This week's games: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech

Part two of the ACC reclamation project. After an absolutely abysmal weekend in the ACC, Miami and Florida State revived some faith in the ole basketball conference. Georgia Tech and Clemson will take the national stage on Thursday and hope to impress as well.

Don't count on it.

Though I wish the best for Paul Johnson and the spread option project, I think it will hit a snag in the road this season. Johnson was actually very fortunate in the available personnel when he arrived at Georgia Tech given his system so, unlike Rodriguez at Michigan, he won't see much Sophomore season improvement. Also, being in a conference works against him in the sense that more of his opponents will already have prepared for the system more times in the past-when LSU had time to prepare specifically for the Yellow Jackets last season, the result was rather ugly. In fact, the Tech team in 2008 was typical for Tech in this decade, and I think this team will be lucky to reach that level.

And while Clemson did improve throughout the season, this trend was exaggerated by falling expectations. When fans and analysts accepted just how bad Clemson could be, small successes suddenly seemed much larger. Though improved, Clemson was never actually good last year, and I have no reason to believe that will change. But, as I've said in the past, one nice thing about college football is that someone has to win, and right now that might be all the ACC can hope for.

Good Sign/Bad Sign Week 2

Non-BCS: Notre Dame
Good Sign: They won. In fact, they are now on pace to win 4 times as many games as they did in 2007. Clausen was solid, completing 57% of his passes, averaging just under 7 yards per pass, and got better as the game progressed-managing an almost heroic 4th quarter. The O-line was able to get a push and showed a recognition that they have blocking assignments, which allowed the Domers to scratch out more than 100 yards on the ground. The 4th quarter domination also demonstrated that the Domers have a little depth and are better conditioned than last year-and maybe, just maybe, they got their fight back.
Bad Sign: The score was 13-7 when SDSU fumbled in the Notre Dame end zone early in the 4th quarter. San Diego State had more total yards than Notre Dame and should have won, but the Aztecs gave the game away. San Diego State is really bad but still had a better chance of beating the Irish than they did Cal Poly. This is the easiest game on the schedule for Notre Dame and the Domers barely snuck by with a W.

Big East: USF
Good Sign: South Florida unofficially won this game by 3 touchdowns. They more than doubled UCF in yards and first downs. Grothe put up impressive numbers while he comfortably waited in the pocket as long as he needed for receivers to get open. Statistical domination is a better predictor of future performance than domination on the score board.
Bad Sign: A bad special teams mistake (91 yard touchdown return in on UCF's first offensive touch) and an inability to get the ball in the end zone allowed UCF to hang around, and then a complete inability to establish the funning game let UCF make their run in the 4th quarter. Grothe was the teams leading rusher, getting 20 carries-way too many-and just 2.7 yards per attempt. Being one dimensional makes it harder to convert in the red zone and to effectively run out the clock, both weaknesses that haunted the Bulls on Saturday.

Big Ten: Penn State
Good Sign: Here's why Penn State is quickly becoming my Big 10 favorite. First, Daryll Clark. He can stretch the field through the air (15 yards per completion, 215 yards passing against Oregon St), and then he can tuck it and run (12 yards per carry, 61 yards rushing)-that combo has given many of the Big 10 defenses fits. RB Evan Royster will get over 1,000 yards rushing (141 yards against Oregon St), so the offense is far from one dimensional. Then defense is solid, but more important, Penn State has demonstrated an ability to jump out early on teams and force them into a passing contest. With Wisconsin's and Ohio State's combination of lines and backs, that could be invaluable. I am officially off the Ohio State bandwagon and on the Penn State one.
Bad Sign: I don't know . . . their coach is really old?

Big 12: Texas Tech
Good Sign: On a day in which Graham Harrell struggled, Tech still won. Inconsistency has been a big problem for Tech, but they now have the depth of options that it didn't bite them too hard. They got a special teams touchdown early when the offense was completely out of whack and then 3 rushing touchdowns to pull away. The backs were productive, which gives Leach one more option if the day-to-day offense isn't clicking.
Bad Sign: Saturday's numbers may be more of a trend than a hiccup. Coordinators have had an off-season to analyze the Harrell to Crabtree connection, which is one reason it might be less reliable-take out the 82 yard reception against Nevada and Crabtree's numbers are quite pedestrian this season. Nevada outgained Tech as they moved the ball effectively on the ground and through the air, so aspirations for the defense might have been premature. Tech is still averaging 8 yards per pass attempt this season, but if that numbers drops to 6.5 against stiffer Big 12 defenses, folks in Lubbock might be very disappointed this season.

SEC: Kentucky
Good Sign: 5, 0, 370 = total points, total touchdowns, and total yards allowed this season. And one of those opponents was Louisville. Granted this is not the Louisville of the Bobby Petrino era and Norfolk St does not scare many opponents, but those numbers are the mark of solid, mistake free defense regardless of the opponent.
Bad Sign: Kentucky will need a very good defense to succeed in the SEC, because the offense isn't there. Kentucky has been trying to replace former QB Andre Woodson, and the dismissal of QB Curtis Pulley didn't help. Consequently, the Wildcats have managed only 147 yards passing in each of their first two games. They racked up 298 yards against Norfolk St., but those yards will be harder to come by against real opponents. The 210 yards of offense against Louisville might be the norm for this Kentucky team, which could make for a very long season.

ACC: Georgia Tech
Good Sign: The Yellow Jackets took a triple option offense to Boston College, faced off against one of the best run defenses in the country, and came home a winner.
Bad Sign: Tech's offense did not win this game. They managed only 162 yards on the ground on Saturday and dropped it 3 more times. The defense played well, but if Boston College had been able to convert its three short field goals into touchdowns, this game wouldn't have been close. At some point you start to wonder if this team this season with this group of athletes will ever get Paul Johnson's offense rolling.

Pac 10: Oregon
Good Sign: It is a statistical fact that demonstrating an ability to throw the ball against much weaker opponents is a better predictor of future success than running the ball, because it doesn't require any offensive sophistication to boll over 150 lb nose tackles. But running for 408 yards against a D1A opponent, even if that opponent was Utah State, is still impressive. Oh yeah, and they threw the ball effectively with two different quarterbacks. And the defense's work against Locker a week earlier now looks more impressive after he ran free against BYU.
Bad Sign: Their quarterback still isn't named Dennis Dixon and the running back dares to be someone other than Johnathon Stewart. That step down in athleticism will catch up with them against the more athletic defenses in the Pac 10.

People's Poll 2: The Masses Speak Again

With one weekend under our belt, the "participation" in the people's poll has increased dramatically. With this influx of new "voters", rankings became unstable. Among the more surprising victims are Miami, who fell out of the top 25 despite an impressive performance, Notre Dame, whose value fell without running a play, Georgia Tech, South Florida and Wisconsin. Virginia Tech got a boost despite losing and Kansas jumped five spots after beating the mighty Florida International.

Quick Notes: Opening Day

Head Ball Coach has a defense. South Carolina made a statement in their opener. In beating NC State 34-0, they gave up only 49 passing yards and forced 4 turnovers. But we knew SC’s defense was good. If the 4 Gamecock turnovers and offensive hiccups were just products of first game jitters, this Spurrier team could be for real—which means they finish 4^th in the SEC East.

The Runaround. Miami is fast. Really fast. Or Charleston Southern has tried to field a team of professional speed walkers. It's too bad no one was there to see the performance-even the fanciest camera angles couldn't hide all the empty seats.

What could’ve been and what can be. In January, Ryan Perriloux was the projected starter of the defending national champions. Now, LSU will start a Harvard transfer at QB and Ryan Perriloux is the starting QB at Jacksonville State. The entire town of Jacksonville couldn’t fill the visitor’s section at LSU’s Tiger Stadium.

Georgia Tech showed some potential in becoming a well-oiled Paul Johnson machine. The wide receivers were either making pancake blocks 30 yards downfield or catching goofy passes from QB Josh Nesbitt after releasing from the infamous “run haphazardly and get wide open” route. Half the time I had no idea where the ball was, and then I would find that it was 20 yards downfield and in the hands of someone I was pretty confident started the play on the sideline. Jonathan Dwyer, playing the hybrid running back/fullback B-Back position in Johnson’s scheme, will run for 1000+ yards this season and make the position a sexy one at Georgia Tech despite being only two inches from the QB’s butt.

But the Jackets still have a ways to go. The 2 fumbles and 70 yards of penalties can be reduced or eliminated. Josh Nesbitt completed only 5 of 12 passes. Last year’s Navy team hardly let the ball touch the grass on fumbles or incompletions and was penalized less than 30 yards a game.

Player that impressed. UConn’s RB Donald Brown is a stud. He is a known commodity in the Big East, but doesn’t get the recognition he deserves nationally. Against Hofstra, he demonstrated great vision and the ability to pop through the seam. He doesn’t have the bulk to carry the load for an entire game, but he won’t have to.

On the Money. I made two picks for Thursday's games and was an impressive 2-0 straight up and against the spread. The problem with achieving perfection this early in the season, though, is that I can only go down from here.

Bowl Picks 3

I apologize about the extra ads at the end of my posts. I'm not exactly sure what I did to get them there or how to get rid of them. Now, back to bowl talk:

Meineke Car Care Bowl. Wake Forest vs. UConn

Coaches Edsall and Grobe both deserve credit for leading their very small programs to relatively big-time success, but UConn’s co-championship this season is even more impressive considering that Wake’s Grobe can see more talent when he makes a trip to the grocery store than Edsall could find in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine combined. UConn has been stingy – in the top 25 in the nation in fewest interceptions (2^nd), fewest total turnovers (7^th), turnover margin (7^th), penalty yards (23^rd), and Pass D efficiency (6^th) – but WVU exposed a bad run defense. I don’t think Josh Adams is good enough to exploit that weakness.

The Matrix – UConn by 2.3, 69.4% against the spread

Liberty Bowl. Mississippi St. vs. UCF

Quoting Kevin Smith’s yardage understates his achievement this season. Some may argue that the yards are overstated by his 415 rushing attempts against the nation’s 91^st toughest schedule. But if Arkansas had played UCF’s schedule and McFadden had gotten those 111 additional carries, ceteris paribus, he would have finished with only 87 more yards than Smith – and McFadden is one of the more talented athletes to ever strap it up for a college football game (of course, ceteris are never paribus). The Bulldogs kept McFadden under 100 yards on 28 carries, a Herculean achievement, but have been too unpredictable this season for us to expect a similar performance against Kevin Smith.

The Matrix – UCF by 2.6, 48.9% against the spread

Alamo Bowl. Texas A&M vs. Penn State

I had the opportunity to watch the last match-up of these two teams in the Alamo Bowl and even got a live sighting of JoePa on the Riverwalk. As in ’99, Penn State is showcasing the nation’s best linebackers and one really old coach. Like the Texas team A&M beat to end the regular season, Penn State has been very efficient against the run and softer against the pass. If Penn State is not better prepared for the Aggie passing game than the Longhorns were, A&M could pull off another upset – or the Aggies might run it 30 times with their slow quarterback and not score until the 4^th quarter, but that’s less likely now that Fran has packed his bags.

The Matrix – Penn St. by 3.4, 42.9% against the spread

Independence Bowl. Alabama vs. Colorado

If the Saban-overhype hasn’t killed all the momentum in Alabama, these two 6-6 teams could be powerhouses again soon. But, for now, this game is terribly uninteresting. Both teams are relatively unremarkable on both sides of the ball and very unpredictable overall. I think they’d both be best to take a tie and not risk the sub .500 season. (Some of you may remember the "Strip Play". If you don't know it, look it up - that was a defining moment of may childhood.)

The Matrix – Alabama by 3.0, 48.6% against the spread

Armed Forces Bowl. California vs. Air Force

This is the bowl season’s most lopsided match-up in terms of talent – and in terms of attitude. If Jackson and Longshore are healthy, and Tedford can play a good shrink, Cal could win another bowl game by 30+. On the other hand, Air Force is 2nd in rushing yards (behind only Navy), one of the nation’s most effective offenses (12^th and 28^th opponent-adjusted run and pass efficiencies), and has averaged 37 points per contest over their last 6, compared to 19 for Cal, because there is natural ability behind the execution – and if you think the MWC is devoid of talent, just watch BYU/Oregon from last year.

The Matrix – Air Force by .2, 63.8% against the spread (and unaware of Longshore’s chipped ankle)

Humanitarian Bowl. Fresno St. vs. Georgia Tech

After the beatdown Georgia Tech gave to Notre Dame to start the season, I thought Georgia Tech was again going to be a force. To their credit, only two losses came against opponents that are currently unranked. Now headless and playing on blue turf, Georgia Tech yields the emotional initiative to Fresno State, who has played many of its biggest games of the Pat Hill era on that field.

The Matrix – Georgia Tech by 3.0, 45.5% against the spread

Quote of the day: I was taking a look at The Wizard of Odds and was directed to Tim Tebow Facts. One of the many factoids it offers: "There are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, Tim Tebow lives in Florida."