edge to Missouri and Ohio State. Missouri, if they are able to beat Kansas and Oklahoma will have enough mustard to jump Ohio State as well.

Potential Rankings:
LSU and West Virginia again are at 1 and 2. Florida jumps up to 4. Missouri also moves up into the #3 spot and Kansas is bumped down to #5.

The worse BCS team - Baylor. The Bears come in a few spots below fellow BCS powerhouses Iowa State, Minnesota, Syracuse and Duke. These teams, Northwestern and Notre Dame have all performed at a lower level than any team in the Mountain West this season.

Win Rating:
In my equivalent of a BCS poll, Kansas takes the #1 spot. Hawaii, after a dismal performance against Nevada - that resulted in a win - moves up 2 spots from last week to 6.

Consistency:
The consistency rating is like a golf score - low numbers are good. Kansas stays at number 1 for another week after they cover for the tenth time this season. The Vandals make a move up, surprising no one with their soft performance. WVU makes a surprise appearance at #4 after their rating was adjusted down a bit from past weeks.

Recent Performance:
Two hyphenated Louisiana squads bust into the top 5. Iowa State, despite losing by 38 to Kansas, is still 3rd - the Matrix predicted them to lose by 40 so they actually broke par in that game.

Offensive Efficiency:
Oregon and Florida have the most efficient run and pass offenses, respectively. Florida (aka Tebow) also makes a good argument for the most efficient offense overall, ranked 13 in run efficiency.

Defensive Efficiency:
LSU's vaunted defense took a big hit this last week and has dropped below USC and Ohio State, easily the two best defenses in the nation. South Carolina can take pride as the nation's most lopsided defense, ranked 5th in pass defense and below average in run defense.

How bad is Minnesota's defense? They have the worst run defense in the nation and the 5th worst pass defense. Overall, only Toledo is less capable of stopping their opponents - bringing shame to the entire Big 10.

For those Aggie fans on the Fire Fran bandwagon, these rankings offer some good evidence of his incompetence. The Wrecking Crew defense of legend is ranked just above Iowa State in run defense and somewhere between UAB and Ohio (not Ohio State, but Ohio) in pass defense. There are also 93 D 1A teams that pass more efficiently than A&M, including Temple and Buffalo.

Click Here for Complete Week 13 Rankings