College Football 2008

Now that the season's over, it's time to review and rank.

The Matrix offers us rankings based on three basic ideas-efficiency, performance, and win/loss record. Efficiency is based on yards per play. the efficiency ratings presented here are adjusted for the strength of a team's competition and weighted appropriately. Performance is a team's capacity to score or prevent the scoring of points. Finally, the Elo rating is based exclusively on the win/loss record of a team and of its opponents. I use a hybrid rating that combines these three to rank all 120 D-IA college football teams.

Florida comes in at #1. USC, Oklahoma, Texas and Penn State fill out the top 5. Utah and TCU then represent the MWC at 6 and 7 despite having weak schedules (71 and 55, respectively).

Oklahoma scores the nation's best offense (with Florida coming in second) and USC the nation's best defense (TCU at number 2). Oklahoma had the best passing offense and Oregon the most effective run offense (just ask Oklahoma State about that offense).

Oklahoma also had the toughest schedule (playing in the Big 12 and national championship games bulked a schedule that already included the rest of the Big 12 South, TCU and the Big East champ). Washington had the second toughest schedule, but navigated it less well than OU.

The Apple Cup was everythign we thought it would be, including the two worst BCS conference teams in the country. Despite winning the game, Washington State still managed to wrestle the title of worst BCS conference team from Washington.

But is was a team in Texas that wrote the book on futility. North Texas had the nation's worst defense (again) and a really bad offense measured both in terms of scoring and efficiency.

Ten things we learned from week 5

10) Its a good idea to offer a guy a scholarship if it will help you land Jacquizz Rodgers. Its an even better idea if the guy turns out to be productive himself. And USC is just another Pac 10 team.

9) Tulsa, not East Carolina, is the potential BCS buster from Conference USA. The Golden Hurricane will score 700+ points this year and doesn't have anyone on the schedule that can put up those kind of numbers.

8) Gimmicky uniforms do not win football games by themselves. Oh, wait, Notre Dame learned that over a decade ago-over and over and over again.

7) Kentucky has a good defense. The Wildcats have kept three of their four opponents out of the endzone and under four points, including a competitive Louisville team. We will learn a lot more about this Kentucky team next week when they go to Alabama.

6) Not playing can sometimes be more impressive than winning. BYU got to enjoy a long weekend of college football-sitting on their butts-and in the meantime, they moved up 3 or 4 spots in the polls. This more or less makes up for the Cougars dropping 3 or 4 spots after beating Washington.

5) At least one team in the Pac 10 is better than a team in the MWC (Cal and Colorado State), and OU is better than any team in either conference.

4) Despite all predictions to the contrary, the ACC Coastal is better than ACC Atlantic. Navy?? If VT had started Tryod Taylor at the start of the season, the Coastal minus Virginia would be a combined 16-5 with three of those losses self-inflicted and another coming from Florida. The Atlantic, on the other hand, is a joke.

3) Penn State is the best team in the Big 10. The title doesn't mean as much as it used to, but it does mean that maybe, just maybe, the Big 10 will be able to give the Pac 10 a real game in the Rose Bowl this year.

2) Florida just isn't that good. Last year, they couldn't keep a JV team from throwing for 300 yards. This year, the problem isn't that simple. This Florida team is generally unexeptional at all aspects of the game-including quarterback.

1) You can't spot a top 10 team 31 points at the half and expect to win, but you can spot a top 10 team 19 points and pull it out. Or maybe we just learned that Wisconsin is not a top 10 team and their offense is more out of date than the slide rule.

Games to Watch: Week 5

Had I written this a bit earlier, I wouldn't have included USC at Oregon State. But now I know--if you haven't seen this game yet, to to ESPN360 right now and watch it. You'll learn couple of important things:

1) This wasn't one of those "the better team played crappy and turned the ball over 18 times and lost." Oregon State exposed weaknesses on the USC defensive line and gave defensive coordinators some very good ideas for slowing the Trojan offense down in future weeks.

2) The Rodgers brother are really, really good; Jacquizz was the best player on the field Thursday night.

3) USC has serious problems with injuries. Sanchez's knee is in bad shape and the USC linebacker corp of myth and legend will be lucky to survive through the season.

Alabama (+6.5) at Georgia

Why we care: Alabama and Georgia have gotten to this point by soundly beating the two most over-rated teams in college football (Clemson and Arizona State).

What to watch for: Line play. Georgia is better at every other position on the field, but Alabama is stronger on the lines. Alabama was in this situation earlier in the season and ambushed Clemson. Also watch WR's Julio Jones and AJ Green. Not only are they incredible talents and potential playmakers, but if they do produce they can add that second dimension to their teams and make them many times more explosive.

Misc: If wearing a black uni makes you play harder, you're not really a man. PS-I don't like Nick Saban.

Pick: Alabama by 3

Illinois (+15.5) at Penn State

Why we care: The winner, especially if its Penn State, could be taking their first big step towards getting blown out by USC in the Rose Bowl.

What to watch for: Penn State has a ton of talent on offense, but the defense hasn't been challenged yet. Can Joe Pa's boys contain Juice and Co.?

Misc: No one benefitted more than Penn State from Oregon State's win over USC. Not only does it open one more door towards a shot at the title, but it gives Penn State's 45-14 Beaver beatdown a lot more legitimacy as a meaningful win.

Pick: Penn State by 10

TCU (+18) at Oklahoma

Why we care: OU is the interim #1. If TCU wins this game, we might see a strong put to include a MWC team in the championship game at season's end.

What to watch for: OU has score 57, 52 and 55 while TCU is giving up 7 points a game. Something's got to give--and the giving will be decided at the line of scrimmage. TCU has a legitimately good defense, but they don't have the size to match up on the line against OU's All-American OL. If the DL can free up the linebackers and put some pressure on Bradford this game could get very interesting. If not (the more likely scenario), OU will cover.

Misc: If the new Big XII had brought in TCU instead of Baylor, 1) the Big XII South would be the best division in the history of college football, and 2) this game would be every bit as important as the Alabama/Georgia game.

Pick: OU by 14